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Playing Pepper 2010: Houston Astros

Last year before the season began, I posed five questions to a blogger for each team, so as to get to know the rest of baseball.  I focus so heavily on the Cardinals that sometimes the rest of MLB can pass me by.  That went very well, so much so that it spawned not only a postseason edition but was part of the impetus for the formation of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

So this year, I've brought Playing Pepper back, with a little bit of a twist.  Instead of five questions, I posed 10 questions, and this year every team got the same set.  Plus, tapping into those BBA connections, I sent them to every blogger representing that team in the BBA.

We'll try to do two a day in a general alphabetical order, but things may change depending on responses.

Houston Astros
2009 Finish: 74-88, fifth in NL Central

The rivalry with Houston was an integral part of the past decade.  St. Louis and the Astros went back and forth in a well-played and classy contest.  For me, at least, I couldn't hate Houston because they went about things the right way and weren't, well, they weren't the Cubs.

The 'Stros fell on hard times last year, but James from Astros County and Mike from Farmstros take a look at what to expect out of them in the coming season.
  Continue Reading

The Cardinal Fan's Dilemma

Last night's results was about the worst-case scenario for those that want to see the Cards clinch the NL Central on the field.

Launching In Houston

Is there any way the Cardinals can arrange to play October facing Houston?

Cardinals Solve The Mystery

Sorry for the delay in today's post, but the power went out at my house last night and, as far as I know, hasn't returned yet.  Perhaps I need to have Mark DeRosa come by.

You knew it was going to be a good night when the Cards scored three runs off of Wandy Rodriguez in the first inning.  I mean, the Cards had only scored six runs total off of Rodriguez in his four other starts against them, so they were figuring him out early.  Then DeRosa came along and smacked two home runs, reminding people just why the Cards did trade for him.

Even Albert Pujols was able to solve Rodriguez, coming just inches away from his first long ball against him.  You know that he's going to be studying these at-bats this offseason, trying to make sure that he can tag Rodriguez sometime in 2010.  However, AP is still three HR from 50, as he's not gone deep since his two home run game against Milwaukee on the 9th.  He's still been producing since then, of course, but at a .306 BA/.444 SLG rate, not quite up to his norms.  But he's hit three doubles in the last two games, so he's probably just about ready for a hot streak.

You also have to like what you saw out of Kyle Lohse last night.  Yes, he gave up two homers, but it was in Houston, not necessarily known as a pitcher's park.  Plus they were solo shots.  He limited the damage, enjoyed his lead, and came out with a successful appearance.  Obviously, he hasn't earned back his #4 starter role for the playoffs yet, but he did take a big step toward that.  I think that management is going to be really looking for reasons to give him that slot so they can use John Smoltz as a reliever, so if he can have another two starts that are similar to this one, he'll probably get the job.

Looking at last night's game, it's hard to pick a Goat.  Lohse and those that followed him, Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan, pitched well.  Motte continues to make the case that he's turned the corner and can be a bit more trusted than he was in the middle of the season.  Every St. Louis starter had at least one hit, and DeRosa, Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Jason LaRue and Matt Holliday had two or more.

So it's pretty much a make-up call, but I'm going to apply the tag to Ryan Ludwick.  My fellow UCBer from Stan Musial's Stance took issue with him not being the Goat Sunday, with good reason.  So since he just went 1 for 4 in this one, we'll give it to him.

Lots of discussion right now about the future of TLR.  Jeff Gordon says that he'd leave one of the best jobs in baseball behind if he did call it quits.  TLR says he's too busy to think about it, though you expect it's crossed his mind a few times.  It's hard to think about anyone else running the ship, but I guess we'll find out at the end of the year whether that's an adjustment we need to make.  Personally, it works either way for me.  He's done a great job here, but losing some of the drama wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

If they'd get some help from Milwaukee, the Cards might be able to cut their magic number to one (which would be a tie for the title, something that LaRussa won't acknowledge).  Joel Pineiro takes his turn on the bump against Yorman Bazardo.  Pineiro has struggled with the 'Stros hitters historically and has struggled so far in September as well, so even though he's had a good bit of success against Houston this year, there's no assurance that will continue into tonight's game.

