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Happily Ever After

Posted on October 30, 2011 at 1:37 AM
Once upon a time, there was a baseball team.

This baseball team wasn't the richest team, though it wasn't poor by any means.  It wasn't the strongest team and it wasn't by any means the fastest team.  It wasn't even considered the best team within its region, much less in all the land.

This team had many players that made up its merry band.  It had the Warrior, who could battle teams with amazing firepower and also could undermine them with guts and guile, depending on the situation.  It had the Young Gun, a man who started building his legend early and then continued to develop it.

There was the Legend, one known far and wide as the most intimidating, the most amazing, the most everything of players.  Aiding the Legend was the Hired Hand, imported indirectly from the mountain tribes to help the Legend in his times of trial.  To go along with these two was the Rival, a man that had started out as a fierce member of an opposing tribe, only to become a trusted member of this team.

There were others, of course.  The Local, the Phenom, the Lefty, the Poet, the Gunslinger, the Finisher.  All sorts of names and characters made up this unique team.

Every year, the Lords of Baseball held a contest in the fall of the year, when the leaves were changing and the north winds began to blow.  This contest was to see just which team would be able to hold the title of Best Team and feast on the adoration of those that followed these brave and intrepid men.  Teams came from far and wide, down long and winding roads, to get to the tournament, well knowing that only eight of them would be allowed inside the gates once they arrived at their destination.


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We WON'T See You Tomorrow Night

Posted on October 17, 2011 at 6:37 AM
The St. Louis Cardinals are the National League Champions.

What else is there to say?  I mean, write this script in Hollywood and while it'd make a fun movie, with tortoises and catch phrases and squirrels and the link, it's not going to be one of those believable outcomes.  I mean, down 10.5 in late August and go on to the World Series?  A team that digs their hole by blown saves and gets out of it with a dominant bullpen?  Are ya kiddin' me?

And yet, and yet.....

David Freese, the NLCS MVP by basically destroying any baseball that came toward him, may have said it best about last night's game.  He said he'd never been in a 12-6 game that felt like 1-0.  Until the bullpen really asserted itself in the latter innings, no lead felt that safe.  Another iffy job by the starting pitching, this time Edwin Jackson giving up four runs on three homers in two innings, meant the bullpen had to step up and, yet again, they did.  Fernando Salas was running on fumes by the end of his outing, but he still had enough for a key strikeout.  Octavio Dotel continued his dominance of Ryan Braun.  And, even with a comfortable lead, Jason Motte was out there ending the game, getting the honor of striking out Mark Kotsay to send the Cardinals to that Classic in the fall.

It's mindboggling, really.  There won't be many Cardinal fans that aren't sleep-deprived tonight, staying up watching highlights and analysis well into the wee hours of the morning.  This team--and that's the best word for them right now, team--has done the impossible and that makes them mighty.

If you believe in the intangibles, if you believe in teams of destiny, then I think you believe in this team.  There's no doubt that they have come together to play inspired ball, that they do whatever it takes to win.  And there's no doubt they have genuine care and concern for each other as well.  Waiting to start champagne showers until everyone is there.  Spending their immediate moments after winning chanting "Happy flight!  Happy flight!"

We have time to worry about the Texas Rangers, a very solid team with a hunger to do better than last year's loss in the Series.  We have time to wonder if this run is enough to keep Albert Pujols, who is going to his third World Series.  (And let me say, it was an extremely classy act for Pujols to call time and let Prince Fielder get to soak up his ovation in what easily could be--probably was--his last at bat as a Brewer.  Those that don't care for the man have to give him that much.)  We have time to see if Kyle McClellan stays on the World Series roster, given his lack of use in a series that saw so many calls to the bullpen.  We can debate how much chemistry--that element so prized in the offseason--has meant to this club. We can do all of that.  Tomorrow.

Right now, it's time to bask, it's time to revel, it's time to enjoy the moment.  The work will be there.  The questions will be there.  This moment won't be.

