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Hot Stove Stoked On Pujols Rumors

Posted on December 6, 2011 at 7:24 AM
When I went to bed last night, I was feeling fairly good about the Cardinals and their talks with Albert Pujols.  I mean, they had an hour-long meeting with Dan Lozano and things looked to be moving in the right direction.  This morning, not so much.

Reports are that the Marlins have upped their offer.  It seems to be a ten-year deal, which is obviously longer than the Cards had been wanting.  It may be time to panic, according to Joe Strauss.  You can find the best roundup of the links relating to this offer over here.

The Cardinals are meeting again today with the Pujols camp and they are expected to offer a modified proposal, which is news in and of itself as the Cards have been steadfastly refusing to change what they offered back in the spring.  With this push by the Marlins, they've probably been forced to at least ante up a little bit to stay in the hand.

Oh, and it seems not all is well within the Pujols camp, since it seems Deidre Pujols wants new representation for her husband after all the recent allegations.  As I've stated before, I agree with her.  It's not the best testimony to his character if these things are true, and apparently Mrs. Pujols believes that they are.  

There are also reports that the relationship between Pujols and the team has been strained over the last couple of years--something that would be interesting to know more about.  What caused that?  Which side is at fault?  Why wouldn't you be on the best of terms with your star player?

All of this is likely to provoke a flurry of blog posts, Twitter comments and other reactions from the fan base.  (You know, like this one.)  And yet, hard as it is to say, we need to hear that classic piece of advice.


Let's take a look at this situation rationally.  We know there are two things that Albert wants, right?  (At least, we think we do.)  He wants to be very well paid, and he wants to win.

The Marlins, at least for right now, can give him the first.  They can top out their payroll, splurge on all the big ticket items, run up their credit card.  Perhaps all of that, and the new stadium, can buy him a few years in Miami.  I mean, who is the face of that franchise, Jeff Conine?  Even he didn't play his whole career there.

However, there's a reason they won't give out no trade clauses in that part of Florida.  The Marlins' history has more binging and purging than fashion week in New York.  The Marlins are offering a 10-year contract, but I'm pretty sure the odds of him being in Miami even six years from now might be 3,720 to one.

Also, Pujols has played down in Miami.  While the new stadium and this offseason spending spree might get a temporary buzz going in the area, the chances are that in two or three years, no matter how good the team is, there are still going to be a lot of nights when there are more empty seats than fans in the place. How much fun could it be to play in front of a fairly apathetic fan base like that?  Again, I know they've brought in a good number of fans in winning years and they might be attempting a culture shift with all these changes, but is that the way you want to bet with the rest of your career?

Even without all that, though, the question remains: how is this team going to win?  They should have Josh Johnson back, but he's going to remain an injury risk for a while.  Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Romero are solid starters, but that's not necessarily a rotation that is going to stack up with Philadelphia or maybe Atlanta.  There's obviously a new closer, Heath Bell, but his numbers aren't going in the right direction and you have to get a lead to him anyway.  The Marlins would be able to slug with the top of their lineup, but I'm not sure that is going to be enough to really compete in the NL East.

Plus, Albert, have you seen those uniforms?  Really, you want to be seen in an all-orange jersey top?  I mean, you've played in one of the classic uniforms of baseball for 11 years and you want to switch to that?

This is about the time that, if this was a movie, the dramatic music swells as Pujols sits down to sign the Marlins offer, then realizes that his heart is still in St. Louis no matter what the smarmy agent (likely played by Rob Lowe) is telling him.  He tears up the contract, fires the agent, and kisses his wife as they walk out of the room and over to John Mozeliak's suite.  While real life usually doesn't work out like that, I still think that, at the end of the day, the Cards are going to up their offer and they are going to sign Pujols.

If they do, both the team and, to my mind, the portion of the fan base that wants him back are committed.  The team is committed to signing him again at the end of this deal, if he still wants to play, so that he can finish his career in St. Louis.  The fan base is committed to not wanting to throw him overboard at the first (or last) signs of decline.  Yes, he's going to take up payroll resources.  Yes, he's going to be overpaid.  That's part of the equation.  That's part of what it takes to have today's Stan Musial, to have him be available for a huge ovation on opening day in 2041 or whatever.  There is a premium that must be paid for that.

I'm sure the news and rumors will be flying fast and furious today, so it should be a good day to stay tuned to Twitter if you are so inclined.

Also, there are rumors not involving Pujols.  For instance, there were reports that the Cards had a one-year deal in front of Octavio Dotel, but he was looking for a longer contract.  It looks like there are plenty of people willing to give him one.  Milwaukee probably just wants him so he isn't able to face Ryan Braun again.

The bigger rumor, though, is that the Cards were shopping Kyle Lohse to make room for Mark Buerhle.  This one is completely believable in my mind.  Believable that it is happening, that is, not that anything will come from it.  Buehrle has always wanted to play in St. Louis, I think the feeling is mutual, but there's not room for him.  In an ideal world, the Cards would move Jake Westbrook but there's got to be no market for him.  Lohse had a solid season last year and there could be a team wanting pitching that would take him on.  The Cards would have to buy out the no-trade clause and likely eat part of the contract, but not as much as they would have last season.  Again, don't expect it to happen, but as the Mythbusters say, it's at least plausible.

There's nothing like the winter meetings for some great baseball talk.  Let's do it again today!

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Broom Me!

Posted on August 8, 2011 at 6:49 AM
Wow, how nice is it to be able to talk about a Cardinal sweep?  You've got to go all the way back to the end of June to find a series where the opponent didn't win one at all.  The sad thing was, the Cards needed every bit of that sweep just to edge 1/2 game closer to the Brewers, who were taking care of their own business down in Houston.

We've already discussed Thursday's game, so let's take a quick look at the weekend action.

Friday (3-2 win)
Hero: Lance Berkman.  Two hits, a double and a triple.  A run and a RBI.  Just another night at the ballpark for the focus of the LB Fan Club.

Goat: Jon Jay.  0-4 hitting in front of Albert Pujols doesn't necessarily help out the offense much.

Notes: Matt Holliday is starting to get his stroke back, smashing a home run.  A solid outing out of Jake Westbrook, who gave up two in six.  That's about the extent of what you can expect out of Westbrook.  Occasionally he'll give you more than that, but you shouldn't expect it.  The bullpen did their job as well.  Jason Motte was the only really efficient one and Lance Lynn pulled a Jason Isringhausen in route to his first save, but they all held the line long enough for the offense to scratch across another run.

Saturday (2-1 win)
Hero: Chris Carpenter.  It was either honor Pujols for his first inning two-run home run (and he tacked on another hit as well) or Carpenter for making that stand up.  Carp threw a good number of pitches, but that was mainly because he struck out seven over his six and two-thirds.  He limited his hits allowed, which seems to be the difference between Good Carp and Bad Carp.  If the balls get caught, he's golden.

Goat: Tony Cruz.  The only starter to not get a hit, which is pretty surprising when you realize that they only scored two runs.  Lot of wasted opportunities in this one.

Notes: Daniel Descalso had a big day with three hits, including a double.  Holliday and Berkman also had a couple in what would be a big series for the Big Three.  Again, the bullpen did a stellar job, with Marc Rzepczynski coming in and getting his biggest out as a Cardinal.