Bazardo hasn't ever faced the Cardinals before and is sporting an 8.50 ERA.  He's given up 24 hits and 13 walks in 18 innings.  If you've followed the Cardinals for any length of time, you know that this is a script for the youngster to throw six scoreless innings at the club.  If they can be patient, they'll be able to figure him out or get runners on.  Patience, however, is not necessarily what they are known for.

Razor Thin Margins

If Ryan Ludwick hits a fly ball, the Cards would have won three straight games against the Cubs in the ninth inning.  What a weekend series, huh?  Let's recap:

Friday (3-2 win)
Hero: Matt Holliday.  Walk-offs in your first game in the Cards/Cubs rivalry will do that.
Goat: Albert Pujols.  Don't expect the only guy that's hitless to be him, but there you have it.
Notes: John Smoltz had his second straight rough beginning to a game, then settled in.  However, when this offense isn't clicking, you really run a risk by putting them in a hole.  They can come back, but there's no guarantee that they will.  Plus, does that bode ill for Smoltz coming out of the pen in the playoffs, if he does?....Nice to see a sharp Kyle McClellan.  Having him on track could be a huge thing, especially if Ryan Franklin continues to stumble.

Saturday (2-1 win)
Hero: Brendan Ryan.  Even if he got an assist on his home run, he still drove in the only two runs of the game with three hits.
Goat: Ryan Franklin.  Before his first pitch, I was really thinking Tony LaRussa needed to leave in Chris Carpenter.  Carp threw 101 pitches and wasn't showing signs of tiring.  I'd have rather had him start the inning, at least, before moving to Franklin.  And for his blown save and ruination of Carp's great day, he gets the win.  Baseball's not always just.  LaRussa's not worried about him yet, but I'm not nearly as confident in him as I was just a month ago.
Notes: Carpenter was dealing.  Getting that win might have bumped him to the front of the Cy Young race, though there's no doubt the outing as a whole helped a lot....when your #2 and #3 hitters don't get a hit, you know it's going to be a low-scoring game.  Ryan Dempster was on almost as much as Carpenter was, which made for a memorable game.

Sunday (6-3 loss in 11)
Hero: Adam Wainwright.  If he'd gotten a better turn on the double play, he might have left the game with it tied.  Just looking at some of the games he has lost this season, with some decent run support in those games, he'd already have 20 locked up.  Another special outing that shows why you can't necessarily name the "ace" of the Cardinal staff.
Goat: Mitchell Boggs.  I hate to give it to him because the game never should have gotten there, but not only does he give up the winning home run, but puts more runners on after that.
Notes: If anyone really should get the Goat, it's Tony LaRussa.  Bunting Mark DeRosa in the ninth inning just didn't make sense on any level.  If he's successful, then they walk Pujols.  Even if he hits into a DP, that means Pujols bats.  Take your chances, see if you can't put another runner on or even put runners on the corners with nobody out.  (They'd have still walked AP, but at least then even a DP--unless it goes home--would score the winning run.)  When you have such a weapon as Pujols, you want to make sure he hits in a situation like that.  Don't give the other team a reason to take the bat out of his hands.

You can argue about that play in the ninth all day, though.  I don't know how much of a comparison you can make to the one in the sixth when the Cubs forced Brendan Ryan to throw the ball away trying to turn two.  (He should have eaten it and not done a double pump.)  I don't know if the Cub runner was as far out as Holliday was in the ninth or not.   After watching Ludwick scramble to the base after Derek Lee missed the tag, though, it was pretty heart-rending to have that kind of call decide the game.  But if it's the rules, it's the rules, and you can't argue, in my mind, terribly much about it.  It was preordained, anyway, since the ESPN guys had just finished talking about how Ludwick had the highest fly ball to ground ball ratio in the bigs.  After that, how could he NOT hit a grounder?

Coming out of the weekend, though, the Cards are still within 4 games of clinching the division.  While it was nice to think, briefly, that it was at 2, winning two out of three against Chicago is a good thing, especially with the solid pitching they faced this weekend.  It's not the ideal result, surely, and it'd been nice to see them score a bit more often, but you can take it and like it.