To all my Cardinal friends, happy flight!

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Fly The Happy Skies

Posted on October 15, 2011 at 10:54 AM
The St. Louis Cardinals are one win away from the World Series.

Roll that around on your tongue a little bit.  Ponder that one over a meal.  Discuss it with your closest friends, perfect strangers, or your household pet, whichever might be closest.  It's not something that you can really grasp until you've talked about it somehow with someone.  One game in Milwaukee and they get the special World Series bunting out for Busch Stadium.  (No, I don't know if they have special World Series bunting.  But they should.  Put some squirrels on it or something.)

I haven't been doing Heroes and Goats for the postseason, but if I were for last night, there's no doubt that Octavio Dotel would get it, since I only award it to players and Dotel's strikeout of Ryan Braun was the turning point of the whole game.  However, the real Hero had to be Tony La Russa.

Playoff Tony La Russa, back-against-the-wall TLR, is a lot different than our standard portrait of him as a manager.  In season, Tony might do his best to get some stats for a pitcher that's earned it.  Playoff Tony?  Whatever wins the game, in whatever combination.  If that means yanking Jaime Garcia before he gets qualified for the win, so be it.

In-season La Russa loves his bullpen, there's no doubt.  I mean, he really created the modern bullpen of role guys, eighth-inning guys, LOOGYs, etc.  Still, he knows that you can't go to them too early during a 162 game grind.  Playoff Tony?  Dude, every game is a bullpen game.  Tony does that occasionally in the regular season when there's too many games in not enough days and the rotation needs a breather.  He starts a reliever and then uses a parade of them through the game.  That's basically been his philosophy throughout the playoffs, just that that initial "reliever" is actually a starter.

The knock on Tony is that he doesn't care for the young guns, preferring veterans to do the work.  Yet, as he did in 2006, Tony's riding the young bullpen arms for this run.  Obviously Dotel isn't one of them, but he's still an effective reliever and apparently knows just how to pitch to Ryan Braun.  I was a bit surprised that TLR went to Marc Rzepczynski last night instead of Arthur Rhodes against Prince Fielder late in the game, but I was fine with it.  In fact, the one guy that hasn't been seen much in this series is Kyle McClellan, whom you would normally expect to be playing a prime role.

Plus regular season Tony can be viewed as a bit of a grouch.  Playoff Tony?  He's talking about squirrels and tortoises, for heaven's sake! 

You'll notice also that the Cards won that game without a home run.  Yadier Molina's drive in the third almost went out, but stayed in for a double, which turned out to be irrelevant when he and Lance Berkman scored on the error by Jerry Hairston Jr.  Other than that, it was keeping the pressure on, getting key hits, putting runners on base.  Milwaukee helped out, it's true, by making four errors, but the Cards had to capitalize and they did.

Now that the Cardinals are having a happy flight to Milwaukee and Game 6 on Saturday, let's take a little look at the narrative that is forming.  The first part is that Milwaukee is such a tough home team, that they have a remarkable winning percentage at home.  That's very true: Milwaukee was 57-24 in Miller Park this year, the best record in baseball by five game.  There's no doubt that, whatever mojo they have at home, it's some powerful stuff.

Yet, look at the 24 losses.  Stack them up and run down them and you know what you'll see?    St. Louis's name on there more than anyone else.  The Cards beat them six times in Milwaukee in twelve tries.  They swept them in Milwaukee late in the year.

Look at Milwaukee's postseason run.  They are 3-1 in Miller Park, which is a very nice rate.  However, what's that one?  Oh, right, the Cardinals.  Beating Shaun Marcum, who is scheduled to start on Saturday night.  (I honestly was surprised they used Chris Narveson in Game 5.  I expected them to use him as a starter if Game 6 was an elimination game for them.)  The home field thing may be a bit overrated when it comes to these two teams.