Hero: Albert Pujols.  Pujols seems to be heating up as well, with home runs in three of the four games.  He's got his average up to .283, which is right about his season high.  It's still going to take an incredible run for him to get back to .300 though.  Still, it's nice to see the old Albert again.

Goat: Mitchell Boggs.  One of the issues with pitcher wins was highlighted here, as Boggs gave up a two-run home run that tied a game where the Cards had just taken a lead, but when they put up three runs in the next frame, he got the victory.

Notes: After getting 14 hits and just two runs the day before, the Cardinals were more efficient with their scoring here, getting eight on nine hits and six walks.  It was very good to see the Cards come out and seal the deal after so often taking the first games of a series and laying an egg in the last one.  Jaime Garcia didn't look great, only giving up two runs but leaving after five innings.  As Bill and I discussed last night, it seems like it doesn't take but one thing to go wrong and Garcia starts to snowball downward.  He's got to be able to mentally put that behind him, something that will hopefully come with experience.

The stat that might mean the most from the weekend was the combined production of the guys in the middle of the lineup.  Pujols, Holliday and Berkman put up a line that included a .438 average, five home runs and 13 RBI.  While not to that level, that's an idea of what we thought we'd get out of the big thumpers this year, especially after Berkman proved he still had a lot of life in his bat left.  They've just not all been on the field and clicking at the same time yet this season.  If that's starting, there's a lot more hope in Cardinal Nation.

It was really key to get the sweep because of Milwaukee's success in Houston.  Getting 4-5 games behind at this time of year is very, very hard to come back from.  We'd have to hope that the Cardinals starting winning consistently (something they've not done all year) and hope that Milwaukee stumbled along the way.  The Cards do have a number of games left with the Brewers, it's true, but you don't want to pull all of your eggs in that basket.  I think St. Louis really needs to take two of three in this series starting tomorrow to be competitive without being under a lot of undue pressure.  We'll talk about that tomorrow, though!

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Taking Shots

Posted on August 5, 2011 at 11:58 AM
If nothing else, no one could say that the Florida trip has been boring.

There was plenty of excitement on the field last night, especially when Albert Pujols was batting.  Three hits, including a home run (which means that right now HR just edge out double plays--maybe AP can push that lead out some!) usually makes for a good night for the Redbirds and it proved to be that way again last night.  Matt Holliday had the higher scoring blast, a three-run shot in the first, but that was frittered away immediately by Kyle Lohse.

Lohse gets the Goat for being unable to go more than three innings, throwing 75 pitches in that span.  Lohse was actually lucky to give up just three runs, as Rafael Furcal made a nice diving play and there was some good outfield work as well.  I only was able to listen to the first part of the game on the radio, but it sounded like Lohse a) was nibbling and b) was being hit hard.  Not a good combination.

Did you know that the starting pitchers had an ERA of 9.38 this last time through the rotation?  And that's earned runs--Jaime Garcia gave up four unearned and Edwin Jackson allowed two of that nature.  Granted, that's a little skewed by Jackson taking one for the team, but not that much.  You have to go back to Jackson's debut game against the Cubs to find a good starting pitching performance.  This is starting to get very concerning.  If I had the time I'd see what the starting pitching splits were like pre and post-All Star Game, but since I can't seem to find that right at hand it will have to wait for another day.  Hopefully the pitching staff will turn it around and it'll be a moot point.

Other good points from last night's game: Skip Schumaker had three hits and Lance Berkman two.  Also, there were a lot of good outings from the bullpen, but that's another issue I'd like to take up.

The Cardinals left Edwin Jackson out there for a long, long while on Wednesday because they needed to rest up the bullpen.  That's fine, I understand that.  There comes a time when you have to do that.  Apparently, it worked, because I believe it was the radio guys said that everyone was available last night.  Great!

Now, the next step.  Someone tell Tony La Russa that, just because everyone is available, doesn't mean they all have to get into the game.  I understand pulling Lohse, and putting Kyle McClellan into that spot makes very good sense.  You run him three innings, which has to be done, and we're good.  McClellan leaves with a four run lead.

So someone tell me why it took five pitchers to get three innings in?  Lance Lynn had a dominant inning.  Why not leave him out there for another?  Lynn obviously could handle it.  That's assuming you are going to use him at all.  Bob made the great point on Twitter last night (and again, if you aren't on Twitter during games, you are missing out) that Lynn should have been saved for either when this game got closer or the next night.  Using a valuable piece like that in a game that shouldn't be a problem finishing is questionable.

What I'm also taking issue with is the use of Marc Rzepczynski.  We were told this is a guy who could be converted to a starter, who was more than a LOOGY, who can get righties out as well.  His last two outings?  He's walked a lefty and been replaced, then last night gave up a hit to a lefty and was replaced.  It makes no sense to have pulled Jason Motte in that situation.  Motte had come in and gotten a pop out and a strikeout.  You are still up by four runs, even though the bases are loaded.  It's true that lefties have hit him harder this year, but if you are looking that far down the line, why not just bring in Rzepczynski to replace Octavio Dotel in the first place?

Just seemed like a lot of unnecessary moving parts for a game that was pretty well in hand.  Especially when you factor in that TLR's already saying that Jake Westbrook "may be out there awhile" tonight.  Seriously?  We've revamped this bullpen and it's already worn out after one game?  That should tell you something right there.  Lohse created issues, sure, but I feel like Tony exacerbated them.

Of course, the most serious thing to come out of last night's game was the fact that David Freese was plunked in the head.  It looks like it is just a mild concussion and he may be back before the end of the series, most definitely by Milwaukee if he has his way (and the doctors agree, of course).  Apparently the 7-day concussion DL won't be used here, so the Cards will be playing shorthanded again, but I'm not sure how often they do have a full roster. Seems like they are always playing shorthanded for one reason or another.

The off-the-field news was just about as interesting yesterday, though.  Seems like Yadier Molina and Gerald Laird got into an "animated argument" at their hotel Wednesday night.  According to the press reports, it was just a verbal discussion and Pujols broke it up.  Of course, Molina--who as we know was suspended five games and didn't appeal--was probably not going to play tonight due to a bruised hand according to John Rooney.  I don't quite remember him bruising the hand in Wednesday's game, though I might be misremembering.

Cards gained a half-game last night since the Brewers didn't play.  Of course, Milwaukee is in Houston this weekend, so St. Louis can't count on any losses from the Brew Crew and they need to win all the can against the Fish.  Westbrook takes the bump tonight, as noted, and here's his career against these Marlin hitters:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Omar Infante 20 18 6 1 0 0 3 2 4 .333 .400 .389 .789 0 0 1
John Buck 16 14 3 1 0 0 0 2 4 .214 .313 .286 .598 0 0 0
Mike Cameron 9 8 4 2 0 0 2 1 1 .500 .556 .750 1.306 0 0 0
Emilio Bonifacio 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0
Hanley Ramirez 6 6 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 .333 .333 .833 1.167 0 0 0
Mike Stanton 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Dewayne Wise 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Greg Dobbs 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0
Wes Helms 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Logan Morrison 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0
Gaby Sanchez 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 79 74 19 4 0 1 7 5 18 .257 .304 .351 .655 0 0 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/5/2011.

