Looking Back At The Predictions

While I’m in the process of giving the Cardinals their grades for the season, it seems only fair to take a look back at my preseason predictions to see just how accurate I really was.  Talk about an exercise in humility!  And look to the end for my picks for each LCS so you know what is not going to happen.

We'll compare each standing position to the predicted one, with the variance noted.  So if I picked a team third and they finished first, that's +2.  Not two points to me, just the difference in the selection.




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What went right: Well, Baltimore was as bad as I thought. And I was pretty close on Boston as well, as they were in the race for the top spot until the last week.

What went wrong: Tampa Bay blew a lot of people’s sheets, I think. I thought they’d make a step up this year, but all the way to the top? Nobody saw that coming. Anyone that tells you differently is selling something.




What went right: Not much, though Cleveland was just a little worse (standings-wise) than I thought.

What went wrong: Mainly Detroit. A team that I selected to win the division wound up behind even the Royals. Not much salvaging picks when that happens. Chicago’s rise was a little unexpected as well, though I did think it’d be a fairly competitive division when I picked them fourth.




What went right: If you look at it one way, I got three teams in order. I knew it’d be LA, followed by Texas, followed by Oakland.

What went wrong: The problem was, I had all of those teams behind Seattle, who decided that a huge payroll doesn’t have to buy you any sort of success.




What went right: A close-but-no-cigar division. Almost had a number of picks right, but none panned out with the Mets slumping in the last couple of weeks.

What went wrong: Nothing dramatic, though Florida was much stronger than I expected.

 

What went right: Hey, I know the Cardinals! And I got the gimme of the Pirates as well.

What went wrong: Cincinnati wasn’t nearly the team that I thought they were and Houston was much stronger than expected. And, of course, the Cubs won the division, which always goes into the “what went wrong” category.




What went right: Colorado slipped to the middle of the pack, just as I predicted.

What went wrong: San Diego. How in the world did this team collapse to last place, especially in a division with the Giants?

Let’s take a look at the LDS for a minute, then.

What went right: Quite a bit. Picked the Dodgers, the Rays and the Phillies, with only Boston ruining perfection. Plus I got the Rays and Phillies in 4, which was nice. And the Boston/LA series did go 4, like I said.

What went wrong: Boston, plus the Cubs fell faster than I thought.

So let’s take a look at the LCS before they get started on Thursday.

In the National League, it should be a good series between the Dodgers and Phillies. The Dodgers are getting that “2006 Cardinals” vibe about them. They only won 84 regular season games, but everyone is healthy and things are clicking now. That said, I do think the Phillies are the stronger team. They rate just slightly better in both the offense and the pitching than the Dodgers. I wouldn’t be too surprised for a low scoring series. That said, I think the Phillies take it in 6.

The American League gives us two AL East teams. That part isn’t too surprising, but it’s usually New York and Boston battling, not Boston and Tampa Bay! I know the Rays won the season series against the Sox. I know that they actually won in Boston late in the year. I also don’t think the Rays will choke or get tight due to the pressure, because they aren’t supposed to be there. But Boston has the experience and a very good team of their own. I think, sadly (because I’d much rather see the Rays move on) that the Red Sox win in 6 as well.

October baseball is always a lot of fun, isn’t it?