The second thing is that the Cardinals haven't won a Game 6 on the road in the postseason since 1982.  Which is all of four games, and the first game of that stretch was the Denkinger game, which they should have won.  The Cards lost Game 6 to the Mets in the 2006 NLCS, and we know how that turned out.  They lost Game 6 in 1987 to the Twins and they lost Game 6 to Atlanta in the 1996 NLCS, both series which they went on to lose.

However, this Cardinal team still has its ace going for Game 7, if necessary, but they are facing a pitcher that really has struggled lately in Game 6.  Marcum had a 6.65 ERA in his last four regular season starts (Philadelphia, Colorado, Chicago and Pittsburgh) and the only one that was on the road was Chicago, which happened to be the best one in the bunch.  He obviously has had a rough season, getting torched in Arizona and Milwaukee alike.  Unless he has a resurgence like Randy Wolf did in Game 4 (which is completely believable, unless he has some physical problem that we don't know about), the Brewers are going to have to win this game by outslugging the Cards.

Edwin Jackson will be back on the mound for the Redbirds.  Jackson pitched fairly well in Game 2, giving up just two runs, but La Russa yanked him in the fifth with the Cards up 7-2 but the Brewers threatening with two on and one out with Fielder coming up.  With Jackson's work for the Redbirds in the regular season, coupled with Marcum's struggles, the pitching matchup definitely goes to St. Louis for Game 6.

Winning that one would be big, because as we talked about yesterday, it doesn't take much for things to shift.  Do you really want to go into another Game 7 on the road?  Sure, Chris Carpenter would be on the mound, but so would Yovani Gallardo, who shut the Cards down after the first inning in Game 3.  Do you want the series to come down to one errant pitch, perhaps?  I don't.  I'm not that hardcore.  Let's just have the Cards win Game 6 and get ready to host their 18th World Series, what do you say?

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Tipping Point?

Posted on October 14, 2011 at 9:58 AM
You know, the thing about baseball is it is amazing how quickly things change.  Batter ahead 3-0?  How often does it then work to 3-2 with a strikeout?  Score four in the first?  Before you know it the other team is right there with you.  Up 2-1 in a series, things are pretty good, life is going our way.  2-2 and you start to see just how tenuous these leads and good feelings can be.

I'm always concerned when the narrative starts building.  It seems like once everyone starts paying attention to an event, it disappears.  Guy has a quiet 20 game hitting streak?  Let the nation find out and it won't usually make it to 25.  This team has beaten that team 10 straight times?  Let that be part of the game story and the streak will often be snapped.

Yesterday's narrative seemed to be how bad Randy Wolf had been pitching and how now the Cardinals, after chasing all year, were in the driver's seat.  All day long, and if you read my Twitter feed you can see that, I felt like Admiral Ackbar was sitting on my shoulder speaking his famous phrase.

For whatever reason, whether it was just that Wolf has the Cardinals number (and as we noted yesterday, he'd had intermittent success against them this year) or if it was just an off night for the batters, the team that had been putting together rally after rally couldn't do much last night.  You kinda had that feeling when the first inning went by so quickly.  After talking about how much Milwaukee was going to stay away from Albert Pujols, he struck out in the first inning and went 1 for 4 on the night.

Matt Holliday and Allen Craig provided all the offense, Holliday on a ball that he seemed to think was a popup but carried into the stands.  After his shot, the Cards had two on with one out and a chance to start really putting the Brewers away, but they came up with nothing.  Another chance after Craig's homer, but nothing happened.  And once you give a pitcher a chance to get a rhythm, it's not going to go well for you.

It's interesting that so often this postseason, the Cards have won without hitting a home run.  They hit some in Game 2, of course, but they tacked on a lot of runs around it.  Didn't get any in Game 3 and won.  Didn't get any in the wins against Philadelphia, even when they came back against Cliff Lee.  This offense is best when they are going first to third, getting doubles, building excitement and momentum.  Not that the home runs are bad, mind you--I'll take them all day long.  It just seems like they've not been the best of omens for this team.

