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Sigh-Inducing

Posted on August 18, 2010 at 8:34 AM

Just when you start to believe in this team, to think that they've finally found that gas pedal on the team car, they stomp on the brakes. A four game winning streak to get into first place? Let's follow that up with three losses against sub-.500 teams! I feel like I'm a driving instructor.

Of course, if Felipe Lopez could figure out how to handle a double play ball, perhaps we wouldn't be having this conversation. Both his wild throw in the second and his inability to field a grounder in the third led to some problems. Jaime Garcia was able to pitch out of the first situation, since the bottom of the lineup was coming up. He did a pretty good job of pitching out of the second, but Casey McGehee took a pretty good pitch all the way over the center field wall. If Lopez fields that ball, though, odds are McGehee isn't up there.

Garcia looked pretty good last night, for the most part. His ball was moving and, save for the McGehee at bat, he didn't give up much. Three walks was much better to see and I'm thinking without having to face those extra hitters due to Lopez's imitation of Dr. Strangeglove, he might have gotten through the seventh. The Cards need him to be solid down the stretch and it was good to see that it probably wasn't overwork that has gotten to him in his last few outings.

Nice to see Albert Pujols go yard again. Just when you start to get worried about AP being something around mere mortal, he hits August and goes ballistic. 30 HR for the 10th straight year, already 50th all time in home runs and just needs three more for 400. Absolutely incredible.

The Reds won, which means that the Cardinals are exactly where they were before that Reds series--two games back. St. Louis really can't afford to lose Garcia or Carpenter starts, but there's no way they can lose Adam Wainwright starts and still plan on being competitive. Waino going is almost a gimme, one that you have to take.

Wainwright will go this afternoon against Randy Wolf. Wolf being a lefty can give the Cards problems, and even this year, when his cumulative ERA is over four and a half, he's limited to the Cards to a 3.66 mark the three times he has faced them.

Good thing it is the Wagonmaker going, then. He has a 1.30 ERA in day games, a 1.22 ERA at home and a 0.50 ERA vs. Milwaukee in two starts this year. If the numbers mean anything (and I'm not sure they do, but let's go with it), a Pujols home run might be all Adam needs today. Most likely, it's going to be another pitcher's duel, one the Cardinals really must win.

With all the prospects signing, Derrick Goold takes a look at what that means for the top of the Cardinal system. I don't think you can put anyone ahead of Shelby Miller, especially when you see what he's been doing lately, but it's nice to have some new talent to bolster those rankings. The UCB will be doing their Top 7 Projects come mid-September, so keep an eye out for that and see what we think about the baby 'Birds.

If this isn't enough for you, a couple of more opportunities to put up with me. This week at Baseball Digest, they are running a series on competitive balance in baseball, with a focus on the economic side of things. The first in the series ran yesterday, and you should be able to see my entry today at BD if you look for it.

Secondly, it's Wednesday which means another UCB Radio Hour at Blog Talk Radio. Tonight, Bill from i70baseball and myself will be talking with Rob Rains and, possibly, former Cardinal Andy Van Slyke. Should be a fun time and I expect we'll be able to take some calls if you want to join us on air. If not, the chat room is always open! As always, 9:30 to 10:30 Central and the phone number is 646-929-1758. Hopefully we have a Cardinal win to discuss as well!

Filed Under: Heroes and Goats | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | United Cardinal Bloggers Comments (2)

Looking To The Future

Posted on August 17, 2010 at 8:31 AM

There may not have been any games on the field last night, but there were some late-night anxious moments anyway.

Last night was the deadline for signing picks from the most recent draft. Without a contract in place by midnight, those players would go back to school and re-enter the draft pool at some future date. The Cards were able to land a couple of their big fish, but one of the biggest, as expected, got away.

Right after the midnight Eastern deadline, the Cardinals announced that they had signed Zack Cox to a major league deal. I don't remember the Cards handing out a deal like that in the past, meaning that Cox starts out on the 40-man roster and begins burning options I assume immediately. I'm not completely sure, but it would seem like the first option would get used this year when they send him to the minors, meaning that he'd have to be in St. Louis for good by the start of 2013. Being that he's a college player and fairly polished, along with being a hitter and not a pitcher, that might be a reasonable expectation, the thought being that if he isn't there by then, he's not going to be there.

The Cardinals were also able to sign first-round supplemental pick Seth Blair and second round pick Jordan Swagerty, to go along with Tyrell Jenkins, a first-round supplemental who had already signed. The organization feels like they got at least three if not four first-round-caliber players, so the draft was a strong success in their eyes.

However, it could have been even more wonderful had they been able to sign Austin Wilson. From reading about this guy and hearing what the team said when he had his day on the field earlier in the summer, he really sounded like an elite talent that could work his way up the minors quickly. Odds are the Cards won't have another chance at him, but it sounds like they did all they could, Wilson just really wanted to go to college. Hard to blame a kid for that.

Yesterday being an off-day also afforded Albert Pujols the opportunity to have his annual golf tournament. All funds, of course, are for the Pujols Family Foundation and all the work they do in the Dominican and the US. I thought it was neat that AP is expanding what he's doing down in the Dominican to bringing baseball to that part of the island. Imagine if the next great Cardinal star is down there, learning the game from equipment given to him by Pujols!

Lots of celebrities played in the golf tournament--Shaquille O'Neal, Ozzie Smith, Bo Jackson, Bobby Knight--but one guy that probably didn't get quite the following was Adam Wainwright. The Post-Dispatch ran a story this morning basically lining out the rationale behind the now-common phrase in Cardinal Nation: Waino is bueno. It was interesting to hear Wainwright basically admit that contract stuff was getting in his head, which is why he signed early so he could pitch without distractions. So many players say that doesn't play a role, so it's good to hear someone admit that it could.