After working on my Top 7 prospects for Friday and getting them published, the news comes out that Wagner Mateo has some sort of vision problem and it could be to the point that he'll never play for anyone.  You can read the Future Redbirds discussion on this over here, but you have to feel pretty bad for Mateo if it is true and it is a degenerative condition.  Having vision problems at 16?  And having a dream (and a possible fortune) taken away at the same time?  That'd be pretty bad for anyone, especially someone in this situation.

Cardinals head down to Houston tonight, with the chance to clinch while they are down there.  (The Cubs get to go to their home away from home in Milwaukee, but the Brew Crew did just beat them twice last week.)  Kyle Lohse continues to try to show that he can do something for this team.  Lohse has had a season to forget, especially on the injury front, but he still has time to look sharp and take that fourth starter role.  He's had reasonable success in the past against the Houston hitters, but if he's not on the top of his game this one could be out of control fast.

Not only because of Lohse, of course, but because the Cardinals get the rare good fortune of facing Wandy Rodriguez.  On the list of Cardinal killers, Rodriguez is right up there.  After Pujols belted a home run of Jeff Suppan the last time the Cards were in Milwaukee, Rodriguez moved to the active leader in most ABs against AP without El Hombre going yard.  Heck, it was just his last game against Wandy that Pujols finally got an extra-base hit off of the guy.  If Lohse doesn't have it early, this could be a long night.

Offense, Bullpen Lets Down Carpenter

While Chris Carpenter wasn't the pitching Jedi yesterday that we in Cardinal Nation have come to expect, you have to think that in most times, with most bats, two runs in six innings is likely enough to get you a win.  Even if a guy walks the last two guys in the order, that's not sin enough for penalty, is it?

Oh, That Cardinal Pitching

I'm a pitching fan.  I love seeing dominant pitching performances, low-hit games, games where you know that early runs will hold up and the game moves briskly along.

That's why this incarnation of the St. Louis Cardinals is so much fun for me.  When you've got a group of starters that have gone 28-3 with a 1.89 ERA since July 1, you know that night in and night out, you are getting ridiculously good pitching.

That held up last night as Joel Pineiro kept the run alive.  Save for a spell in the fourth where the ground balls actually made it through for hits, Pineiro kept the Astros off the basepaths, usually by getting them to hit the ball right back to him.  I don't think I've seen a pitcher make so many plans in one game in a long time.  It's a good thing Pineiro is a heck of a fielder, because he got plenty of action last night.

With the fact that he'd thrown only 87 pitches, I really wanted to see him come back out for the ninth.  I'm thinking that, if Brendan Ryan had reached leading off the bottom of the eighth, Pineiro might have stayed in to sacrifice.  Still, the bullpen is well-rested, something that's likely to continue today with Chris Carpenter going.  By Friday, if John Smoltz isn't ready to go over five innings, it won't be an issue because the bullpen guys are going to need work anyway.

On the down side, the offense still needs to get on track.  It looked like things were going to be better last night with that first inning explosion, but for the second night in a row, that's all she wrote.  It's not like they didn't have their chances, leaving numerous runners on.  However, it seemed like most of those situations came up with two outs, needing a hit to get it done.  That hit didn't come.  (BTW, check out this trivia Tweet from Fox Sports Midwest about winning games by just scoring in the first.)

The worst of the offense last night had to be Rick Ankiel, in my book.  Not only was he the only person in the lineup not to get a hit, but he had the most miserable at-bat I've seen in a while in the 7th.  He took two fastballs that were right there without even looking like he was going to offer at them.  If he looked that lost after a strong batting practice, it may be time to keep him off the field for a while.

I talked some about the National League Cy Young race here yesterday.  There's a better breakdown at Viva El Birdos today that comes to the same conclusion that Tim Lincecum will win it.  However, Rob Neyer thinks one of the Redbird hurlers will get the hardware.