As for Kyle Lohse, he admitted he was rusty.  Which is a tough situation, because it seemed like he pitched better on longer rest down the stretch, so you have to rest him some but not too much?  Hard to get a bead on that.  Still, I think it was the right call.  I think I'd rather have Edwin Jackson go twice in this series than Lohse, even on the run he's been on.  That might be biased by last night's outing, I'm not sure.  It's not like Jackson went deep into the game either.

Which is the other thing.  So far the bullpen has thrown more innings than the starters.  Can they keep that up?  True, only Fernando Salas has pitched both of the last two nights, as it seems Tony La Russa has two shifts out there.  In theory, all the guys from Game 3 (save Salas) should be fresh and ready to go tonight, then everyone good for Game 6 and, if necessary, Game 7.  So as long as the starter doesn't get bombed in the first or second, the pitching should be fine.

The Cardinals have won 15 straight games when they've left town afterwards, so there's the Happy Flight Theorem at work tonight.  Of course, now that's built into the narrative.  We didn't know really how many Happy Flights there had been until after the last one.  That's going to gnaw at me some today, I think.

Looking at the matchups, though, I think the Cards will be OK.  Jaime Garcia gets his second start, but it's at home, which is a boost for him, and it's unlikely TLR will risk him in dangerous situations in the middle of the game like he did in Milwaukee.  Garcia might not go 5 tonight (I hope he does), but I don't think he gives up a lot of runs either.

Zack Greinke goes for the Brewers.  The Cards got to him for a lot of runs in Miller Park and he's been much better at home than on the road this year.  In the regular season, he posted a 3.15 ERA against the Redbirds and he only gave up two runs in seven innings the last time he pitched at Busch.  Hopefully he'll pitch more like he did in Game 1 and the bats will be able to come around.  

It really is a must-win for both teams, so it should be an intense game.  I told myself I wasn't going to get worked up about this postseason.  This was a team that seemed to be destined for a quiet ending, so anything in October was gravy.  That lasted until possibly Game 4 of the NLDS.  After that, with everything seemingly possible for this team, it's become much more nerve wracking.  I've already got that nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach and game time is still hours away.

It's best of three right now for two teams that are tied 11-11 in the season series.  Cards win today, they just need to either beat Shaun Marcum (or, I'm guessing if the Brewers are looking at elimination, Chris Narveson) or win a Chris Carpenter Game 7.  If they lose, they've got to do it both in a spot where the Brewers have only lost two in a row twice this year, though once was to the Cardinals.  It'd be a tough road for whichever team loses tonight.  Let's make sure it's them.

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Halfway Home

Posted on October 13, 2011 at 6:34 AM
If you are Chris Carpenter, at least you know just exactly what the offense is going to give you before you get too far into the game.

For the second consecutive Carpenter start, the Cards scored all of their runs in the first inning, jumping on Yovani Gallardo for four runs before the first frame was over.  After that, though, the bats went quiet as Gallardo figure out how to get the ground balls he wasn't getting in the first and the bullpen of the Brewers held the line.

Carpenter wasn't the Carpenter we saw versus Roy Halladay, but I don't think many of us expected that level of excellence again.  Carp was able to limit the damage and bend but not break, but he also was gone after the fifth inning.  Hopefully he'll be sharper next time out, whether that is Game 7 of this series or Game 1 of the World Series.

However, you may have heard that the Cardinals have this bullpen.  Granted, what you might have heard if you aren't a regular follower of the Cards is that the bullpen is leaky, unpredictable, and given to explosions.  That's not exactly true of the current makeup of the squad.

Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski and Jason Motte covered the four innings after Carpenter left.  All of them had one thing in common--they didn't allow a baserunner.  None.  Nothing.  Nada.  Zero.  Cubs World Series titles since 1908.  Cubs World Series wins since 1945.

