More UCB: Answering the YNOT

Quick background on the whole YNOT thing can be found here, under History, but the basic concept is this.  Generally, every series during the year is preceded by a YNOT game, in which 10 questions are asked (plus a tiebreaker) about the upcoming games.  Then they are graded after the series to see who won.  It's also been expanded to cover different periods of time, which is where we come in today.  The season-long YNOT is up at CardsClubhouse (get over there and fill it out if you haven't!) and the United Cardinal Bloggers are going to put up their answers, with explanations.  As typical, I'll post links here when they get them up.

So jump with me and let's see what we can see...........



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Also on the Network: √ Doing It The Hard Way [C70 At The Bat] √ Bobby Jenks Saves Sox's Win Over Seattle [Tremendous Upside Potential] √ Deadline moves [Feeling Dodger Blue] √ Manny's impact [Feeling Dodger Blue] √ Shea Stadium Plays Citi Field [Loge 13] √ Frustration Revisted [C70 At The Bat] √ Not So Fast, T-Mac [Tremendous Upside Potential] √ Payroll breakdown [Feeling Dodger Blue]

1. When will Rasmus make his debut?

It's a multiple choice answer, and I put down June.  I'm not entirely confident on that, but Rasmus has been known to struggle at a level when he first gets there.  Couple that with the fact that the outfield may be fairly static for a while (barring injury) and June seems reasonable.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was up earlier, though.

2. Will the Cardinals win more games than the Astros?

I've already noted that I expect the Cards to finish higher than the team from Houston, and I have no reason to answer anything but yes here.

3. Will Mozeliak make a trade in July?

I'm going yes here as well, but I'm not entirely sure of the motivation behind the trade.  If the Cardinals are out of it, there are a lot of spare parts that could be shipped off for prospects.  If the Cardinals are still in the running, they could bring in a piece that could help them over the top.  I expected this to be more of a fire sale type of answer, but now I think with the return to health of people like Mulder and Clement, Mo could make some moves from a position of strength to shore up other weaknesses.

4. Will Adam Kennedy hit over .250?

Call me Mr. Positive, but I'm going to go with yes.  Kennedy can't be as bad as he was last year and he's swung a fairly decent bat in spring training.  I don't know that it'll be much over that number, but he will top the .250 mark.

5. Where will the Cardinals finish in the NL Central?

I've said fourth and I'm going to stick with that right now, but I will say that this spring has gotten my optimistic juices flowing. If the offense clicks like it looks like it might and the pitching staff improves over last year, along with the "calvary" in the form of the rehabbing pitchers, they could make a run this year.  However, there are a lot of ifs to that statement and you know all of them can't break the Cards way.

6. Will Pujols hit .300, score 100 runs, hit 30 HR and drive in 100 runs?

I went with the No, he'll miss two or more categories option because of the elbow issue.  Not that I expect it to affect his season--it sure hasn't affected his spring--but that he might shut it down and have surgery if the Cards get out of the race.  If he plays all year, though, he'll get them all the way he's swinging the bat.

7. How many baserunners will Molina catch stealing (within 2)?

Last year, Yadier got 27 of the 50 runners that tried to take an extra base on him.  66 tried to run on him two years ago.  I figure that fewer and fewer are going to run, so I'll go with 18.

8. How many home runs will Glaus hit, within 1?

He's got some injury history and I hate to get too optimistic on him, but I would expect he'll blow my prediction out of the water if his all-around spring is any indication.  18 sounds good here as well, but again, it could be much higher.

9. How many Cardinals will be selected to the All-Star Game?

I'm taking 2.  Pujols is a given, of course.  If he keeps his pitching to the level we saw in the second half last year, Adam Wainwright could be the other.  Others under consideration:  Jason Isringhausen, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus.

10. How many errors will Izturis make?

I filled this out well before the heart of the spring training season.  And while I could change it, I'm probably just as likely to get it right from my gut as I am with deep study.  So it's pretty interesting/ironic/sad that my answer of 6 is less than his spring error total.  Of course, if he makes too many and doesn't hit, it's possible that Brendan Ryan could take his job.  Wait, he did that in the spring?  And Ryan didn't?

11. How many home runs will Duncan and Ankiel combine for, within 3?

This is another one that has me worried after looking at the spring stats.  However, both of these guys have a ton of power.  It might be their only skill at the plate, but they've got that.  (OK, they've got a few others as well.)  If Duncan can get off his spring training slide, hopefully they'll get close to my projection of 48.

12. How many games out will the Cardinals finish, within 2?

My answer is 13.5.  (The half is to give me a little more wiggle room.)  I'm thinking the Cards either stay in the mix and fade late or win some games when the entire pitching staff is healthy and cut into the lead in September.  If this holds and the Cards do finish fourth, the NL Central should be a fun race to watch.

13. How many games will Wainwright win?

I believe that the second half was for real.  I believe that Wainwright has got the makeup to be one of the next big young starters.  I believe he's the ace of this staff in name and deed.  I believe that he'll win 14 games.

14. How many winning months will the Cardinals have?

I put down 2, but I'm not completely sold on that.  I would expect they'll have a couple of months that they'll just be under the .500 mark, like 12-13 or something like that.

15. What will Franklin's ERA be, within .10?

Last year was a career year for Ryan Franklin.  His 3.04 ERA was the lowest of his career and the first time since 2003 it was under 4.00.  He adapted well to the eighth-inning role.  You figure that his ERA should go up some, but his new role should keep it better than most of his career.  I'm going with 3.58.

16. How many starts will Mulder make, within 1?

All the news out of the spring camps is good when it relates to Mark Mulder.  He's on the pitching program instead of the rehab program, which means he's just getting into game shape now.  A return in May seems pretty reasonable.  Put it all together and we will see 18 (yes, it keeps popping up) starts from him.

17. Who will win the season series between the Cardinals and the Cubs?

Obviously, the Cardinals.  I refuse to pick Chicago for anything other than to celebrate 100 non-Championship years.

18. Will Isringhausen save 30 games?

Unless the Cards trade him off in July, I don't think you could answer this with anything but yes.

19. Will Carpenter return before August?

The news on Carpenter has been pretty positive this spring, but he is coming back from Tommy John surgery.  I know the rehab times on these things are getting shorter and shorter, but I just can't see a quick return.  My answer is no.  August would be about when we'd expect to see him.

20. Will the team have an ERA under 4.60?

Things have to be better than last year from the pitching standpoint.  The starters were horrendous last year and they should be much improved this year.  I think you can say that, yes, the staff ERA will be below 4.60.

Tiebreaker: Total attendance at Busch Stadium in 2008.

Still got some newness of the ballpark (though not much) and the team should be at least worth watching.  Plus, if Pujols starts pushing toward record heights, you won't be able to find a ticket.  I'm going with 3,108,070.