Not the best of numbers, but if he can keep Omar Infante in check, he's got a better chance of succeeding. 

Anibal Sanchez goes for the opposition. His numbers:
 
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Lance Berkman 12 9 3 0 0 0 0 3 1 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0
Rafael Furcal 9 8 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 .125 .222 .125 .347 0 0 0
Yadier Molina 9 9 3 0 0 1 2 0 1 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0
Albert Pujols 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .125 .222 .125 .347 0 0 0
Ryan Theriot 9 8 2 0 1 1 2 1 2 .250 .333 .875 1.208 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 8 8 5 0 0 1 2 0 2 .625 .625 1.000 1.625 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .286 .000 .286 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500 1.167 0 0 0
David Freese 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Corey Patterson 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Kyle McClellan 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Jaime Garcia 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 75 66 16 0 1 3 7 9 11 .242 .333 .409 .742 0 0 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/5/2011.

Not a big sample size, but Berkman and Holliday have been pretty good. Still, Sanchez is very nasty when he's on and this is going to be a tough one for the Redbirds to pull out. That's why they play the games, though!

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Mediocrity

Posted on August 4, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Momentum [moh-men-tuhm] (n): force of speed or movement; impetus, as of a physical object or course of events.

Sorry, I just thought since the Cardinals apparently don't seem to know the meaning of the word, I'd help them out.

As seems to have been the case in the last couple of years especially, that inspiring moment that you are sure is a spark to greatness actually turns out to be just a firecracker--lots of fire, but very short-lived.  We thought that last year's sweep of the Reds would be one of those things that jump-started the team; instead, it collapsed.  Tuesday night's game could have been a game that was remembered for decades as a game that defined a successful season; instead, it's another nice historical game, but nothing that had extra meaning.

The saying in baseball is momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher.  The Cards had reason to believe that was going to be on their side, since their starting pitcher had been very good his first time out.  Instead, Edwin Jackson turned in a Goat of a performance.  I'm not saying that it should have been 10-runs bad, and Jackson not only should get some credit for taking one for the team but also for the two hits that he got, but the game was lost on his watch.  The Cards took a lead early, but he couldn't hold it.  From listening and following on Twitter, it just seemed he didn't have much of anything going with his pitches.  Casey McGehee liked them, though.

Jackson wasn't the only one with a bad day, of course.  The offense did a tolerable job, putting up five runs and pounding out 11 hits, but Albert Pujols wasn't involved.  Another 0-5 day for AP including, yet again, another double play.  He now has as many double plays (24) as he has home runs.  His career high in the category is 27 in 2007, but this year is already ranking as #2.  Plus, after pushing his average up to around .283, it's down to .275.  He's going to have to get white-hot to get the average up to .300 and I've not seen that, this year, he's able to get on that kind of roll.  He was starting to look like that before the fractured wrist and he'll have a series or so where he'll be going well, but he's not been able to sustain a couple of weeks of production like he has in the past.

Yadier Molina had a rough day as well, with a passed ball and an error, though he did get a hit.  The fans let him know about what they thought of his outburst on Tuesday and he admits that he regrets stepping over the line like that.  I would expect that he'd find out his fate today.  If it's not too severe, he might just accept it, but odds are he's going to appeal, especially if the commissioner finds that Rob Drake is convincing in his role as Spit Upon Umpire.  Me, I'd be more likely to nominate him for a Razzie than an Oscar.  It was way too obvious a put-on act.

There were a few highlights in the game, mostly coming from Rafael Furcal.  While the Cards didn't go after him for his power, the fact that he can occasionally go yard doesn't hurt and his three-run blast was most of the offense from yesterday.  Not only that, but he drove in Corey Patterson and Jackson, making it an all-trade blow.

After the last three series, two of which the Cards should have dominated but didn't and one where they needed a win but didn't get one, you have to wonder, just how good is this team?

Since start of the 2007 season, the Cardinals are 399-360.  (You could put the 2006 season into this and drop some of the numbers, but we'll just focus on the post-World Series teams.)  That's a .526 winning clip, which means 85-77.  In other words, they are an average of four games over .500.  

Now, I'll admit, it's possible Cardinal Nation got spoiled by the early part of the last decade, especially the 100-win teams of 2004 and 2005.  From 2000-2006, the Cards were 658-475, which was a .581 percentage (94-68).  Remember when 2003 was such a disappointment?  The Cards didn't make the playoffs and wound up their in their division.  Their record that year? 85-77.

The Cards are winning roughly 10 games less than they used to just a few years ago.  Now, don't get me wrong, it's not the dark times.  They are still being more competitive and are better equipped than the teams from the mid-90s were, when the Brewery stopped caring but before the sold the team.  Things could easily be worse than being in a pennant race most every year.

To go along with that, it's not like they are just staying in contention because of the weak division.  All around baseball, teams are floating in the same zone that they are.  Save for the NL East, where they'd be 13 or so games behind Philadelphia, and the AL East, where they'd trail Boston by 10 games, they'd be as close or closer in every other division as they are in the NL Central.

It's just, you look at this team, and you see all the talent and you see what they should be able to be and it is frustrating when they don't hit those marks.  You keep waiting and waiting for them to turn the corner and start off on one of those second-half runs that happened in years like 2001 and 2002 but they gasp and sputter like when I walk outside these days.  (Seriously, 110 air temps?  What is going on here?)

There's still a lot of baseball to be played, that's for sure, and they are still integrating the new pieces.  They have nine games left with Milwaukee, so they can make up ground quickly.  The season's not over at all.  All that said, it'd be nice if they stopped treading and started swimming sometime soon.

We could probably pun something about the Redbirds swimming with the fishes, but we'll leave it alone.  The Cardinals do take on their spring training stadium mates tonight down in Florida.  Cards split (of course they did) a four-game series against them at Busch back in May.  Kyle Lohse goes tonight and here are his numbers against the Marlins:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Mike Cameron 34 31 9 1 0 1 2 3 9 .290 .353 .419 .772 0 0 0
Omar Infante 25 25 4 1 0 1 2 0 5 .160 .160 .320 .480 0 0 0
John Buck 20 17 1 0 0 0 0 3 7 .059 .200 .059 .259 0 0 1
Hanley Ramirez 15 13 5 3 0 1 4 2 4 .385 .467 .846 1.313 0 0 0
Wes Helms 12 11 4 0 0 2 5 0 2 .364 .333 .909 1.242 0 0 1
Greg Dobbs 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .143 .143 .143 .286 0 0 0
Emilio Bonifacio 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0
Gaby Sanchez 3 3 1 0 0 1 4 0 0 .333 .333 1.333 1.667 0 0 0
Mike Stanton 3 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 .667 .667 1.667 2.333 0 0 0
Clay Hensley 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0
Ricky Nolasco 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Javier Vazquez 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Bryan Petersen 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 129 118 29 6 0 7 18 8 29 .246 .291 .475 .766 0 0 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/4/2011.

