Posted on February 28, 2011 at 3:00 PM
Filed Under: Baltimore Orioles | Playing Pepper

It's been a long time since the glory days of Cal Ripken in the Charm City.  Ever since Jeffrey Meier interfered with Tony Tarasco in 1996, things have been on a downhill trajectory.  Can the birds reclaim that glorious history of the early part of their existence or are they doomed to become like the team they originated from, the St. Louis Browns?

A couple of Baltimore bloggers are going to try to answer that.  First up, the man that goes by the name Detective Tom Ludlow over at the blog Eutaw Street Hooligans.  The Hooligans have many writers and you can follow Tom on Twitter and the gang on Facebook.

Dan Soderberg provides another point of view on the Orioles.  Originally a writer for the blog Birds Watcher, he know can be found writing for the web site Splice Today.  You can also follow him on Twitter as well.

After the jump, find out if the Orioles can get out of the cellar and what exactly the deal with Matt Wieters is.

ESH: I have a somewhat mixed opinion of the Orioles offseason. The Orioles had several glaring holes coming into 2011 and they have certainly been adequately filled. Reynolds and Hardy were solid moves especially considering the cost and potential upside, they are also still relatively young and could stick around for a little while (Hardy only if he is extended). I thought Derrek Lee was a good signing considering the alternatives and he is not blocking anyone currently in the organization because the Orioles had absolutely nothing on hand at first base. Retaining Koji Uehara gives us a great option in the bullpen when he is healthy, guys with his command don't come around very often. Those are the moves I liked. 

The Kevin Gregg contract is a head scratcher to me. He is a good reliever but very comparable pitchers were signed for much less this offseason. Gregg has some saves attached to his name which seems to me to be the only reason he got a multi year deal. When you look at his career he has been an above average reliever, that is all. I don't see the logic in signing Gregg for what could end up being over 10 million dollars when there were guys like Rauch, Saito, Peralta, Delcarmen, and Farnsworth available much cheaper. 

Then we have the signing that everyone is still talking about, Vladimir Guerrero. The Guerrero acquisition is being sold to us in Baltimore as the big name, marquee, certified cleanup hitter we haven't had in years. I don't see it that way. I see him as a guy who will be a solid but unspectacular bat. He is showing serious signs of decline over the last several years despite a bit of a bounceback last year, he is 36 years old and just physically looks like he can't have much left to me. He had an awful second half of 2010 and then disappeared completely in the postseason. He can no longer play defense even in emergency situations and he is taking the place of what could possibly be a productive overall platoon of two talented players who are younger and under club control longer in Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold. I'm not sure how much better, if at all, the club will be with the addition of Guerrero. To top all of that off, they overpaid significantly to bring him in. In fact, it was significant enough that the club announced it's budget for 2011 had been surpassed and that 3 million of Guerrero's salary needed to be deferred to 2012 to afford it. We already volunteered to have payroll money tied up next year in a player that will not be under contract. So, in my mind they made a poor baseball move and a poor financial move all at once. 

The Orioles moves scream that they are attempting to win now but any objective observer can see that they aren't ready to win this division. They didn't make enough moves that will help them long term, but they didn't do anything that has the potential to destroy them long term either. Before the Guerrero move, I would have given the offseason a B grade but his signing moves it down to a C. 

DS: Thrilled. After years of half hearted efforts and a decade of "rebuilding" the O's finally added some actual Major leagues to the roster. Statheads and prospect geeks will complain about Vlad taking at bats away from Pie and Reimold, but those two have had ample chances. Vlad makes the Orioles a better team in 2011 and despite the struggles of the past decade winning still matters.

ESH: Matt Wieters has just over a year and a half of major league service, I think it is still much too early to definitely say what he is. Now, we have seen enough of him to temper expectations down from the .900+ OPS beast he was projected to be coming up as the best prospect in baseball but I still think we'd be quite disappointed if all he was was a .700ish defensive specialist. I still think Matt Wieters will end up being a very good player, but at this point I see his ceiling as a .800ish level hitter, which along with his defensive ability would make him a very very good player. However, the less reasonable side of me still hopes for the coming of the "Switch-hitting Jesus" everyone thought he was going to be, and the Orioles needed him to be. 

DS: Neither. I think Wieters will put up a near .800 OPS hitting near the bottom of the O's revamped order.

ESH: I hope and think that he can. Except for a brief stretch of horrible outings Matusz had an excellent first season last year. Matusz is a very cerebral type pitcher to go along with above average stuff. Matusz ended the year on an absolutely brilliant run and I think he should be able to carry that over into next season. The more experienced he got last year, the better he seemed to pitch. I think the Brian Matusz we saw in the second half of 2010 is going to be the Brian Matusz we will see more often than not throughout his career. He has the brains, stuff, and command when he is right to be a very good pitcher for a long time. 

DS: Yes. If the Orioles are ever to climb their way into contention it will be on the shoulders of Matusz and [Jake] Arrieta. Matusz was outstanding after Showalter took over last season. He locates the ball well and mixes up his pitches. He has a chance to be a real good one. There's no reason to think he can't continue last summer's success.

ESH: The Orioles farm system has dropped like a rock since the beginning of last season. The system's top high level prospects either graduated to the majors or suffered serious setbacks in their development. Josh Bell's season at Norfolk along with his tumultuous time in the majors sent his stock plummeting, and several others floundered or had serious injury. 

The only real high level prospect with a chance to make a serious impact at the major league level this year is Zach Britton. Britton will come into camp as one of the top 25ish prospects in baseball and will "compete" for a starting rotation spot. The signing of Justin Duchscherer however pretty much punched his ticket to AAA, along with Chris Tillman. It is likely that Tillman would have had the spot before Britton also, and rightfully so since it would not be smart to start his service time clock with other options available. However, if healthy, Britton will see significant time in the majors in 2011 at some point, and he has the talent to make an impact immediately. 

DS: Probably not. Zach Britton is the clear choice here, but he's behind Tillman on the depth chart. It's likely that Tillman and Britton both start the season in the Minors wit Tillman getting the first crack at a mid-season promotion. There's no reason to start the clock ticking on Britton, or eat up an option, before necessary. Plus the O's really need to see what they have, or don't have, in Chris Tillman. My guess is Britton gets a few starts in August or September.

DS: I think this team can win 75-78 games. I'll go with a predicted record of 77-85 and a 4th place finish. They're better than Toronto, but not nearly good enough to overtake Tampa unless that Rays bullpen is a real mess, which could happen.