Afternoon game today, pitting Chris Carpenter against Brian Moehler as the Cardinals look for the sweep.   Carp's done pretty good against the 'Stros this year, giving up two runs in eight innings in a no decision and one run over nine in a win.  His career numbers are favorable as well, as long as he keeps Lance Berkman in the park.  And, as hard as it is to believe, he's been more dominanting in the day games (1.69 ERA) than night ones (2.36).  If he's the regular Carpenter today, the Cards aren't going to be giving Houston much of a chance.

Moehler, though his total numbers don't look impressive, was able to limit St. Louis to two runs over six and two-thirds back in July.  If his career numbers are any indication, though, it would be a good day for the offense to get rolling.  You can see there that Albert Pujols has some strong power numbers against Moehler.  Looking at AP's splits, he's hit 16 of his 40 homers in day games, even though he's played 40 fewer games under the sun.  Put all that together, and #41 might be coming today.

Lots of places to follow along, from Twitter to CardsClubhouse to the FSN Live Blog.  Let's see if we can't use the brooms today! 

Something Special

While Adam Wainwright may not get his own MLB "Beyond" commercial like his first baseman did, but the Cardinal right-hander is producing some living history of his own.

Wainwright stretched his streak of going at least six innings (which is serious stuff, of course) to 25 straight games while running another streak, of giving up two runs or less, out to 12.  The note from the game story really puts in into perspective:

During his mind-bending season of 1968, Bob Gibson had a run of 11 such starts. Since 1954, only John Tudor's streak of 15 in 1987-88 is longer.

You pass Bob Gibson on a list like this, especially something he did in '68? You've done something remarkable.

Being able to see Wainwright and Chris Carpenter continue to go out there and put up zeros is incredible, something that we'll be talking about for years to come, I expect.  When was the last time there were two serious contenders for the Cy Young going on the Redbird staff?  There are years where the season Joel Pineiro is having would be leaps and bounds the highlight of the pitching staff.  Now, it's an afterthought.

I'm sure the advanced metrics still go toward Tim Lincecum and I'm not like Al, who said on the broadcast last night that he'd go with Wainwright "because he has 15 wins" and indicated he'd change his mind if Carpenter had more wins.  That said, there has to be at least an argument to give the award to one of these guys, doesn't there?

I never have figured out a way to do a table on this blog, so bear with me as I put out some numbers and look at Tim Lincecum as he stacks up to our two guys.

Wins: TL 12, CC 14, AW 15*
IP: TL 185.1, CC 145.2, AW 187.0*
ERA: TL 2.43, CC 2.16*, AW 2.50
K: TL 214*, CC 111, AW 157
WHIP: TL 1.041, CC 0.961, AW 1.209
BAA: TL .210, CC .223, AW
K/BB: TL 4.20, CC 4.83, AW 2.91
HR: TL 8, CC 7, AW 15
(*--league leader)

Looking at those numbers, it looks like Wainwright lags behind the other two in most categories, meaning the race would be between Lincecum and Carpenter.  Which is probably what it is going to come down to.  But let's factor out the early season glitches of Wainwright and see what the lines look like since June 1.

Wainwright: 10-4, 115 IP, 106 H, 8 HR, 1.96 ERA, .241 BAA, WHIP 1.15, WPA 3.14
Carpenter: 11-3, 116.2 IP, 101 H, 7 HR, 2.55 ERA, .239 BAA, WHIP 1.02, WPA 3.17
Lincecum: 8-3, 120 IP, 83 H, 7 HR, 2.10 ERA, .193 BAA, WHIP 0.96, WPA 2.64

Even factoring that in, Lincecum is the leader for the award.  However, the margin is fairly slim, and he's been a little more human in August, so if he slips much further, a continued press by either of the Cardinal hurlers might sneak them in there.  If the Giants miss the playoffs, that might skew some voters to the Redbirds as well.

Nice to see Albert Pujols at least partially solve one of his long-time tormentors.  He may have had only one hit, but when it's a game like last night, you take what you can get, plus one run may make the difference.  We'll see if he can bring a little more thunder in the next couple of games.