Wainwright is a special talent and, from all appearances, a fairly good personality as well. Another season like this one and he'll be right there at the top of all the lists for great pitchers in the game.

Waino doesn't go until tomorrow, so tonight we see Jaime Garcia face off against the Brewers and Dave Bush. I'm a bit surprised that the Cardinals didn't try to rest Garcia, given the fact that there are two off days this week. Wainwright could have pitched today on full rest, with Westbrook going tomorrow, then Carpenter, Garcia and Wainwright this weekend. Garcia has been struggling recently, posting an ERA close to 7 in August. He's done very well against Milwaukee this year, though, putting up a 1.42 ERA in three starts with 16 strikeouts in 19 innings.

Bush has only thrown six innings against the Redbirds this year, giving up three runs but striking out seven. With Cincinnati out in Arizona, the Cardinals need to get to Bush early and put the pressure on them to win to keep the NL Central lead. We'll see if they are able to do that!

Filed Under: Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals Leave a Comment

A Cardinal Weekend

Posted on June 7, 2010 at 10:51 AM

The Cardinals had a good weekend against the Brewers, though it could have been better. Their slipup last night on ESPN's game of the week dropped them back into a tie for first. I go over this series and the Reds series in my weekly column, but let's take a look at them here as well.

For Friday, what more can you say about Adam Wainwright? He keeps pushing himself into the conversation for best National League pitcher. If you look at the last two years, who would really compete with him? Tim Lincecum has dropped off some this year. Roy Halladay was in the AL last year. Ubaldo Jimenez has been amazing this year, not as much last year. For the two year span, Waino is tops.

I was really glad to see him be able to come out and get that shutout. He's talked about it before, wanting to go out in the ninth to get one but be unable to due to pitch counts. So for him to be able to finally check that off on his career accomplishment list had to be a major high for him. However, with the way he's developed as a pitcher, it likely won't be the last. That JD Drew trade is just a gift that keeps on giving.

With him rolling like that, he didn't need much offense, but the Cardinal bats have been awoken and now, for the most part, the offense isn't the problem. They were able to put up eight runs in a game started by a lefty, so you know things are starting to come together.

Speaking of coming together, Colby Rasmus is on fire. Hitting a bomb off of a lefty in this game? Hitting .500 with three home runs over the two series with the Reds and Brewers? Those new contacts are obviously helping him out well, especially when you factor in that all the games this weekend were started by a left-handed pitcher and he had little trouble with any of them.

On the down side in Friday's game, Yadier Molina had another 0-fer game. While he's still hitting around .250 and the defense is still there, after the last couple of years I've been spoiled into thinking Molina's more of a .280-.300 hitter, so it'd be good to have him get some hits to fall in.

Saturday's hero has to be Colby Rasmus, who drove in three runs, including the game-winner. When Matt Holliday got out there in the 11th, I didn't give the team much of a chance, since Aaron Miles and Molina were coming up, but both of them came through and set it up for Rasmus to win it.

The Goat, in my book, is pretty darn obvious. If Dennys Reyes isn't going to get left-handed batters out, his value to this team drops precipitously. For the second straight outing, he wasn't able to get the left-handed hitters that he was brought into the game for out and it hurt the Cards. I know that the tying run was allowed by Kyle McClellan, who got tagged with a completely-unfair blown save, but it was Reyes's run. He can't be letting the lefties get on and he surely can't be walking them, as he did with Jim Edmonds.

Being that I was already in a bad mood from seeing Reyes's futility, when I returned from mowing my yard and saw Miles was in the game for David Freese, I about blew my top. I was glad that at least there was a reason, though I wasn't happy to hear that Freese had rolled his ankle. Doesn't sound like it'll be terribly serious, so hopefully he'll return soon.

More positively in this game, Albert Pujols went yard at home for the first time since early April. It's interesting to see that, even if AP isn't quite having a career year for him, he's still in Triple Crown contention. After Sunday, he was third in batting average, a point behind Joey Votto (and do we really expect Martin Prado to finish in the top spot?), tied for first in home runs and tied for first in RBI. Man, imagine where he'd be if he hadn't had that two-week span where he was barely hitting.

Last night's loss was pretty disappointing. For the second straight time (and, coincidentally or not, in the second straight game where the opposition had seen him before), Jaime Garcia came out with a rough first inning. Granted, there was an error mixed in there to give him an unearned run, but when the first three guys get a hit, you can't expect that inning to end well. Kudos to Garcia for batting and keeping the team in the game, though. After that bump, he only allowed a home run to Rickie Weeks.

Rasmus and Pujols both go yard and get the club within one before a Ryan Ludwick double and a Randy Winn (more on THAT in a bit) sac fly tie it up. Unfortunately, opportunities never were cashed in and, when you get late into the game or into extra innings, it doesn't take much to win and Milwaukee did that, getting the sac fly to put the go ahead run on the board.

Matt Holliday has to go down as the Goat in this one, I think. Jason Motte did have a bad 10th inning and take the loss, but the game should have never been in that situation. He popped out with Pujols on third in the seventh and grounded into a fielder's choice with two on in the ninth. A hit in either situation would have changed the outcome of the game, in all likelihood.

Give the Hero tag to Albert Pujols for his 15th home run plus turning one of his two walks into a triple by stealing second and going to third on the error. If Holliday gets the two-out hit, that might have been the biggest play of the game.

