The Line Is Drawn

They invade our space, and we fall back...Not again. The line must be drawn here! This far and no further...
--Jean-Luc Picard, First Contact

OK, so maybe the Brewers aren't really the Borg.  (If you want, the Cubs could fit that analogy this year, just so relentlessly evil.)  Still, this two game series that starts tonight is where the Cardinals must draw the line.  A sweep, and they stay fairly relevant in the wild-card race, only 1.5 out.  A split keeps them 3.5 out, but with only 28 games left and the Brewers with the easier schedule.  And, obviously, if they are swept they start playing out the string and getting a look at the young guys next week.

The last time the Brewers came to Busch (or, shall we say, invaded Redbird space) they swept the four game series right after the All-Star Break.  The Cardinals can't fall back again.

The Cards are 4-9 against the Brewers this year, though they've had their chances.  Milwaukee can't throw Sabathia, which is to St. Louis's advantage.  And, apparently, there will be no chance the Cardinals aren't fired up for this series after some perceived extracurricular celebratory gestures in the last series.

So let's line out who's going tonight.  Obviously, the Cardinals would like to have Carpenter going.  Failing that (and with Wainwright going tomorrow night), Todd Wellemeyer isn't a bad choice.  Wellemeyer has a nice 2.13 ERA for the month, getting back to his May form after a couple of rough months.  He has no decisions against the Brewers this season, but has thrown 11 innings in 2 games and has fashioned a 1.64 ERA.  Historically, the Brewers haven't done much against him, though not a huge sample size.

Ben Sheets is, with reason, considered one of the best pitchers in the National League.  But while he's been good against the Cardinals this year, he's not been just overwhelmingly dominant, posting a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings.  Like Wellemeyer, he's not had a decision in the two games he's pitched.  Some of the Cardinals have pretty good historical numbers against him, with (no surprise) Albert Pujols leading the way.  However, I'd be surprised if Albert gets a lot to hit tonight if they don't have to.  Milwaukee won't let him beat them. 

This is a rematch of the July 24th game.  The Cardinals held a 3-2 lead in the ninth before blowing the game.  Get the game to the same point tonight and most of Cardinal Nation would be fine, feeling that the bullpen is much better than it was a month ago.

St. Louis is playing meaningful baseball the last week of August, which is worlds better than most of us expected.  A win tonight, with Wainwright going tomorrow, could make September relevant as well.


Leave a comment