Pretty good for the most part. Mike Cameron might have good career numbers against him, but it's been a tough year for Cameron, who I really thought had retired.  I can't say I'm all that concerned about him.  We'll see if Hanley Ramirez plays with his sprained shoulder.

Clay Hensley goes for the home team.  Here's what he's done against the Cardinal hitters:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Matt Holliday 26 25 8 1 0 0 3 0 2 .320 .308 .360 .668 0 0 3
Rafael Furcal 13 9 2 0 0 0 0 4 2 .222 .462 .222 .684 1 0 0
Albert Pujols 12 10 5 1 1 0 3 1 0 .500 .583 .800 1.383 1 1 1
Yadier Molina 6 6 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0
Lance Berkman 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .250 .000 .250 0 0 0
Ryan Theriot 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Chris Carpenter 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.000 0 0 0
Kyle Lohse 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 71 61 17 2 1 1 11 7 6 .279 .357 .393 .751 2 1 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/4/2011.

Good numbers in a small sample. Matt Holliday's done well and maybe Pujols can use this to get on a roll.  If nothing else, perhaps he can have one good night.  Right now, we'll take them one night at a time.

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Catching Up On The Cardinals

Posted on May 11, 2011 at 1:00 AM
Last night, at my son's t-ball game, one of the opposing coaches mentioned that he reads the blog regularly (hey, Matt!).  Being that there are at least three regulars out there, I figured I best try to get something up.  Work has been keeping me from writing recently, but I'm going to try to piece this together throughout the day to have a little something new up here.

Lots of stuff going on, what with Tony La Russa's absence and Ryan Theriot's mouth, but let's do the Hero/Goat recap of the last week or so and discuss those game before getting into anything else.

Hero: Matt Holliday.  Two hits, a run and an RBI on a night that, even with seven runs, the offense was pretty scattered throughout the lineup.  He did hit into the game-ending double play, though.

Goat: Eduardo Sanchez.  The young gun was going to hit some bumps and he did in this one, with Mike Stanton--who is going to be a good hitter for a long time in this league--taking him yard for the game-winning scores.

Notes: Terrible defensive night, with two errors by Chris Carpenter and Yadier Molina both.  I didn't get to watch much of this game, between family obligations and preparing for the UCB Radio Hour, but it sounds like Carpenter got a little too focused on Emilio Bonifacio.  We love Carpenter's competitive spirit and appreciate how he stands up for his teammates, but it looks like this was one of those times where he let it get away from him.

The defense this year has been rough, as we've noted before, so much so that when I saw Molina throw the ball away, it never occurred to me that there could have been some reason for it.  In years past, I think I'd have immediately wondered what happened, but Molina's defensive numbers are really down, as we discussed in the show last week.

Oh, and Miguel Batista with three strikeouts in a scoreless inning and a third?  He really wanted to impress Christine while she was on the show, I guess!

More after the jump....
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Unable To Get Started

Posted on May 3, 2011 at 10:37 AM
As interesting and enjoyable as the 2011 season has been so far, there is one thing that has eluded the Cardinals so far, and that's a long winning streak.  Two up, one down, never getting a sweep.  It was like that as well last year, and I guess as long as you win two of three, it doesn't matter too much, but it'd be nice to see this team get on a roll.

As long as they don't start rolling the wrong way, of course.  Last night gave them a two-game losing streak and the first time we've actually been disappointed in what Kyle Lohse brought to the table.  If you look at it broadly, Lohse really wasn't that bad, with most of the damage concentrated in one inning.  Lohse allowed a one-out single to the pitcher, then lost the command that he's shown all season long with back to back walks.  He decided to challenge the next hitter and, well, slams happen.

Not to say that Lohse escapes being the Goat--better control or keeping Mike Stanton in the park later on would have done wonders for the chances of a Cardinal win.  I'm just saying that perhaps we don't have to panic that the smoke and mirrors has worn off and we're going back to old-school Lohse just yet.

When I listened to the slam last night on the radio, it seemed to me that the Cards hadn't given up very many home runs this year.  Turns out that's really fairly true--they are 19th in baseball and 10th in the NL in home runs given up, which is a testament to how well the team is pitching and the ground-ball nature of the squad.  Without digging into it, I bet a large portion of those HR were allowed by the relief staff as well, which made a home run against a starter fairly rare (and then it happened twice).

Lohse also took a line drive off the leg, which apparently turned out to be nothing.  That said, it made you wonder if he wasn't some sort of baseball bad luck magnet.  In 2009, it seemed like he couldn't get through a start without some calamity affecting him, whether it was line drives or being hit by a pitch or issues on the basepaths.  Let's not go down that road again, Kyle, what do you say?

Rough night for Colby Rasmus as well.  He did get a hit and score a run, but his diving attempt at Stanton's ball turned into a triple when he couldn't come up with hit, which happened to be the winning run when Stanton scored on a sacrifice fly.  Then Rasmus had a chance at redemption with two on and two out in the ninth, but made the last out on the first pitch he saw.

The Hero again had to be Lance Berkman, who drove in four of the Cardinal runs and hit another home run along with it.  Berkman was named Player of the Week for the second time in April (so it seems pretty safe to think he'd get Player of the Month) and he wasn't going to rest on his laurels.  Unfortunately, no one else did a lot last night, so it went for naught.

BJ Rains brought up a good point on Twitter last night.  Since Mitchell Boggs blew his save opportunity, it seems like he's been warming up and getting into games earlier.  He pitched the eighth on Friday when the Cards were down one, the seventh on Saturday when the Cards were down two, and then last night he pitches the eighth with the game tied.  Now, many people would argue for using him in high-leverage situations and not saving your closer for the ninth, necessarily, but two points on that.  One, that's never been Tony La Russa's style.  Ryan Franklin pitched the ninth (or came into the eighth and finished the game) when he was a closer and all closers before that did as well.

Secondly, these weren't necessarily high-leverage spots.  Boggs started all of those innings, so it's not like he came in to put out the fire.  He kept the game close in Atlanta, but you'd have expected he'd been saved for the ninth last night if he was the closer.  It seems to me that we can't call him that anymore, that there really isn't a closer on this team.  Something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

Roster move was made yesterday, as Allen Craig was activated and David Freese goes on the DL.  Freese and La Russa seem to be more optimistic, with around an 8 week timetable being expressed by those parties.  John Mozeliak wasn't as confident, saying more like 9-12 weeks and a late July return.  Apparently it was a pretty bad break, as Freese underwent surgery to fix it up, and knowing how Mozeliak treated the Adam Wainwright situation this spring, I'm betting that his window is more likely than the eight week one.  As Pip writes over at Fungoes today, though, the gap between Freese and his likely replacements isn't as large as other gaps on the team.  We'll see if that holds true as the months go along.

Speaking of injuries, Skip Schumaker is 2-4 weeks from returning and Brian Tallet is still a ways off as well.  As Bill postulated on Gateway to Baseball Heaven Sunday and has written about at I70 Baseball today, the team really isn't missing Schumaker and that says something interesting about what should happen when he returns.  Now, to be fair, the team hasn't missed Wainwright as much as they thought they would, but if he was healthy tomorrow he'd be back in the rotation without a beat.