The off-field news of the weekend was that the Cardinals signed Winn and sent down Jon Jay. This was met, at least from what I saw on Twitter, with a lot of head-scratching, and my scalp got the same treatment. I understand the "they need at-bats" argument that the team has used to send down Jay and others, but I'm not sure I buy it as much in the case of Jay. He's had his tour of the minors, he's 25, I don't know that there's a lot more everyday play can do for him. He's already proven that he can handle the role, hitting .302 and starting to show some power in the bigs.

Winn, on the other hand, can be generously noted as being past his prime. Perhaps he still has something in his bat, though his results with the Yankees didn't indicate that. We'll have to wait and see, but this really seems like an unnecessary move. Unless......

My first inclination when hearing about this move is that Jay (most likely, though it could be any of the outfielders) is going to be part of a deal for a starting pitcher. Winn allows for depth as well as letting Jay showcase himself in Memphis with the knowledge that at least some of that production can translate to major league results as well. If I had to place a bet, I'd say Jay is traded before the end of July, but we'll have to wait and see.

As of this morning, the starter for tonight's Dodger game hasn't been announced. Sounds like it'll likely be Blake Hawksworth, though, letting PJ Walters get a little bullpen time. Being that Adam Ottavino has already been announced as taking his next turn, you have to wonder where Walters fits in. Then again, since Brad Penny is likely out for another month or so, there should be plenty of mixing and matching in that slot. Unless the Cards are proactive and make a move, something I don't expect to happen.

The Dodgers are sending out to the mound Carlos Monasterios, a guy that honestly I've not heard of before, I don't think. He's got solid numbers for this year in 14 games (three starts) and when you factor in the pitching park that LA plays in, it could be a long night for the offense. Hopefully whomever pitches for the Birds can make it the same way for the Dodgers.

Filed Under: Heroes and Goats | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals Leave a Comment

Dramatic Weekend

Posted on April 12, 2010 at 8:04 AM

Well, that was an interesting Brewers series, wasn't it? Lots to talk about in it, but let's hit last night's game--and its most troubling aspect--first.

I knew something was off with Chris Carpenter in the first inning. Sure, the leadoff home run wasn't good, but I could imagine him shaking that off and moving on. What worried me was, along with that homer, three fly ball outs. When was the last time Carp got three fly ball outs in an inning?

Along with the three runs he allowed, he only recorded 15 outs. Four were strikeouts. One was a ground ball, nine were fly balls. (I guess the liner that turned into a double play counted as a fly ball.) That was a 10% ground ball ratio. There's not an easy way to sort by ground ball rate at Baseball Reference, but it looks like this is a pretty rare occurrence.

Last year, Carp had 15 games where he had nine or more fly ball outs. All of those games, he went at least six innings. The worst ratio in one of those games was 13 flies to six grounders in a game he won against the Cubs around the All-Star Break last year. Still, 31.5% is a little different than 10%.

Being that Carpenter got 11 grounders to four flies (even though he allowed a couple of long balls) in his opener against the Reds, it's probably just a bad game, not a symptom of a bigger problem. But when a guy gives up five homers in two games after giving up seven in an entire season last year, you start to get concerned. Carp goes against the Mets next time out at home, so we'll see how that works out for him.

If it wasn't for Carpenter, you'd probably give the goat tag to David Freese for making a couple of errors, plus one that was ruled a hit that could have gone either way. He's still learning his way over there and there's no other option, really, but it'd be nice to see him a little smoother with the glove. He did have a nice play to end one inning, so hopefully the potential is there.

I don't fault Kyle McClellan too much for giving up the long ball that ended the game. Anytime you get into those tie situations in the ninth or extras on the road, one mistake ends the game. That's what happened here. Things like that happen and you move on. It's more of an issue when you let them score 2-3 runs late, I think.

The Hero has to be Albert Pujols for hitting two homers to bring the team back, though Matt Holliday should get an honorable mention for the game-tying homer off of Trevor Hoffman. You know, the Cardinals used to get dominated by Hoffman, but it doesn't look like that'll be the case this year.

Let's take a quick look back at the other two games of the series. Friday night, you gotta give it to Nick Stavinoha, with the two-out, two-strike, two-run home run that gave the Cardinals the lead, a lead Ryan Franklin actually managed to preserve without too much aggravation. Ryan Ludwick gets the Goat, I'd guess, with an 0-4 in the two hole, compounded by three strikeouts. Kyle Lohse pitched a tolerable game, though it was hard to consider it that since it was the worst game of the year by a starter (until last night, of course). If Lohse can pitch like that in the four slot in the rotation, though, the Cards will be OK.

Saturday, we were all honkin' for Jaime and he really didn't disappoint. Jaime Garcia gave up just one run in six innings, and though he walked three, he only allowed four hits and struck out five. Not bad for a rookie with only one other start under his belt, huh? 'Course, it probably helped that the Cardinals were able to jump on Yovani Gallardo quickly. That home run by Yadier Molina was absolutely crushed. Everyone did pretty well in this game, even the bullpen, so I'll give the Goat to David Freese, for his 0-3.

Cards get to open up Busch Stadium with a mid-afternoon game against a Houston team that is still searching for its first win. I expect to have perspective on the 'Stros from my friend James of Astros County later on today. Adam Wainwright faces off against noted Cardinal nemesis Wandy Rodriguez. The charts follow, Waino vs. the 'Stros first and Cards vs. Wandy next. Have a great one and enjoy opening day in St. Louis!