Tough to really name a Goat last night, because you have to give so much credit to the way Wandy Rodriguez was pitching.  I guess we'll give it to Mark DeRosa, because while he wasn't the only person to go hitless, he was the only one to strike out twice.

Lot of hoopla before the game as Shelby Miller got his formal introduction to the life of a Cardinal.  Now he moves from the realm of this blog and those like it to more of a regular Future Redbirds content provider as he heads down to Quad Cities to get started.  It'll be interesting to see how his couple of appearances in the next week or so pan out. I hope that he'll be all they expect him to be, because having a dominant pitching prospect to keep an eye on is something that's been lacking in the past few years.

It's another fun pitching matchup tonight as Pineiro takes on Roy Oswalt.  Oswalt's numbers against the Cardinals this year are skewed by the Easter weekend beatdown he took, giving up six runs in six innings.  His last time was much closer to the Oswalt we've come to expect, though St. Louis still hung three on him in seven innings.

In his career, he's done OK, though those batting averages on the whole are higher than I would have expected.  Pujols has done pretty well against him, smoking five homers, and newcomers DeRosa and Matt Holliday aren't that mystified by him either.  It might be that the offense could get a bit more on track tonight after all.

Pineiro has only faced the Astros once in 2009, way back in his first start of the year.  He allowed two runs in just under seven innings to sent the tone for what has been an amazing season for him.  The Astros have good career numbers against him, but we've seen time and time again this year that the past seems to have no impact on the present Joel Pineiro.

Remember tonight that dangerously dynamic duo from Pitchers Hit Eighth host the UCB Radio Hour.  9:30 Central time and they will have as a guest the writer covering the Springfield Cards.  You can find an interview with her here.  Come and join us!

Off Day Miscellany

No major moves.  No breaking stories.  Just a quiet, ho-hum off day.  Which means there's not too much to write about.  So let's just hit a few links before we take a look at the series that starts tonight vs. Houston.

Matthew Leach has another of his mailbags up.  Possibly the most interesting point was that Jamie Garcia is now off rehab and is pitching for Memphis, but he likely won't get much of a look in the bigs this year.  You'd think that they might want to see him in September, get him a few innings more of work, but I can understand the desire to not press their luck.

Josh at Redbirds Row does a quick recap of where we stand now, then announces his move to Pitchers Hit Eighth.  Which means tomorrow night's UCB Radio Hour will be basically sponsored by PH8, since Josh and founder Nick will be hosting.

Cardinal John has a little fun with his Red Sox-loving cousin.  Like La Beisbolista said on her Facebook page, wouldn't it be ironic if John Smoltz got the win and Julio Lugo a key hit in a 2004 Series rematch?  While Boston is paying both of those guys to beat them?

While the Cardinals can be forgiven for looking to October, there's still a month of baseball to be played.  Stranger things have happened, and the team isn't getting ahead of itself.  You would expect a TLR-managed team to stay focused and continue to pile up the wins.

My monthly post is up today at Baseball Reflections, if you want to check that out.  August was a very good month to write about!

Tonight, the Cardinals have to take on one of their nemesises in Wandy Rodriguez, whom has provoked some dislike in quarters of Cardinal Nation. Rodriguez has moved onto the list of Cardinal killers, not in the least because he can shut down Albert Pujols as well as just about anyone.  The Cardinals can beat him--he's 1-1 in three starts against them this year--but it won't be a slugfest, as he's only allowed a 2.65 ERA against the Birds in 2009.

However, if you are going into a game that you don't expect to score much in, it's a good thing to be taking a Cy Young candidate into it with you.  If momentum means anything, Adam Wainwright has got it.  His combined ERA for the months of July and August?  1.34. He's given up 11 earned runs in the that span, which is fewer than he gave up in May and June each.  He's been particularly tough on the Astros as well this year, fashioning a 1.50 ERA with one win in two starts.  He lost a 2-0 game in his last start against them, but in his career he's done all right against people not named Hunter Pence.

Should be a good, quick, low-scoring game tonight and I'm looking forward to watching it.  If you missed James's take from the Houston side of things, you can find that post below.

