UCB Week, Day 4: NL Central Picks

All week the United Cardinal Bloggers have been making our picks for how the divisions will turn out this year.  Finally, we turn our attention to the division we should know the best, the NL Central.  As always, you can check out the other blogs.  CardinalsGM, Redbird Ramblings and The Redbird Blog have been active in this project this week and CardinalNationGlobe is up today as well.

1. Milwaukee

A year older, a year wiser.  That is the conventional wisdom regarding the Brewers.  The young team that made a run last year should be able to finish the job this year.

That's probably true.  The offense won't be a problem, with players like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy and a bounceback candidate in Rickie Weeks.  Mike Cameron should help with the defense (as well as moving Braun to the outfield), so what's the problem?

The issue could be the pitching.  Ben Sheets is amazing--when he's healthy.  Problem is, that's not all that often.  Yovani Gallardo appears to be a stud, but will be a sophomore and thus possibly affected by "the jinx".  We love Jeff Suppan for what he did in St. Louis, but he slumped in the second half last year and is getting to the end of his career.  Add to these facts an unsettled bullpen and there could be some bumps in the road for Milwaukee in 2008.

2. Chicago

I wanted to pick the Reds here, but when it came down to it, that was more because of my anti-Cub feelings than anything else.  Chicago will have another good team in 2008, which will probably blow up somehow because back-to-back good teams for the Cubs don't happen but once every 50 years or so.

The Cubs spent a lot of money on Kosuke Fukudome in the offseason, a player compared to Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui, but considered lesser than both of them.  Still, if he's able to get on base and be a solid outfielder, that's about all they'll need with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.  Whether the offense will be sufficient or not may depend on what they get out of Felix Pie.

The pitching should be somewhat of a concern.  Carlos Zambrano is the ace, but you never know when he's going to blow up.  Ted Lilly had a good year in his transition to the NL, but will the hitters catch up to him?  Rich Hill looked good, but a lot of his damage was done in April.  Still, he's a young guy that can continue to improve.  If Jason Marquis is in the rotation, well, that means trouble for the Cubbies.  Ryan Dempster doesn't inspire that much confidence as well.  As for the closer, that'll be an interesting battle that could be won by someone with no closing experience, which can be dangerous.



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3. Cincinnati

Like I said, I wanted to put the Reds in the second slot.  I personally think they could be a sleeper to win the whole division.  The key for them is to have the youth pan out.

When you play half your games in Great American Ballpark, you aren't going to have a lot of trouble scoring runs, and the Reds have a lineup that takes advantage of that, especially when Ken Griffey is healthy enough to be in the lineup.  Adam Dunn is hit or miss, but his hits go a long way.  Brandon Phillips has apparently blossomed into the player people thought he could be.  Add in young guys like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and the runs will come.

The pitching staff is a different story, but there has been improvement here as well.  Aaron Harang may be the quietest ace in baseball and Bronson Arroyo gives a solid #2.  If Homer Bailey comes along like they expect, this should be a solid rotation.  Signing Francisco Cordero to close games helped plug a leak from last year.   Keep an eye on Cincinnati this year.

4. St. Louis

Not much needs to be said here, since we devote so much time to the Cards on a regular basis.  I still think the pitching will be better than people think and good years from Pujols and Glaus will go a long way toward holding off the rest of the division.

5. Houston

The Astros made a big splash by bringing in Miguel Tejada from Baltimore.  Most people tend to think they overpayed, but it does mark a bit of a first for the 'Stros.  It is probably the first time in the last few years that the offense is considered the strength of the team, rather than the pitching staff.

Along with Tejada, you have Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee to anchor the lineup.  The most intriguing facet of the lineup could be Michael Bourn at the top of it.  Will the Astros start running more?  It does give them another weapon.

The pitching staff has Roy Oswalt.  Other than that, there's not much more than league-average pitchers, at best.  The closer role is locked down by Jose Valverde, who has been pretty good in Arizona the last couple of years, so if they can get a lead to the ninth, they should be OK.  But getting there could be the tricky part.

6. Pittsburgh

Probably the easiest selection in the division.  Pittsburgh continues its long-term building plan.  There are some glimmers of hope, but there's still a long road ahead of them.

Lots of unfamiliar names dot the roster, but they still have Jason Bay, who needs to rebound from a down year, and Adam LaRoche.  Jack Wilson will catch most everything that comes his way, though he probably won't hit as well as he did last year.  There is some catching pop with Ronny Paulino and Ryan Doumit.

The pitching staff has a lot of potential in Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm.  Former Cardinal favorite Matt Morris is there as well, though definitely on the downside of his career.  Matt Capps has developed into a fairly solid closer, though how many opportunities he'll have is up in the air.

That'll do it for the UCB for a while.  Next up is our answers to this YNOT coming on March 28.

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