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	GDP
Hunter Pence	26	26	9	2	0	1	1	0	8	.346	.346	.538	.885	0	0	0
Carlos Lee	25	20	1	1	0	0	3	3	2	.050	.160	.100	.260	0	2	1
Kazuo Matsui	22	21	6	1	0	1	1	0	1	.286	.286	.476	.762	1	0	0
Michael Bourn	19	17	5	2	1	0	1	2	5	.294	.368	.529	.898	0	0	0
Geoff Blum	11	11	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	.182	.182	.273	.455	0	0	0
Jeff Keppinger	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.167	.000	.167	0	0	0
Roy Oswalt	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	1	0	0
Wandy Rodriguez	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Pedro Feliz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Humberto Quintero	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500	0	0	0
Brett Myers	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Bud Norris	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	1	0	0
J.R. Towles	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Jason Michaels	2	2	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	.500	.500	2.000	2.500	0	0	0
Total	140	129	27	7	1	3	11	6	25	.209	.241	.349	.590	3	2	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/12/2010.

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	IBB	HBP	GDP
Albert Pujols	37	31	5	2	0	0	1	6	1	.161	.297	.226	.523	0	2	0	2
Ryan Ludwick	29	26	7	2	0	0	2	2	11	.269	.345	.346	.691	0	0	1	0
Yadier Molina	29	28	7	1	0	0	3	1	5	.250	.276	.286	.562	0	0	0	1
Felipe Lopez	21	19	5	1	0	1	3	2	2	.263	.333	.474	.807	0	0	0	1
Matt Holliday	20	19	6	1	1	2	3	1	3	.316	.350	.789	1.139	0	0	0	1
Brendan Ryan	18	18	4	0	0	0	3	0	4	.222	.222	.222	.444	0	0	0	0
Skip Schumaker	13	13	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	.308	.308	.308	.615	0	0	0	1
Jason LaRue	11	8	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	.250	.455	.250	.705	0	0	1	0
Colby Rasmus	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	.125	.000	.125	0	0	0	0
Kyle Lohse	6	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.250	.250	.250	.500	2	0	0	0
Adam Wainwright	6	6	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	.167	.167	.333	.500	0	0	0	0
David Freese	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Joe Mather	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Nick Stavinoha	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Chris Carpenter	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Total	208	189	42	8	1	3	17	15	39	.222	.286	.323	.609	2	2	2	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/12/2010.

Filed Under: Heroes and Goats | Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals Leave a Comment

Making Applesauce

Posted on April 9, 2010 at 7:52 AM

Yesterday's game must have been a nice ripe apple, because Motte made sauce out of it.

While in some respects it's true, as Matthew Leach Tweeted yesterday after the game, that the reason they lost isn't because of Jason Motte, but the most immediate reasoning is that he threw six fastballs in relatively the same place to a fastball hitter. While I've thought that Motte could be a closer at times (and noticed the Sports Illustrated baseball preview made the suggestion he should), the caveat is that he has to develop another pitch. It's been said that major league hitters could time bullets if you kept firing them at the plate. Continuing to just throw fastball after fastball, even at great speeds, isn't going to get the job done. Dusty Baker was quoted after the game as saying, "Frankly, I was surprised he threw him another fastball." This is why Dusty sometimes gets derided in the sabermetric/informed crowd, because Dusty, EVERYBODY knew he was going to throw another fastball.

Right now, though, there's not much option but to ride out Motte and Ryan Franklin, because there aren't solid replacements ready and waiting. To be fair, this is just the third game of the season and things can change quickly, so perhaps it's a little overreaction. However, when you factor in how often Motte gave up long balls last year and how Franklin looked down the stretch, there's a larger sample size to deal with and it doesn't look all that good.

The Post-Dispatch story makes the point: Starters so far this year for St. Louis have given up five runs in 20 innings. The relievers have given up six runs (five earned) in 6.1 innings. For all the Cardinals did against the soft underbelly of the Reds bullpen, it easily could be that turnabout is fair play.

You really have to tip your cap to Bronson Arroyo, though. I watched some of that game at lunch and listened to more at work and his pitches were really moving and keeping the Cardinal hitters off balance. Of course, the fact that he was pretty motivated against the Redbirds didn't hurt a bit, I don't expect. It's possible Scott Rolen was up for the game as well, as he made some spectacular plays over at third, just like the Rolen we knew and loved.

On the very positive side for St. Louis, Brad Penny threw a gem. If this is what the Cards are going to get out of Penny on a consistent basis, this rotation is going to challenge last year's for the number of great games the team gets out of them. I mentioned that one thing I wanted to look for was if Penny was getting ground balls. He retired 13 batters in that manner yesterday, coupled with four strikeouts, so I'd say that the Duncan philosophy has taken root.

Matt Holliday went yard, so early returns on that contract are going well. Skip Schumaker came around a little bit by getting a couple of hits on a day where hits were rare, so maybe he'll start becoming more of a factor. (Hits were rare is an understatement--these are the only two guys that got any!)

Now the team has to shake that off and move on to Milwaukee. At least the schedule gives us a fine chance to see how the Cards stack up against some of the potential problems in the division.

Kyle Lohse goes this evening in his first start of the season. He's already got a lot to live up to, following these first three starters. It seemed like everything that could go wrong last year for Lohse did, so if he can come out tonight, throw a quality start, and not get injured or have some sort of flukiness happen to him, perhaps we can more reasonably expect something closer to 2008 than 2009 from him.

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	IBB	GDP
Jody Gerut	35	33	10	2	0	1	4	2	4	.303	.343	.455	.797	1	1
Craig Counsell	23	22	10	1	1	1	2	1	6	.455	.478	.727	1.206	0	0
Prince Fielder	18	15	4	0	0	0	1	3	1	.267	.389	.267	.656	0	0
Jim Edmonds	16	14	3	0	0	0	2	2	2	.214	.313	.214	.527	0	0
Rickie Weeks	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	.267	.313	.333	.646	0	0
Ryan Braun	15	15	6	2	0	1	5	0	3	.400	.400	.733	1.133	0	0
Corey Hart	9	9	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	.111	.111	.111	.222	0	0
Alcides Escobar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Casey McGehee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Gregg Zaun	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	.333	.500	.333	.833	0	0
Manny Parra	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0
Doug Davis	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Carlos Villanueva	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Randy Wolf	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Total	152	142	40	7	1	3	18	10	23	.282	.329	.408	.737	1	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/9/2010.