Schumaker, though, has always seemed to be an expendable part, at least to all but perhaps the manager.  Having players like Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene put up respectable numbers and keep the team afloat while he's gone has to be a little concerning to Schumaker.  He'll likely get his job back when he returns, but I don't think anyone's in a big rush for that to happen.

As for Tallet, having another lefty in the pen would be nice, and it seems to me Mozeliak hints at trying to acquire one in the article.  I don't know if that's really going to be an option, but if Trever Miller continues to struggle, it may move to the front burner.

Cards try to shake off the last couple of games and Kyle McClellan looks to get back on the winning track tonight.  Here's what he's done vs. Florida:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Omar Infante 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .400 .000 .400 0 0 0
Hanley Ramirez 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .333 .200 .533 0 1 0
Emilio Bonifacio 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 0
John Buck 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Chris Coghlan 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Greg Dobbs 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.000 0 0 0
Wes Helms 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0
Total 19 13 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 .154 .389 .154 .543 0 1 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2011.

Not much going on there.  Team seems to have drawn a good number of walks against him for the limited plate appearances.  If he has good command tonight, he might be able to do OK, as these guys haven't hit him very hard in the past.

Anibal Sanchez could be a tough draw for St. Louis, being that he has had no-hit stuff some this season.  Here's what the Cards have done in the past against him:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Lance Berkman 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 .375 .444 .375 .819 0 0 0
Yadier Molina 6 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 .333 .333 .833 1.167 0 0 0
Albert Pujols 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .200 .333 .200 .533 0 0 0
Ryan Theriot 6 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 2 .333 .333 1.167 1.500 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 .600 .600 .600 1.200 0 0 0
Colby Rasmus 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Jaime Garcia 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 36 34 11 0 1 2 4 2 11 .324 .361 .559 .920 0 0 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2011.

They've done well in limited action against him.  Of course, it may have been that they caught him during some of his arm troubles in the past as well.  This could be a really tough matchup tonight and it should be fun to watch.

For those of you that did the Houston YNOT prediction game, the results have been posted over at CardsClubhouse.  I'll try to be sure to add the form for the games in the future over here, starting this weekend with the Brewers.

Also, early reminder for the UCB Radio Hour, because not only do we have a great guest lined up, but Christine from Aaron Miles' Fastball will be making her co-hosting debut as well.  Mark your calendars!

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Big Weekend For Cardinals

Posted on May 2, 2011 at 10:30 AM
While the national news of Sunday night overshadowed the diversion that is this game we love, it was still a strong weekend for St. Louis.  A weekend that, with a better outing on Sunday, would have resulted in their first broom usage for the season.  Let's quickly review, starting with Thursday's game against the Astros.

Thursday (11-7 win)
Hero: Lance Berkman.  Another two home run night for the Puma, exciting the Twitter fan club.  Berkman had a lot of fun back home in Houston in this series.  A four hit night to go along with those big bombs.

Goat: Rough night for Daniel Descalso, who went 0-5 in the leadoff slot and made two errors to go along with it.  Thankfully, the errors didn't wind up losing the game, unlike what happened later in the weekend.

Notes: Nine run inning?  I can't imagine that would have happened last year.  With no huge gaping holes in the lineup, it's a little easier to sustain rallies, though obviously not to that extreme.  Three hits for David Freese and then what you'd expect from the bullpen--Trever Miller walks his guy, Miguel Batista allows runs, and Fernando Salas shuts the door.  A tough outing for Kyle McClellan as well, but as it's his first hiccup, there's not necessarily cause for concern yet.

Friday (5-3 win in 11)
Hero: Nick Punto.  Punto roped a two-run triple in the eleventh that gave the Cards the win, jumping on a mistake pitch and driving it down the line.  It was his only hit in the game, but it was a big one.

Goat: Colby Rasmus.  Punto may have only had one hit, but that was more than Rasmus was able to produce, going 0-4 (though he did manage two walks).  After a hot start, Rasmus has cooled off somewhat, slipping under the .300 mark.

Notes: Eduardo Sanchez got his first win with two almost-perfect innings and three strikeouts, bouncing back from his rough outing against Houston. It was an interesting and very questionable decision to remove Jason Motte, who got the first two outs via strikeouts in the eleventh, for Trever Miller, even with a lefty coming up.  Miller finally did get someone out, though, and notched the save.  Chris Carpenter winds up missing out on yet another win and has gotten through April with a 0 in that column, even though he's pitched well enough to have 2-3 wins.

Saturday (3-2 win)
Hero: David Freese. 2 hits, including the game-tying two-run single.  Sadly, that'll be the last time he can be the Hero for a while, but more on that later.

Goat: Albert Pujols. 0 for 4 with a strikeout left him hitting .245.  I know that Albert will wind up being Albert, but whenever he'd like to start going on a hot streak to get his numbers back up, I'm good with that.

Notes: Good to see that Jake Westbrook seems to be getting back into that groove that we expected out of him when he was re-signed. Lot of talk recently about how he has bad Aprils and then things start clicking for him, and now with back-to-back positive outings, we can hold to that and expect it to be true.  Miguel Batista got a lot of help to get out of his jam without allowing any runs, but that's about what you'd expect out of The Poet.  (On a side note, Christine now has a page for Poet Poems and, if you head over there, you'll see my latest attempt at a song parody.  Just fair warning.)

Sunday (6-5 loss)
Hero: Matt Holliday.  Holliday has proven that you don't need an appendix to play major league baseball.  His two for four day got his average up to .408 for the season and he drove in a couple of runs.

Goat: Ryan Theriot.  If there ever was a blatant Goat, Theriot would be it for yesterday's outing.  Not only did he hit into a bases-loaded double play with nobody out in the sixth and the Cards only up by one, but then he had the mind-blowing error on an easy popup in the ninth, which led to the Cardinal loss.  The debate about which should rank higher, offense or defense, is a tough one to answer, but it'd have been nice to have a Brendan Ryan as a defensive replacement right about then.

Notes: Even though he took the loss, not only is Ryan Franklin not to blame for it, but Sunday's outing indicates that perhaps he's getting a bit better with his pitching.  He pitched a perfect eighth inning and, if Theriot gets that popup in the ninth, odds are he gets through that inning as well, as he never did let a ball be hit hard against him.  

Jaime Garcia had another game where he was dominant to a point, then struggled afterwards.  Don't know if he just hits a wall, if running the bases at the top of the inning wore him out, or what, but it'd be nice to see him take that deeper into games.  Obviously he can, since he already has a complete game this year, but since that first start it seems he often doesn't get through seven.  

Given the choice, it's usually where you'd want to see the young guns in the bullpen over the old veterans. That said, Sunday was not a good outing for Jason Motte, probably the weakest link of the youngsters.  Not the worst outing by any means, especially when you factor in the Pujols error behind him, but he still gave up the lead with a couple of hits around that error.

Speaking of Pujols, he played a little third base for the first time in a long time.  He played second a couple of years back in an extra-inning game against the Brewers, but I believe it was 2002 when he was last manning the hot corner.  I don't expect that to be a regular thing, even with Freese out, but it'll be interesting if Tony La Russa uses that option occasionally.

