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Cardinal Nation: June 2011

The State of the Cardinals - No Worries, Mates

Posted on June 13, 2011 at 10:31 PM
For the first time in quite a while, the St. Louis Cardinals are not in first place in the National League Central. Uh oh. Everyone brought a pail? No, folks. You don't have to start bailing water yet. The Milwaukee Brewers are red hot. The Reds and Pirates are hanging in there. It's a long, long season and there is plenty of time. Yes, it's possible for the Brewers to keep playing this way all season, but the odds are against it. The Cardinals do have some problems, injuries being one of them. But they aren't broken.

In fact, the Cardinals have several things going for them. First, they have Tony LaRussa. Love him or hate him, his record speaks for itself. Second, they have a solid offense, especially once Matt Holliday returns (which is any day now). Put Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Colby Rasmus against just about every other middle of the order in the National League and you've got something there. Yadier Molina is hitting. We'll get to the rest of the line up in a minute. Lastly, they have plenty of pitching to stay in the race.

What? You are worried about the pitching? You still think the sky is falling? Nah. Some adjustments need to be made. But again, we'll get to them in a minute. For now, let's defer speaking of Chris Carpenter. Kyle Lohse has been very good. Sure, you have to hold your breath at times when he's on the mound, the same as Jake Westbrook. But Lohse is keeping the ball inside the park and keeping free passes to a minimum. That's golden in this writer's book. You have to think about Jake Westbrook as a fifth starter. If your fifth starter can win half his games, that's good. Westbrook gives you that. It may not look pretty. But as a fifth starter, he's a darn sight better than Zach Duke or Doug Davis or a lot of the other options around the league.

Jaime Garcia is a legitimate ace. Yes, he'll have a bad game or two. But for the most part, he's your stopper. And most of the time, he's doing just that. Kyle McClellan was exceeding most people's expectations and his numbers look a whole lot like what Adam Wainwright would be doing if he wasn't rehabbing his surgically repaired elbow. But now McClellan has a strained hip flexor (whatever that is). This is actually a good thing. What!? It is. You had to watch his innings anyway because you can't have a guy who was a reliever pitching 220 innings. You simply can't do that. This gives the Cardinals a built-n chance to rest the guy for a bit.

McClellan threw a bullpen session and is eligible to come off the disabled list on Thursday. This writer would hold him out another week or two. Lance Lynn did a fine job and despite a 5.23 ERA, his numbers were actually better than that. A little luck here and there and his run total would look a lot better. His strikeout to walk ratio was just fine. He only gave up the one homer. Give him two more starts and give McClellan a break. Get McClellan good and healthy and he can knock out the rest of the year. 

Okay, we need to discuss Chris Carpenter. He's 1-6. Chris Carpenter one and six. Seems strange doesn't it? Would you believe the old Fan if he were to claim Carpenter's results as a fluke? The only statistic that looks out of place are his hits allowed and his home run to fly ball ratio. Everything else is the same as always. Let that last line sink in. The home run percentage is 1.0 per nine innings. That's pretty much out of character for Carpenter. But it isn't terrible and can be easily remedied. But what about all those hits? It's about defense.

This old Fan is completely convinced that other than a few homers, the only difference between Chris Carpenter this year and any other year is the defense behind him. Need proof? Okay. Just look at his BABIP. The last two years, Carpenter's BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, has been in the .284/.285 range. This year, it's sitting at .332. The difference is subtle on ground balls (his bread and butter). Last year, his BABIP on ground balls was .223. This year, it's .235. That doesn't seem like much, but it is a difference. Add to that fact is that the line drives hit off of him are also finding more holes. Last year, his BABIP on line drives was .670. This year, it's .746. As wonderful as Lance Berkman's season is going, he simply isn't going to get to some of those gap shots like other outfielders will.

So what should the Cardinals do when Carpenter starts? Put your best fielders on the field. Give Berkman a day off or put him at first and Pujols at third. When Nick Punto comes off the disabled list (which is soon it seems), put him at short on games Carpenter starts and avoid putting Schumaker at second. Give the team every chance to field the ball and Carpenter will give you what he's always given you. Plus, Carpenter, despite his record, has been very good so far in June.

The infield has been a bit of a mess, hasn't it? This writer said it before the year started and will state it again: Signing Ryan Theriot to play short was a bad idea. The guy has been fine (for him) on offense. But his defense is not good. He has little range, little arm and few instincts. Baseball-reference.com gives him a WAR this season of 0.1. He does a little better with Fangraphs, which gives him a WAR of 0.5. This writer doesn't really have a problem with Theriot as your second baseman. But not at short. Never at short.

The problem for the Cardinals is that their minor league system doesn't have anyone ready to play short. Pete Kozma is the regular at Triple A and he lacks range too and Theriot is a better hitter. Taking a quick peak at the Double A level is pointless because the Cardinals would never go that deep in a pennant race. A trade seems the only solution. Tyler Greene isn't the answer, that's for sure.

David Freese breaking his hand was unfortunate for the Cardinals. He's a good third baseman and can hit when healthy. But that's always been the problem. Until (and if) he gets back, a platoon of Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso works just fine.

It's sort of ironic that in the beginning of the year, the bullpen was atrocious and the Cardinals (despite five blown saves) managed to obtain first place. Now that the bullpen has come together, the team has fallen out of first. But the good news is that the Cardinals have figured out the bullpen. Fernando Salas is among the league leaders in WAR for relief pitchers. He has three wins (against no losses) and eleven saves and a sparkling 1.82 ERA. Establishing Salas as the closer set up the rest of the bullpen. Eduardo Sanchez and Jason Motte have been terrific. Mitchell Boggs has come on strong and has very good peripherals. Brian Tallot (when he is used properly and isn't giving up homers), can get lefties out. That's a good core for your bullpen. No worries there. Seriously.

In conclusion, yes, it was a bad series in Milwaukee. Pujols got quiet again after it seemed he got hot again. But Holliday is on his way back, Lance Berkman has been an on base machine. Colby Rasmus has learned the strike zone and this team will score runs. The rotation is pretty solid and the bullpen is exceptional now. Figure out the infield and there is no reason this team can't roll along and compete well with the Brewers and anyone else in their division. Put those pails away, folks. There's only a little standing water in the good ship, Cardinals.

William J. Tasker writes every day as the Flagrant Fan over at his site. A generalist, he's not a Cardinal fan but has fallen in love with the team's fans and writers. That growing respect for the Cardinal Nation lead to this guest post for this site's featured writer, who is on vacation.
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Heroes
Matt Carpenter (4)
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Rafael Furcal (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
David Freese (2)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Yadier Molina (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
David Freese (2)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
Jason Motte (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Marc Rzepczynski (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 10
Happy Flight %: 70%

Through 5/15

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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