It might be difficult to get a solid start from Lohse tonight, though. As you can see, the Brewers have been able to hit him pretty well. Old friend Jim Edmonds might not be in the lineup, but players like Counsell and Gerut may pick him to death. He's really going to have to be on top of his game if these historical numbers are any indication.

Dave Bush goes for the Brewers. Here are his numbers against the current Redbird squad:

	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	IBB	HBP	GDP
Felipe Lopez	23	22	4	1	1	2	1	9	.182	.217	.364	.581	0	0	0	0
Albert Pujols	19	17	6	2	0	5	2	1	.353	.421	.471	.892	0	0	0	1
Yadier Molina	18	16	5	0	3	5	1	0	.313	.389	.875	1.264	0	0	1	1
Skip Schumaker	16	15	6	0	0	3	1	3	.400	.438	.400	.838	0	0	0	0
Ryan Ludwick	14	12	4	0	0	2	2	2	.333	.429	.333	.762	0	0	0	0
Matt Holliday	12	11	3	1	0	1	0	2	.273	.333	.364	.697	0	0	1	0
Jason LaRue	12	10	3	1	0	0	2	0	.300	.417	.400	.817	0	2	0	0
Brendan Ryan	8	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	.500	.625	.667	1.292	0	0	2	0
Adam Wainwright	7	7	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Chris Carpenter	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.250	.000	.250	1	0	1	0
Colby Rasmus	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0
Total	137	122	35	6	4	18	9	22	.287	.360	.434	.795	1	2	5	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/9/2010.

The Cardinals have hit Bush pretty hard in the past as well. Yadier Molina has his only two-homer game against the guy (back in '07), so you know he'd be in the lineup tonight even if he hadn't just had the day off.

The odds of another pitching duel tonight are pretty slim. Hopefully the Cardinals' relentless attack from the first two games makes the trip to Milwaukee also.

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A Wrap And A Look Forward

Posted on October 7, 2009 at 6:48 AM

It's been a busy week for me, with having to drive a hour and a half to an audit every morning. (Usual commute to the office--8 minutes.) So I've not had the chance to finish up the regular season and look at tonight's start of the NLDS. Let me see if I can't do that extremely quickly.

Saturday: 5-4 Loss

Hero: Brendan Ryan. Three for three, scored twice, drove in run. Did have a baserunning glitch, but all in all, did as much as possible to bring home a win for the Cards.

Goat: Rick Ankiel. No hits in four at-bats, struck out three times, left five men on.

Notes: Albert Pujols almost got the goat, also going 0-4 and left four men on. Plus his normal aggressive defense failed the Cards in the decisive inning, as he was too far off the bag and wasn't able to get there before Kyle Lohse, causing neither of them to catch Julio Lugo's throw. A catch ends the inning with the Cards on top. Instead, Milwaukee took the lead they wouldn't relinquish.

Sunday: 9-7 Loss (10)

Hero: David Freese. Not only did he go two for three and drive in three runs after coming into the game, but he took on the challenge of making his professional catching debut when the Cards, who have three catchers on the roster, ran out of backstops.

Goat: Todd Wellemeyer. The home run to Prince Fielder that put the Brewers ahead in the ninth was bad enough, but to allow two more runs in the 10th? There's only so many comebacks a team has in them.

Notes: If nothing else, it was good to see this team battle back. They kept getting down, but they never gave up. Even in the ninth against Trevor Hoffman, they had good at bats, drawing walks and getting the tying run across.

The Cards slumped badly down the stretch, going 2-7 in their last nine, with the only wins being the clincher game pitched by Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter's offensive explosion game in Cincinnati. While I don't think that stretch runs are necessarily indicative of post-season performance (unless you've had to win your way in), it's not the most comfortable feeling in the world to limp in like that. Then again, that's about what the '06 team did, so who knows.

The slate is fresh today, though, for the opener of the NLDS. If nothing else, the fact that the Dodgers didn't exactly tear it up the last couple of weeks should help Cardinal fans feel a little better.

There are a lot of keys for the Cardinals in this series, but here's what I think the biggest is: finding the ability to hit lefties. The Dodgers will throw out two in the first two games, against St. Louis's biggest weapons in Carpenter and Wainwright. If you've read my interview with Feeling Dodger Blue, you know that the bullpen is actually one of LA's biggest strengths. The Cards can't afford to get into a battle of the bullpens. That's a good way to wind up losing one of the Big Two's starts, games that the Cards are going to have to win to have a chance for the trophy.

So the Cardinals have to find a way to score some runs earlier in the ballgame behind the two aces. If they can get a 3-0, 4-0 lead for them, odds are they'll take the games and be in great shape for the series. If it gets to 0-0, 1-1 in the seventh, when Tony LaRussa's having to pinch-hit and get creative, there's a good chance the Dodger bullpen shuts them down and they come back to St. Louis behind the eight ball.

It's a late game tonight, Carpenter vs. Randy Wolf. Good luck to the Redbirds!

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Without Wain, It Pours

Posted on October 3, 2009 at 9:46 AM

The disappointment last night was tangible in Cardinal Nation. If you weren't at the ballpark, just looking through Twitter would have clued you in on that.

It wasn't so much the loss. With the division clinched and the likelihood of being anything more than the third-best record among division leaders, the loss didn't really effect much. The way the game was lost, though, and what it meant to Adam Wainwright, was much more of a gut-wrenching end.