As noted above, Freese is out for a month after taking a pitch off of his hand during an at-bat.  Tough to lose Freese, who hadn't shown a ton of power yet but was producing at the plate and really helping the offense go.  Apparently, when everyone was bubble-wrapping the ankles, they ran out before they could get the rest of him.  

From what I heard yesterday, there's a good chance that Allen Craig comes off the DL and takes his slot today, which doesn't necessarily help out the infield situation. Craig played third in the spring, of course, and he'll probably get the bulk of time there with Freese out, but if that doesn't work there would seem to be a good chance that Matt Carpenter would get a look, if they can figure out how to get him on the 40-man.

So with a month down, the Cards are in first place.  I think this quote from Bernie Miklasz's recap of the month is very appropriate.

"That's right, the Cardinals are in first place on May 2 with no Wainwright, no wins from Chris Carpenter, five one-run leads lost in the ninth-inning fire, seven errors by shortstop Ryan Theriot and a .245 batting average by The Great Pujols."

Who would have thought it?  It doesn't seem possible that a team that we thought was so finely balanced on the razor's edge between good and bad, a team that had no margin for error, could give away games and have issues like this and still be in first.  Baseball is a strange game at times.  It's also a long game, where good teams win out, and we'll have to see if the Cardinals can continue this stretch over the long haul.

The team returns to St. Louis (which, if it's anything like here in Central Arkansas, is a soaked and sodden mess) to take on the Florida Marlins.  Today, Kyle Lohse takes the hill vs. the Marlins.  Here's his career line against them:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Omar Infante 22 22 4 1 0 1 2 0 4 .182 .182 .364 .545 0 0 0
John Buck 17 15 1 0 0 0 0 2 7 .067 .176 .067 .243 0 0 1
Wes Helms 12 11 4 0 0 2 5 0 2 .364 .333 .909 1.242 0 0 1
Hanley Ramirez 12 11 5 3 0 1 4 1 4 .455 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 0
Greg Dobbs 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Clay Hensley 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0
Ricky Nolasco 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Javier Vazquez 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Chris Volstad 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 75 68 16 4 0 4 11 3 20 .235 .264 .471 .734 0 0 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/2/2011.

Lohse has had some success against these guys, save Hanley Ramirez, which may bode especially well with his new-founded pitching prowess.  It'll be interesting to see if he can still handle these guys like he's handled the rest of the league so far.

Chris Volstad goes up against the Cards:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Ryan Theriot 12 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .182 .250 .182 .432 0 1 0
Albert Pujols 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 .143 .400 .143 .543 0 0 0
Yadier Molina 9 9 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .444 .778 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 .625 .625 .875 1.500 0 0 0
Colby Rasmus 7 6 2 0 0 1 3 1 1 .333 .429 .833 1.262 0 0 0
Lance Berkman 6 6 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .333 .500 0 0 0
Jon Jay 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Tyler Greene 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0
Miguel Batista 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Chris Carpenter 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Kyle Lohse 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Mark Hamilton 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 67 60 15 5 0 1 5 4 4 .250 .308 .383 .691 0 1 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/2/2011.

Cards haven't seen him all that much, though enough that he won't be a total enigma.  So far, that kind of pitcher hasn't bothered the Birds as much as in the past anyway.  Should be another fun game to watch.

A couple of housekeeping items.  First, as I noted the last time I posted, this marks the 1,000th post on C70 At The Bat that I've put up. (1,016 if you count the guest posters that have filled in on my vacations in the past, but that's not important right now.)  I want to thank everyone who has read, commented, disagreed, and in any way supported my efforts here in the last three and a half years.  I especially want to thank all of those in the United Cardinal Bloggers, without whom this wouldn't be nearly as much fun and, honestly, might not still be around.

In relation to that, I want to give away a couple of tickets to the Social Media Night coming up for the Cardinals on May 17th.  I would love to go, because I think it'll be a fun night, but it just doesn't fit into my schedule.  I've seen others that are giving them away with various contests and I think all of those are great things to be involved in.  I was going to have you point out your favorite post of mine from the first 1,000, but I decided to skip that portion.  (Though, honestly, if you've got a favorite, I would love to hear from you on what it was!)

Basically, though, the first two people who Tweet me (@C70) for the tickets can have them.  If you want to write a recap and have it posted here, that'd be great, but I really just want people to go and have a great time.

Thanks for everything!  Here's to 1,000 more!

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The Last Of The Non-Essential

Posted on March 30, 2011 at 10:30 AM
We can draw the curtain on the spring, as the Cardinals have left the nest, as it were, and headed home for tomorrow's Opening Day game against the Padres.  Starting tomorrow, "it's only spring" gets replaced with "it's still early".  Can't remember how long that lasts--I'll have to check my calendar.

Anyway, while the Cardinals lost their last game and finished under .500 for the spring, there were a lot of positives out of it.  The biggest, of course, was the fact that Jaime Garcia had such a strong last start.  Were the Marlins perhaps ready to wrap up their spring as well?  Could be, though that didn't stop them from rallying late (more on that in a bit).  No matter what the reason, it was very good to see Garcia getting out there and going six innings while allowing only one run.  Things seemed to be clicking for him, so that seems like a good way for the team's X-factor to go into the season.

So things looked good for Garcia and even Jason Motte, who had been struggling this spring, had a successful outing.  Everything was going well for the Redbirds, who even benefited from a Colby Rasmus home run, until Mitchell Boggs got into the game.  Boggs had a terrible end to a checkered spring, giving up the lead on a bases-loaded walk.  

I'm not exactly certain of what Boggs's spring has been like, save for the back problems he had early on, and I'm not at a place where I can look them up.  (Good thing this is a blog and is held to absolutely no standards, right?)  However, Dave Duncan said that Boggs was the only pitcher that wasn't where he wanted them to be going into the season.  Sounds like Boggs might be used sporadically or when games aren't in doubt for a while to help him get back into his best baseball shape.  I'm sure the downtime with the back has hampered him somewhat.

Allen Craig led the team with a .359 average in the spring.  You think this guy's ready to show what he can do in the bigs?  If Lance Berkman doesn't get a handle on his old self, Craig may find himself with a lot more playing time than he expected.

Which leads us to the last part of this post.  The Post-Dispatch had some questions about the upcoming team and, in a play on Tony La Russa's slogan, they called them a hard 9.  Let's take a look at them. Most of them are very subjective and we won't find out until we watch the season, but that won't stop me from offering opinions.

1. What does Lance Berkman have left?

The offseason regimen and the weight loss made me optimistic that Berkman could return to something approaching his Houston form.  So far, though, he's not shown that in the spring.  It may be that he will be a slow starter and finally kick it in and there's obviously not been enough to judge him yet.  That said, even a middling spring might have been more encouraging.

2. Is this David Freese's year?

Talking about Freese is like stepping on a crack--you don't want to risk injury to someone you care about, whether it's your mother's back or David's ankles.  So far, though, Freese is looking durable and, more than that, like the expectations fans have had of him while he was recovering were justified.  With the experience of last year, I think we'll see a very nice year out of Freese.  He won't hit for the average he was hitting at, but he should have more power. A .275 season with 25 home runs wouldn't be out of the question, I don't think.

