Slippery Slope

Two days ago, the Cardinals were on a three-game winning streak, had a 3 game lead in the Central, and were four outs away from pushing the lead up half a game and winning the series against the Rockies.

Now, the Cards have lost two in a row for the first time in two weeks (since their back to back losses to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh April 22-23), have a two game lead on the Cubs and face a Milwaukee team that would love to add to their misery.

It's starting to look like there was a reason Kyle Lohse was on the market as long as he was.  In his last two starts, his ERA has risen from 2.36 to 4.87.  15 earned runs in 10 innings will do that to a person.  Just a rough check on his peripherals from his last two starts compared to his first six.  (I've not figured out tables here yet, so bear with the presentation.)

             H/IP              K/BB            GB/FB       K/9
First 6    0.93              1.75               1.80         3.67
Last 2    1.70              0.57               1.75         3.60

He's giving up more hits and walks.  When your K rate is as low as that (and, again, thanks to Rockin' the Red for bringing that to my attention during the UCB project), you can't get out of those jams.  More and more wood is being put on the ball, which means more hits, which means he's more careful, which leads to more walks, which is just ugly.

BTW, where does he stand in the K/9 category, minimum 20 innings?  159th, just ahead of Matt Morris.  Heck, even Jamie Moyer is higher up on the list than he is.  You can pitch this way, but you've got to be very careful.

Ryan Ludwick gets the rare back-to-back Hero award for his two home run day.  If it wasn't for Ankiel's superhuman throwing abilities, he'd have a three-gamer going. In some regards, he was the offense in this series, at least the last three games.  9 for 13 with 6 extra base hits?  I don't care what hand the starter throws with tonight, he should be in the lineup.

Now the Cards have to regroup and see if they can't get back on the winning track against a fairly familiar opponent.  The Cards have already had five games against the Brewers, going to Milwaukee a couple weeks back (part of that last two-game losing streak mentioned above).  The Cards have won three of five, with the two losses wild extra-inning affairs, the first where they blew a 3-0 lead in the eighth and lost in the 10th, the second when they made a big comeback, played Pujols at second and lost in 12.  The Brewers have lost six in a row and ESPN's Accuscore has the Cards as a slight favorite tonight.

The Cardinals should be fairly familiar with tonight's starter.  Manny Parra has already pitched twice against the Redbirds, fashioning a 6.00 ERA and allowing 14 hits and 7 walks against them in nine innings, but has yet to factor into a decision.  On the whole, the Cardinals have done well against him, though Ludwick has the only home run.

St. Louis counters with Todd Wellemeyer, who actually has missed the Brewers so far this year.  Wellemeyer is basically a blank slate to the Brewers, as the person that has seen him most, Jason Kendall, has all of four plate appearances against him.

It's on the road, where the Cards aren't quite as dominant, but they should have a good chance of stopping the streak and getting back on track tonight.


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