We all know that wins have been overrated for a long time. Heck, last night was the perfect example of that as Braden Looper gets a mark in the win column even though he left trailing 6-1. In what rational world does he deserve a win? Yet that's the way baseball goes.

So wins are overrated. We know that. I'm not sure that even a 20th win would have gotten Wainwright a Cy Young, though it very well might have. (With the writers, I expect that 20 might have been a clincher, especially when Tim Lincecum only has 15. Among the voters of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I'm guessing deeper digging will be done.) It's not rational, really, to care more about that game than any of the other bullpen collapses we've seen this season.

Emotion is rarely logical, though, To have a 20th win sitting there for Wainwright, who has done so much for this team this year, and then to see it taken away with a meltdown of epic proportions is really tough to take, especially when it was his last chance to get one. Maybe when my son is my age, things will have advanced to where we'll be more interested in the fact that someone has 21 support neutral wins (HT Fungoes), but right now the traditional marks are still what fire the public imagination and get us worked up.

Wainwright did his part, at least, limiting the Brewers to one run over six and getting into the offense by legging out a triple and scoring on a Colby Rasmus single. (Seriously, the pitchers seem to be doing their best to show up the hitters lately!) With the use of Chris Carpenter still fresh in memory, I expected Wainwright to be pulled then, especially with his spot in the lineup coming up.

He batted, though, and all I could figure is that LaRussa wanted to make sure he got the standing ovation as he walked off the mound, so he'd send him out there and pull him off after a few warmup tosses. Then, as he started the inning, I figured he'd get pulled as soon as a batter reached. To me, Wainwright really seemed tired, stepping off and taking deep breaths, like he was digging deep.

So instead of a reliever coming into a fresh inning, Kyle McClellan gets summoned with two on and nobody out. And for all the grief McClellan is going to get today, for all he's beating himself up about things, he almost had a decent outing. He got two strikes on Jason Kendall, but Kendall's veteran restraint served him well. He had Kendall flinching on every pitch, but Kendall was always able to hold the bat back far enough. If he'd gotten one in the strike zone, it'd have been better, but if Kendall goes for one of them and strike out, then Gamel afterwards Ks, maybe the results are better.

That said, McClellan imploded big time after the walk to Kendall and the strikeout of Gamel. It's one thing to let a run score, it's even understandable that you let both of Wainwright's runs score. To allow the Brewers to tie the game when they are down 5? That's just wrong. No matter how you slice it.

A lot of the blame is also headed Tony LaRussa's way, and there's definitely an argument there. There were a lot of questionable decisions last night, especially to leave Yadier Molina in there where he was clearly not his best.

Six runs was nice for the Cards as well, but noticeably they stopped hitting after the fourth. Albert Pujols had three hits, getting that average up to .331, but also made an error as the team completed the collapse in the eighth. All in all, it was a great first half of the game, but other than that, not one you want to talk about. Which is why I've rambled on so long on a Saturday morning, I guess. Maybe you do want to talk about it, for closure purposes.

The Cards look to get that taste out of their mouths with an early start today against the Brewers. Kyle Lohse goes for the Cards, Carlos Villanueva for the Brewers. Lohse has his last chance to impress for the postseason. Lohse has one start against the Brewers this year and didn't fare well, though he did get an outing out of the bullpen against them that went much better. The Brewers haven't been fooled by him too much in the past, so a strong outing might mean more than it normally would.

Villanueva has gone back and forth from being a starter to a reliever, with limited success in either role. He's appeared in six games against the Redbirds this year and done well (1-1, 2.25 ERA) but all those games were out of the pen. He has a 6.38 ERA as a starter this year, so we'll see if the Cards can get to him after seeing him more than once. Pujols has two home runs off of him in his career and Milwaukee was the last team he went deep on, so hopefully we can see him launch one today. I can't find out if it's today or tomorrow that's Buddy Walk, but whenever that is, you know one ball is getting lost.

This is probably my last entry for the regular season, a season that's been much more than most of us expected. We'll have time to reflect later, but thanks, Cardinals, for some great memories.

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A Grand Day For Cardinal Fans

Posted on October 2, 2009 at 8:50 AM

A nice, crisp day in Cincinnati, when you are spending it at the ballpark, can make a lot of people happy. Well, maybe not a lot, since the crowd was pretty sparse. It definitely did wonders for Cardinal Nation, though.

Chris Carpenter. What can you say about that outing? This is a guy that earlier in the year strained his oblique hitting. A guy with 0 career home runs and six RBI before yesterday. Personally, I've never thought he looked much like a hitter. Sure, he had that double against the Cubs recently, but that's because Bobby Scales looked like he was on skates.

So watching the video highlights, it was interesting to see Carpenter in almost a McGwire-sque stance taking a good full swing at Kip Wells' first pitch. I'm sure it helped that they were in Cincy, where the ball carries and the park's not that big, but that did go a couple of rows back. Just shows that anyone can run into it, I guess.

The double later was impressive as well, going the other way and lining it into the corner, driving in two more. To get both of those hits in the same day, especially in five innings, has to be high on the list of Things That You'd Think Never Happen, right along with Rush Limbaugh hosting a tribute to Barack Obama and Rick Ankiel returning to the pitcher's mound.

Also, it's probably the first time ever that Carp's offensive exploits overshadowed his pitching performance. He was vintage Carpenter, even though he did need 90 pitches to get through five innings. You have to figure he could afford to be creative with pitches with such a big lead, and it was good to see Tony LaRussa not extend him in a meaningless game that was in the bag. Still, six strikeouts and no runs in five innings is a pretty good day at the office.