3. Will Kyle Lohse contribute?

For the first time since 2009, Lohse is being talked about without epithets or qualifications.  Heck, even his fan club is back open for business.  Lohse has been amazing this spring and it really looks like the surgery has done great things for him.  I don't think he'll be as strong as his Jupiter outings show, but he can be a slightly better than league average pitcher, and when you have that as your fourth starter, you are doing pretty well.

4. Can Skip Schumaker rebound?

I don't know about rebounding.  Even at his heights, Skip's not the strongest second baseman.  Obviously he has more value when he's hitting .300, but since it's not a powerful .300, he's got no room for slipping up.  I think he hit better down the stretch last year, but I don't think we'll see another .300 season out of him.  Couple that with his lack of range and issues on the defensive side and, if he stumbles, Daniel Descalso may get a lot more playing time.

5. Is team chemistry better?

That's something that can only be answered by being around the players, though the best way to have good chemistry is to win more than vice versa.  Berkman seems to bring a responsible levity, as it were, to the group and if Brendan Ryan really was that much of an issue (sorry, Diamond Dolls), then it's probably best he's gone.  So I'd say it's likely that it has, but a .500 season and nobody's going to be happy.

6. Can Ryan Theriot slow the shortstop carousel?

This is about the time you wish Pete Kozma had lived up to being a first round draft pick.  A young, upcoming shortstop would be really good right about now.  Theriot will do fine at the bat and likely get back to his Chicago numbers, but again, with a groundball pitching staff, having the middle of the diamond manned by him and Schumaker puts a lot of runners on or double plays not turned.

7. Could a long shot end up sticking with the team?

I think we've already seen that in Bryan Augenstein.  He's at least stuck enough to go north with the team, which of course is no guarantee that he'll still be a St. Louis Cardinal at the end of April.  Augenstein has been impressive, though, and obviously the organization saw something in him when they got him off the waiver wire, so I think he'll be around for most of the season.

8. Who's the number six starter?

I think it has to be between the two guys that lost out to Kyle McClellan this spring, Lance Lynn and Brandon Dickson.  Each outing in Memphis for both of those guys is going to be like an audition.  Whomever is doing better whenever a starter is needed will likely get the call.

9. What's the bullpen alignment?

Obviously Ryan Franklin has the ninth.  Jason Motte still probably has the eighth, at least for a while, but may be on a short leash.  Once they are comfortable with Boggs, he'll have the seventh.  Trever Miller will be the go-to lefty, with Brian Tallet perhaps coming out of the pen first to face a lefty depending on the situation.  Augenstein and Miguel Batista will absorb innings when a starter goes out early.

Agree? Disagree?  That's what the comments and Twitter are for!

Playing Pepper 2011: Florida Marlins

Posted on March 7, 2011 at 2:30 PM
Two years ago, I started a series I called Playing Pepper, where I asked questions of bloggers of each major league team about the season to come.  Not only was that informative and entertaining, it led to the spawning of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.  With spring training coming up, it's time to get back into shape by again playing a little pepper.

Florida Marlins (80-82, 17 GB and third in the NL East)

After all the controversies, the stops and starts, the Marlins are getting a new ballpark in 2012.  Which means not only is this the last year in Sun Life Stadium but also the last as the Florida Marlins, as they turn into the Miami Marlins when they move into the new digs.

Can Florida go out with a bang?  The Phillies are the clear favorite, but everything else seems to be up for grabs.  I talked with David Hill, author of Marlins Diehards, about the upcoming campaign.  You can find David on Twitter as well, if you want to keep up throughout the year.

After the jump, prospects both coming and, in the case of Mike Stanton, already established.
  Continue Reading

The Name of the Game Is Pitching

Posted on March 7, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Three different games, three interesting pitching lines.  Granted, one of them was interesting in the car-wreck sort of way, but it may have a lot of bearing on the 2011 Cardinals.

First up was Kyle Lohse on Friday.  Lohse has the potential to make or break this rotation, at least to some degree.  If he's strong, he's an overqualified fourth starter.  If he's off, a rotation missing Adam Wainwright gets a whole lot weaker.  Strength prevailed on Friday, as he only gave up one run in three innings of play.  More importantly, his command was strong. Thirty strikes to only 11 balls in his outing and he struck out Brett Wallace with a changeup to end his outing.  He seems to be getting his full array of pitches back and if he can regularly control them, he should be closer to the 2008 version of Lohse than the subsequent ones, though to be fair he started 2009 off strong as well until the injuries started coming into play. 

Some aren't going to believe it until they see it, though, and it's tough to argue with that mindset.  The team's been burned on Lohse a couple of times and they've overpaid him during that stretch.  A team that has to watch their expenses like the Cardinals really needs to get their money's worth out of Lohse this year.

Then it was Kyle McClellan's turn on Saturday.  I lauded Lance Lynn for coming out when the pressure was on and throwing a wonderful outing.  McClellan didn't rest on his projected laurels, though.  He also went three innings, allowing no runs and just a couple of hits.  McClellan seems to really want to start and is making sure no one takes that slot away from him.  If Lynn, McClellan and Brandon Dickson continue to pitch like this, it could be a very fun spring.

The Cardinals only managed one run off of Houston after scoring 10 on them the day before.  It took Colby Rasmus reaching on a Wallace error and coming around on singles by Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to win this one.  Also interesting to note that all the starters went at least eight innings in this game (save McClellan, of course).  Seems a bit early in spring for that to be happening--would think there were still enough player that the team needed to evaluate for Pujols to get his third or fourth at-bat.  Still over three weeks left in the spring.

Sunday's results weren't nearly as good for the Cards, as they fell 7-2.  The biggest reason why was that Jason Motte allowed five runs in his inning of work.  Dathan, who came out of the bullpen to relieve a sick Bill Ivie last night on Gateway To Baseball Heaven, and I speculated that Motte was just working on some of his offspeed pitches, trying to get something else consistently working.  That doesn't seem to be the case, as he was out there "just chucking."

That's really not what you want to hear about the guy that may take over the closing role at some point this year if Ryan Franklin struggles at all.  Motte's had enough times in the past where he's been lit up that he's got to know he can't just rely on smoking things past batters. I remember a quote I read a long time back, "These are major league hitters.  Eventually, they'd time bullets."

Like to think this kind of outing was a wake-up call for Motte.  If nothing else, he's gotten a value lesson on throwing rather than pitching.

The Cardinals only put up two against the Marlins a one run game the night before.  Very hard to get a feel for anything this early in the spring, of course, but you'd hate to think that the stop and start, feast and famine offensive threat was returning again this year.  That was one of the things Lance Berkman was supposed to help stop, keeping the lineup turning over.

Of course, he actually has to be in the ballgame.  He did play DH the last couple of days, which means he should have impacted the offense still, but he continues to be nursing different aches and pains.  Will these things work out as he gets back into actual playing shape?  I know he worked out a lot this offseason and got his weight down and everything, but there's a difference between working out and actually playing.  Hopefully he'll be back out in the outfield very soon.

