Grading the Cardinals III: Starting Rotation

We’ve done the fun part, looking over the surprisingly productive hitters .  Now we start excavating through the remains of a pitching staff.  Today’s subject group of starters was pretty good, though, which is one of the reasons the Cards finished 10 games over .500.

Remember, also, that the next portion of the UCB roundtable will be up at Rockin' the Red sometime today, so check that out.

To the pitchers........

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Adam Wainwright: A-.  Derrick Goold tried to quantify what missing Wainwright for 13 starts did for the club.  However, some things just aren’t able to be recorded statistically.  Wainwright has moved past Chris Carpenter as the ace and heartbeat of the squad.  Even if Carpenter comes back truly healthy, I believe this is Wainwright’s team now.

Losing him to the strange finger injury during a game with the Astros sent shockwaves around Cardinal Nation, for good reason.  While pitchers like Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer are good, solid pitchers and really fill out a squad well, you need an ace like Wainwright to stop losing streaks and continue winning ones.  Wainwright has stepped up his game and been that ace.

When he did pitch, Wainwright put together the numbers you would expect from him.  An occasional blip, like the one against Pittsburgh late in the year, but other than that you could expect a low-scoring, smooth-flowing game when Adam took the hill and most Cardinal fans really appreciate that.

Kyle Lohse: B.  Twice in the season, Lohse hit an ugly skid where he had trouble getting anyone out.  Especially the first time but even somewhat the second, many people wondered if he was reverting back to his old form or hitting a wall.  But both times Lohse responded, finally ending the streak and putting together a new one of good outings.

Management thought he did well enough to earn a four-year contract after the season.  Some fans disagreed with the length, but there weren’t many that thought he should walk entirely, a situation that was completely different when he was signed late in spring training.  At that time, a lot of people didn’t think the Cardinals needed him.  Of course, that was assuming Anthony Reyes was going to get a fair shake, something that didn’t seem to happen.

While signing Lohse may have been an insurance move in Mozeliak’s mind, it turned out to be the best type of insurance policy—low premiums and great returns.  When Carpenter didn’t return as quickly, Mark Mulder didn’t really return at all (if you block out those couple of starts where he tried) and Matt Clement didn’t even make it to the majors, that injury calvary that the front office kept talking about never materialized.  Without Lohse and his clicking with Dave Duncan on how to pitch, the season could have easily gotten away from the Cardinals.

Braden Looper: B.  I’ve never been just a huge Looper fan.  I thought the idea to convert him into a starter was nonsensical, that he was a little overrated for his 2007 which was OK but not as great as some made it out to be, and that he’d hit that innings wall and start blowing up.  While I am still convinced of the middle point, the other two have been pretty well disproven.

Looper earned a lot of respect from me when he had that stretch of games where he went 7 innings and was allowing two or fewer runs.  As a former reliever, I wasn’t sure he’d be able to ever go deep into games, but he proved me wrong in ‘08.  He’d make a few missteps along the way, sure, but every one of the starters had that.  By the middle of the season, you knew that if Looper was pitching, chances are the Cardinals were going to be in the game.  And you can’t ask for much more than that.

The decision to sign Lohse to an extension probably means the end of Looper in a Cardinal uniform, but he should be welcomed back as a “true Cardinal” (if there is such a thing) wherever he might land for next year.  You have to tip your hat to his professionalism and his results.

Todd Wellemeyer: B.  Another one of Dave Duncan’s projects that has gone right.  There’s a reason Duncan is considered one of, if not the best pitching coaches in the majors and would quickly follow Leo Mazzone into the Hall of Fame if they ever opened the doors for coaches to get in there.  It’s hard for us to remember that Wellemeyer was DFAd by the Royals, of all people, as a washed-up reliever.  Do you think that, in his spare time, Duncan drives around town looking for furniture left out for the trash man, takes it home, fixes it up, and resells it?

Wellemeyer has moved himself into the Lohse/Looper category of solid, reliable pitchers.  They may not be strikeout machines or dominating starters, but they go out there and give the team a reasonable chance to win.  Wellemeyer may have done too much too early this year, because after being Pitcher of the Month in May, he went on a stretch where the ERA climbed and the wins didn’t.  He was able to right the ship, though, and finish the season on a strong note.  It should be another good season with him in the #3/#4 slot in the rotation.

Chris Carpenter: B.  When he was out there, he reminded us why he was Cy Young.  The problem was, he just wasn’t out there enough.  After some talk of him returning at the All-Star Break, it was almost August before he made his start against the Braves.  It didn’t take long for him to shake of the rust and get back into the groove.  That groove didn’t last long, however, as he left his third start (against the Cubs) with the injury that was later diagnosed as the nerve injury he’s dealing with now.  He returned to pitch a couple of innings in relief late in September before shutting it down for the year.

We saw just enough of Carpenter to be tantalized.  A healthy Carp and Wainwright in the same rotation?  The poker players know that having pocket aces is a darn good way to go through life.  (Of course, it’s painful when aces get cracked, as the Brewers and Cubs are finding out.)  The news that he was just going to do the rest and rehab route this offseason instead of surgery really troubles some people (yeah, that’d be me) who seem to have heard this song and dance before.  If it works, great.  But the injury is rare enough to be career-threatening, it seems, so the vision of him and the Wagonmaker together may never be fully realized.

Joel Pineiro: C-.  A lot of us said, when the Cards signed him last year after the season, that a two-year contract for a guy that had basically had two good months may not have been the best idea.  That was confirmed last year, as Pineiro’s results weren’t up to the par he had set in the last couple of months of 2007.  Pineiro had the amazing ability to blow just about any lead he was handed.  No matter the size or when it was given, most people came to hold their breath for the rest of the game (since usually the bullpen wasn’t much better).

Pineiro makes up the fourth confirmed man of the 2009 rotation.  It’s a move that may come back to haunt Mozeliak this offseason  as he tries to make moves and juggle money.  Pineiro’s not easily traded and may clog up more resources than the benefits he provides. 

Mitchell Boggs: C.  Boggs was one that spent time in the rotation and in the pen, but he got more starts than anything so we’ll slide him in here.  Boggs had some very solid outings and worked himself into contention for a slot in next year’s rotation, especially as management, including the front office, are very high on him.  He’s never going to be ace material, but he can eat some innings fairly effectively, if he builds on what he showed this year.

Matt Clement and Mark Mulder: D-.  What do you call a cavalry that doesn’t arrive?  Clement at least cost little in money, but being that he was supposed to be completely healthy and ready for the opening roster when he was signed, that’s small comfort.  To see him released in August was a bit of a surprise, but it was a rare case of the Cardinals knowing when to cut their losses.

As for Mulder…..it’d probably been better if he hadn’t made it back.  His short stint was just enough to put some hope in the Nation before bringing it crashing down with a couple of terrible slots and yet another injury.  Mulder wants to come back, but I believe even this ownership will let him look elsewhere for work next year.  Ironically, that Mulder trade has been about as bad as it was thought to be at the time, but for different reasons.  People expected Daric Barton to be the next Pujols.  With him moving out of the catcher role, his value takes a drop and he hasn’t shown exceptional stuff at the major leagues.  If Dan Haren had been more of a pedestrian pitcher instead of an All-Star, you might be able to call the deal a wash.

Starting pitcher incompletes: Mike Parisi.

Well, we’ve put it off long enough.  Tomorrow, we get into the relievers.