It was the bottom of the lineup doing the damage yesterday. The first four hitters went three for ten, which isn't bad, but the last five (including Carpenter) were nine for 19 with 10 of the 13 runs scored. Good day for Rick Ankiel especially, who had two hits and scored three runs, even drawing a walk. It seems like that meeting earlier in the week is paying some dividends for those involved.

Tough to find a Goat in a 13-0 game. Obviously, most everyone contributed, but it comes down to Albert Pujols, who drew two walks, and Colby Rasmus, who had a hit and a run but struck out twice. Rasmus gets the nod mainly because AP didn't play the whole game and was even a late addition to the lineup due to flu-like symptoms that he promptly told to go away and so was better. Pujols can do that, you know. As someone said on the Fox Sports Midwest live blog, the umpire that was hit with the ball and left the game would be fine, because Pujols came over and touched him!

If it wasn't for the fact that the Buddy Walk was this weekend, I'd write off Albert getting to 50 homers this year. He's been stuck at 47 since September 9 and only has three games left. But his annual Buddy Walk, when the Down's Syndrome kids are at the park, always brings out the best in him. I still don't think he'll hit 50, but his final won't be 47 either.

Troy Glaus also had a good game yesterday, giving him hope that he'll make the postseason roster. I expect to see LaRussa start Glaus at third at least one of the last three games, and if he's solid then as well, he very well may be playing in October. I wouldn't have thought it just a few days ago and I'm still not completely sold on it happening, but the odds are better now. If he's right, he'll really help the bench in the playoffs. Of course, if he goes, I don't think David Freese gets a shot. That'll be something interesting to watch this weekend.

The Reds didn't care much for the allegations being tossed around by the Cardinals in regard to unrubbed baseballs and pine tar. Just something to keep in mind since the 2010 season starts in Cincinnati.

The Cards get to continue their string of lasts for the regular season as they tee up the last series of the season. Adam Wainwright gets one last chance to win #20 against the Brewers. He's done OK against them in the past, though Ryan Braun has touched him for two homers. Wainwright has dominated Milwaukee this year, though, posting a minuscule 0.59 ERA and a 3-1 record in four starts. If the offense shows up at all, Waino should get to the 20-win mark, which might be enough for him to win the Cy Young.

Former Card Braden Looper heads to the rubber tonight for his final start. Looper has been middling against the Cards this year, posting a 3.75 ERA in his 12 innings against the club. Historically, though, he's been pretty tough on the Redbird hitters. If that keeps up again tonight, some of the euphoria from yesterday's offensive outburst is going to quickly drain off.

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Cardinals Hit, Pitch, Win

Posted on September 10, 2009 at 8:14 AM

Exactly how wonderful of a position for Cardinal fans was yesterday? The team already has won the first two games of the series and you've got Adam Wainwright on the hill. So things are looking pretty good.

And then Albert Pujols shows up and makes them even better.

Two big home runs, including one that was a personal milestone for El Hombre, kept his MVP candidacy along. If Tim Lincecum is out for any period of time, I think we'll get a repeat of 2005 with AP and Chris Carpenter winning the big awards. Hopefully the postseason will go better than '05 did, though.

While there's been a lot of speculation about the grin shared between Julio Lugo and Pujols after his first clout, I'd like to think either AP called it or it was relief that he finally got on the home run board against Jeff Suppan. Suppan was the pitcher he'd had the most ABs against without going deep. That title now goes to Wandy Rodriguez, who has faced Pujols 34 times (28 official ABs) and not let him leave the yard. The Cards have a three game set in Houston in a couple of weeks--maybe he can mark another off the list as well. (After Wandy, there's a few retired guys before Brandon Webb at 23 AB/26 PA.)

You can't overlook Wainwright's day, though. He proved that the hiccup in Pittsburgh was just that, throwing seven more scoreless innings. If he'd just been a little more judicious in how many pitches he'd thrown, the game had been closer, or the lead wasn't 11.5, he might have gone for his first shutout. The rate he's going, though, he'll get one and it won't be that long.

Kudos also go to Colby Rasmus. After Tuesday's game where he pinch-hit, it was thought that he'd sit out yesterday's affair. Instead, he gets two hits, including a triple, drives in a run and scores two. Must have heard me say something about JD Drew and decided to prove he wasn't the next iteration of him.

Rough day, however, for Skip Schumaker, who went 0-5 in the leadoff slot. It happens, of course, but you hate seeing the leadoff guy not getting on base.

Matt Holliday tripped over first base (that so sounds like something I would do) and left the game early yesterday, but all reports seem to indicate he's fine and should be in the starting lineup Friday. I'm sure somebody will harken back to this if he slumps the next few days, but it really does sound like it's nothing terribly serious.

Mark DeRosa is definitely having surgery after the season is over. I thought that was already a given, but apparently that was just an option until recently, when it became clear it was the only option. That should give the Cards an edge in resigning him, as he may not be willing to take his chances on the open market coming off surgery. Hopefully that also means the Cardinals can get a little bit of a discount on bringing him back to hedge against the possibility that the surgery takes longer to heal from than expected, a common occurance among Cardinal players.

I was listening to a little bit of Mike and Mike this morning when they had Tim Kurkjian on. They were talking about the Cardinals and how they are "the team to beat", at least in the National League. One part of me likes hearing that, likes seeing the Cardinals get some recognition and getting an opinion validated by those that aren't as close to the situation (and, in theory, less positively biased).

Another part of me, though, was wary. How often is "the team to beat" beaten in the playoffs? Were the Phillies the team to beat last year? The Cards in '06? The White Sox in '05 or the Red Sox in '04? Seems like those dominant teams can get through the first round, but might have trouble later on. The '04 and '05 Cardinal squads probably were considered the team to beat, though I still think having Carp in the '04 playoffs would have kept the Curse going a while. Still, they didn't win, so seeing that tag on St. Louis causes a little anxiety.