Cubs host the Nationals tonight, so if the Cards want to keep that streak of not losing ground to the Baby Bears since July 30 (on days the Cards have played), they probably better find a way to win tonight.  Hate to see that eight game lead drop at all, wouldn't we?

The View From Houston

Earlier this year, James from Astros County and I agreed to do something to note each series that Houston and St. Louis played against each other.  This time around, it's a blog swap.  You can see my comments over at his blog soon (edit--it's up now), but for now, read how a devoted Astros fan sees the upcoming series.

Alright, Cardinals fans, I hope you can put aside the fact that you're going to win the NL Central for a few minutes and listen to the grumblings of an Astros fan. The time before the last time we met, we Astros fans left feeling pretty good about ourselves. The Astros had just swept the Cardinals, and we were riding high - two one-run wins, and a game back of the NL Central lead. And then everything went to hell for the Astros. After that third game, the Astros were 49-46, and I was ready to send a steaming bag of poo to Baseball Prospectus (who predicted the Astros would go 66-96, finishing behind the Pirates for last place). But then age and injuries caught up with the Astros. Lance Berkman went on the DL and Roy Oswalt was dealing with back problems around the same time. Russ Ortiz would be released within a week of the sweep against the Cardinals; and the Astros are 12-17 since that sweep, including winning four of our last five games.
 
As far as I'm concerned, at least the Cubs are right there with us.
 
It's astonishing what Matt Holliday has done for you since that trade. Initially I was all for this trade, because Mozeliak was mortgaging the future for a guy who was hitting .286. Then you got Julio Lugo, and I was basically clapping with glee. I may have wet my pants - we'll never know as the evidence has been laundered. Now I'm scared to death that Holliday going to pull a McGwire and love St. Louis so much that he signs an extension. This is the one instance in which I hope he's a greedy SOB allows Boras to be his own personal Uncle Pennybags -as long as it's not St. Louis. And I'm equally scared that Lugo was just sand-bagging his career with the Astros, Rays, and Red Sox, and has decided to explode now. Because with Holliday in the lineup, there's just no comparing the Astros and Cardinals respective lineups. On paper, the Astros should be right there - but they're just...not. They're too old. And that's frustrating. But offense wasn't going to be a big problem for Houston, the question all along was the rotation. I said it before: If Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are the answer, then Ed Wade is asking the wrong question. Now Ortiz is gone, and Mike Hampton's arm has predictably detached from his shoulder. So this series won't affect the Astros' 2009 too much, but it gives us Astros fans hope, because owner Drayton McLane will most likely be watching, and we're just hoping that he'll notice what a team with a balance in free agency/trades and minor league talent looks like.
 
On to this series: Part of the reason the Astros swept you back in July was because of the pitching matchups. Now those move more favorably towards you this time around. We have to deal with Wainwright and Carpenter and an emerging Pineiro. Luckily for Houston, we have Oswalt and Magic Wandy going this series. I think Oswalt will take the Wednesday game, Carpenter will take the Thursday game against Moehler, and the rubber match will actually be the first game of the series, with Wandy vs. Wainwright. Your offense gets the nod, and I fully expect you to take the series. With the Cubs hosting the Nationals, there's the potential that the Nationals could screw up and win two of those games. 
 
Basically Houston is 10 back with 38 to play. Even if the Astros somehow pull off a sweep, one of our beat writers tells us, we still have to be seven games better than you - in 35 games - to win the division. That's a tall order, even for a "second-half team," a term meeting a timely end this season. So here's to finishing ahead of the Cubs.

Also on the Network: √ 2009: The Curse Of Shea Stadium [Loge 13] √ Braden Looper: Now More than Ever! [El Lefty Malo] √ The Ballad of Ricky-Bobby: March Madness [Tremendous Upside Potential] √ Playing Pepper 2010: Oakland Athletics [C70 At The Bat] √ Book Review: Joe Cronin, A Life In Baseball [C70 At The Bat] √ Happy Birthday, Loge 13 [Loge 13] √ Things to Read: 3/11 [Tremendous Upside Potential] √ The Farm Team to Watch [El Lefty Malo]