If he's not, maybe Tyler Greene will be.  Greene started in center yesterday against Florida and that has to only add to his chances of making the team.  This is a day after he made a nice play in the hole at short against Houston.  If he's not the main utility guy come March 31, it'd be a huge shock.  Once he gets acclimated to the majors, he could be a pretty potent threat off the bench.

There was a public declaration early in the weekend that David Freese would start Sunday. It may not be surprising to you to know that he actually didn't, because Saturday he fouled a ball off his foot in batting practice.  This would be a warning sign that things were descending into parody, into the "you-can't-make-this-stuff-up" realm, but thankfully he's in the lineup for today's game against Minnesota.  Unless a bat slips out of someone's hands and conks him in the back after he drinks JoBu's rum.

Ryan Franklin turned 38 this weekend and, despite his earlier thoughts about retiring at the end of this year, he's not slowing down.  I don't think Franklin's a Cardinal next year--a successful season probably puts him out of the budget-conscious team's range, a less than successful one and they won't want him back--but he's been much more effective in the closer role than I ever thought.  I expected a big letdown last year and it really never game.  Plus, if you aren't following him on Twitter, you really should.  He's good about at least responding to just about any Tweet directed at him.

Chris Carpenter threw off a mound this weekend, missing his start on Sunday due to that hamstring injury.  He is still feeling it right now and couldn't go full bore in his bullpen session, but it apparently is getting better.  I don't know if he'll miss another start or not, but if so that might be more of an opportunity for the staff to see Lynn or Dickson.  

Interesting story about Allen Craig working on getting the inside pitch.  He worked with Mark McGwire this offseason and so far, the spring results are positive.  I think Craig is one of the more intriguing possibilities for this team this year, what with being able to move around some or be a pinch hitter with pop.  We'll see if he can keep this going through the spring and then into the season.

The first cuts of the spring were made, and Zack Cox and Shelby Miller were sent out.  This isn't a big surprise, being that neither of them were going to make the team, but I thought it was interesting in Miller's case because he stuck around so long in spring last year, getting 3-4 outings.  This year, he threw two scoreless innings, while Cox had a very good game in Berkman's stead last week.  We could see them again--it's not that far from major league camp if they need someone to fill in on a split-squad game or so--but a little bit of the luster leaves camp with them.

Before I get into today's Cardinal Approval Ratings, a quick link.  Chris Jaffe has written another interesting article with a Cardinal tie-in.  This time, it's about managerial milestones that are coming up in 2011.  Obviously, when those words are bandied about, Tony La Russa tends to make the list.

OK, approval ratings.  As those that voted (this year, 62 different entries, though not all voted for every person) know, this year they are broken up into three groups: Players, Management, and Media.  Every day between now and when I get them done (sometime next week), I'll reveal the voting on one of each of the groups.  I want to note that a couple of the voters used descriptions instead of numbers for their vote.  I have translated those into numeric values using my best judgement.

Today's player is Chris Carpenter.  Last year, Carp rated the third highest among polled players, coming in at 93.6%.  He then went out and had a slightly-less-than-standard Carpenter year, but stayed healthy for the whole season.

This year, Carpenter scores a 86.9% from all 62 voters.  I personally ranked him pretty high (94), but I would expect that there was a little recognition that he wasn't the Cy Young guy he was in the past.  At least one commenter was not impressed with his personality, saying that Carpenter "comes across arrogant, whiny, hot-headed and entitled."  One man's arrogant is another man's focused, so your mileage may vary.

The first management subject is the principal owner, Bill DeWitt Jr.  The man that signs the checks always stands out in the fanbase's mind, and yet five people did not rate him in the poll.  Last year, he received an 83% mark, but after a year where the team didn't make the playoffs and then were embroiled in Pujols negotiations that were unfulfilled, that marked slid to 71%, a three-year low.  (Fair disclosure: I put him down at 91.  You'll find I'm a fairly easy grader.)  Comments included that he's "consistently failed to field a competitive team" (which I strongly disagree with) and he "will score higher when he signs Pujols."

Our media member for the day is Post-Dispatch writer Derrick Goold.  Derrick's never been rated in these polls before, but he's regularly posting on his Bird Land blog as well as writing stories and interacting on Twitter.  I'm guessing media members are a little more interesting to us bloggers than some other fans, since there were only 47 ratings on him.  Those that did rate him, though, had a generally positive impression, as he tallied a 87.8% mark.  Interesting how people are perceived, though.  One commenter said that he "willing to tell Cards fans what they don't want to hear," while another indicated he was unwilling to step on any toes.  (BTW, my score for him: 90.)

A couple of Playing Peppers in the hopper for today, so be sure to check back on those!







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Heroes
Lance Berkman (24)
Albert Pujols (19)
Matt Holliday (15)
Chris Carpenter (10)
Kyle Lohse (9)
Yadier Molina (9)
Ryan Theriot (8)
David Freese (7)
Jaime Garcia (7)
Jon Jay (7)
Jake Westbrook (6)
Allen Craig (5)
Kyle McClellan (5)
Colby Rasmus (5)
Edwin Jackson (4)
Skip Schumaker (4)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Gerald Laird (2)
Nick Punto (2)
Marc Rzepczynski (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Lance Lynn (1)

2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Ryan Theriot (12)
Albert Pujols (11)
Jake Westbrook (10)
David Freese (8)
Ryan Franklin (7)
Jaime Garcia (7)
Fernando Salas (7)
Kyle Lohse (6)
Kyle McClellan (6)
Colby Rasmus (6)
Skip Schumaker (6)
Miguel Batista (5)
Chris Carpenter (5)
Daniel Descalso (5)
Matt Holliday (5)
Jon Jay (5)
Jason Motte (5)
Allen Craig (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Tyler Greene (4)
Yadier Molina (4)
Lance Berkman (3)
Mitchell Boggs (3)
Gerald Laird (3)
Edwin Jackson (2)
Trever Miller (2)
Corey Patterson (2)
Marc Rzepczynski (2)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Maikel Cleto (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Octavio Dotel (1)
Mark Hamilton (1)
Lance Lynn (1)
Nick Punto (1)
Arthur Rhodes (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Raul Valdes (1)
PJ Walters (1)

2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2011)
    Adam Wainwright 94.7% (down 0.9%)
    Matt Holliday 91.1% (up 6.6%)
    Albert Pujols 90.4% (down 8.3%)
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Derrick Goold 87.8%
    Chris Carpenter 86.9% (down 6.7%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Mike Shannon 84.9% (down 4.6%)
    John Rooney 84.3% (up 8.1%)
    Yadier Molina 83.7% (down 8.3%)
    Colby Rasmus 81.8% (up 5.0%)
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Jim Hayes 76.1%
    John Mozeliak 74.1% (down 12.0%)
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    Bill Dewitt 71.0% (down 12.0%)
    Tony La Russa 70.8% (down 10.2%)
    BJ Rains 70.4%
    Ricky Horton 69.1%
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Skip Schumaker 64.1% (down 17.0%)
    Al Hrabosky 63.2% (up 19.0%)
    Mark McGwire 62.5% (down 10.7%)
    Dan Lozano 58.7%
    Joe Strauss 57.5%
    Kyle Lohse 55.1% (down 11.7%)

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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