Joe Strauss is having his weekly chat today, so you might look over there for some updates on Holliday and other facets of the Cardinal team.

The magic number is doubly serious. It's another one of those off-days, so we'll take a look at the Atlanta series tomorrow.

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Enjoy The Holliday

Posted on September 9, 2009 at 9:09 AM

Some of us weren't too thrilled when John Mozeliak pulled the trigger and acquired Matt Holliday from the A's. While the future cost is still to be determined, it's safe to say the present reality makes that deal look like a steal.

When you are down by one and Trevor Hoffman is pitching, you don't necessarily expect big things. After all, he shut down the Cardinals last week in the same type of situation. However, just as Milwaukee may have gotten a little edge from seeing John Smoltz in close proximity, so too did St. Louis get a little extra from so recently seeing Hoffman.

For example, last week Hoffman was able to strike out Albert Pujols, who still hasn't gotten a hit off of him, with the tying run on at first. Last night, Pujols was disciplined enough to take the walk, which allowed Holliday to win the game instead of just tie it up.

And after a month of the two sluggers not homering in the same game, they've now done it three times in about a week. What do you do if you are a pitcher? Besides duck and hide?

So as it stands right now, Holliday in Cardinal red is hitting .381 with 12 HR, 41 RBI and an OPS of 1.143 in 33 games. How nuts is that? I tell you one thing, if Holliday does go somewhere else this offseason, it's going to be a National League team. I don't necessarily subscribe to the widespread theory that the AL is the toughest thing ever and the NL is a little second-rate backwoods league in comparison, but obviously Holliday either didn't agree with the AL or didn't agree with Oakland in particular, and if I were him I don't think I'd risk finding out which it was.

Holliday kept the unique streak of not losing ground in the division race going, as it's up to 32 days or so. If the race was any closer, you'd think that'd be darn frustrating to Cub fans. When you are down by 11.5, it probably doesn't matter as much.

Holliday also helped ease the night of our Goat, Yadier Molina. The double play he hit into back in the sixth looked really costly late, though it did get one run in. I liked that he was able to execute the hit and run in the eighth, though, after not being able to get the bunt down.

Early in the game, it looked like the Cardinal magic had run out for Smoltz. Not so much the two-run blast by Prince Fielder, because Fielder does that. However, with Ryan Braun almost hitting one before that shot, settling for a double, and then the Brewers tacking on another one in the second and having two runners on with no outs, you started to wonder if the wheels were coming off.

So it's a credit to Smoltz that not only did he strand those runners, but he didn't allow any more runs in his five innings of work. I think he likely would have gone into the sixth, but with two on and his slot in the lineup coming up, Tony LaRussa had to pinch hit for him and see if they couldn't cash in.

Interesting to see Kyle Lohse come in for an inning. He looked pretty sharp and I would expect that he's still in line for the Saturday game, treating this as his between-starts throwing session. I'm anxious to see how he does against the Braves, because if he can finally get back to something approximating last year, the Cardinals have five talented starters for the postseason, which is a great problem to have.

Colby Rasmus seems to be injured again. I wondered that on Twitter yesterday when the lineup came out and he wasn't in it for the second day in a row. With his myriad of injuries and his lack of expressed enthusiasm, I could easily see Rasmus getting the "JD Drew" reputation around Cardinal Nation. I hope that won't be the case, though. He had a very good at-bat last night pinch-hitting, I thought, even though he struck out. I was wondering if TLR sent him up there as bait to get the lefty into the game, then do a switch. That didn't happen, though, and Rasmus worked the count full and had good strokes down both lines that went foul before chasing an outside fastball.

Sounds like the Cards are still getting that headstart on their after-season checklist, starting to talk to Mark DeRosa about returning. Not only would it be good to get him back, of course, but as discussed when the Ryan Franklin/Trever Miller extensions were announced, anything that gets the budget more firm for the next few years will only help in getting an offer to Holliday and an extension offer to Pujols.

Afternoon baseball today, which is good in that there's something to follow at work, bad because there's no game on tonight or tomorrow, so we have to go over 48 hours without the Cards playing. Never a good thing. You can follow today's game over at FSMW's live blog, with some of the best comments and questions making it to the broadcast.

Adam Wainwright goes for the Cardinals, looking to shake off that six-run inning against Pittsburgh last time out. This may be the team to do it to, because he's had the Brew Crew's number during 2009. He's faced Milwaukee three times this year and has a 2-1 record and a 0.77 ERA to show for it. Historically, they've not done much against him either. Really, the only sliver of hope for the Brewers that an away day game would seem to be the worst possible combination for the Wagonmaker. You take what you can get.

Of course, the Brewers send out the former Redbird Jeff Suppan, who has been known to baffle Cardinal hitters as well. The Cardinals were finally able to get to him in his last time against them and he has a ERA close to 5.00 against the club this year. Historically, though, he's been pretty tough on Cardinal hitters and I believe he's the pitcher that Pujols has the most at-bats against without a home run.

To get you through a baseball-less evening, tune in to the UCB Radio Hour. The guys from Pitchers Hit Eighth are hosting tonight and will likely marvel over Chris Carpenter, look ahead to the postseason, talk about today's game, and anything else that may come to mind. Callers welcome! 646-929-1758 from 9:30 to 10:30 pm Central.

Over at MLB.com, they are celebrating 9/9/09 by letting you vote for the top offensive season at each position. Go over and check it out.

Ironically, I'm finishing this up right about 9:09. Enjoy "baseball day" as the marketing folks at MLB are terming it!

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