After Prince Fielder was intentionally walked by Carpenter in the fifth, 13 men came to the plate and 13 men went back to the dugout.  Flyouts, groundouts, strikeouts, there were different methods of retiring them, but the results were all the same.  On this night, the bullpen was untouchable.

That doesn't mean that there weren't causes for concern with the squad, just that they didn't come trotting out of center field when Tony La Russa made the sign.  Matt Holliday looked pretty rough on his last at-bats.  Holliday walked during the big first inning uprising, but otherwise went 0-3 with two strikeouts, both of which ended innings: in the fourth when Albert Pujols was on second and in the sixth when Allen Craig and Pujols were on first and third.  Getting extra runs there would have been a big deal, but Holliday not only was unable to come through, but did not look good in the entire at-bat.

Double plays, which had been recently fairly quiet for the Redbirds, reared their head again last night.  Yadier Molina rapped into one for the first two outs of the game (though that did drive in Pujols for the third run), Jon Jay hit into one after Carpenter had singled and Rafael Furcal had walked in the fourth, and David Freese grounded into one to end the seventh.  I don't like seeing that becoming a talking point again and hopefully the Cards will be able to avoid them in the next few games.

Of course, some of that credit has to go to Gallardo.  After the first inning, he settled in and started getting many more ground ball outs instead of balls that were being hit hard into the outfield.  If he had pitched the first inning that way, this could have been a much different outcome.

No matter how they got there, though, the Cards are now up 2-1 in the series and have a chance tonight to really put themselves in the driver's seat.  Kyle Lohse has had a lot of time off since Game 1 of the NLDS, and he seemed to pitch better down the stretch when he had an extra day or so.  Lohse pitched well to begin with against Philadelphia, but obviously made a key mistake on a pitch up to Ryan Howard.  Before that game, though, you have to go back to August 23rd--notably, right before this surge started--to find a game where Lohse gave up more than three runs.  In that stretch was a six-inning scoreless outing against the Brewers in Busch, an outing he'd like to repeat this evening.

There are things I worry about, however.  Rickie Weeks seems to be coming out of his postseason slumber, and I hate having a guy like that hitting behind the major threats of Ryan Braun and Fielder.  Gallardo was someone I worried about coming into the series, and that almost came to pass.  Another thing I worry about is tonight's starter, Randy Wolf.

On the face of it, Wolf doesn't look like something to worry about.  He gave up seven runs in three innings in his start against Arizona in the NLDS and also struggled some in September.  That said, he's one of those lefties that, at times, have bedeviled the Redbirds.  He was able to go eight innings of one run ball against the Cards at the beginning of September, which was even after this run started.  Not many people were able to do that to St. Louis in September, which means the Cards have to come to play tonight.

To be fair, either Wolf is on or he's really off when it comes to St. Louis.  He faced the team five times, and here are the results:

May 6: 5 IP, 6 ER (at SL)
Aug 3: 6 IP, 5 ER (at Mil)
Aug 10: 8 IP, 1 ER (at SL)
Aug 31: 5 IP, 6 ER (at Mil)
Sept 5: 8 IP, 1 ER (at SL)

If he's working on an on-off pattern, he's scheduled for an off game which I'd gladly take.  I expect that this will be another night where the Cardinals need to get to him early.  If he's allowed to get into a rhythm, they could be in for another one of those eight inning games, which would not be good.

Interestingly enough, Lance Berkman is going to sit tonight in favor of Allen Craig.  Berkman has never hit Wolf well and even though Berkman wanted to cry like a big baby (sarcasm, folks, sarcasm!) after being hit with a pitch last night, the career matchups and not injury are the reason why Craig gets a start.  Which means either he'll have to step up--his one hit in the postseason was big, but that's his only one--or Matt Holliday is really going to have to be on his game, because Pujols isn't going to see anything at all with runners on.  Craig's had his own struggles with Wolf, so this is definitely something to watch.

It's been a while since the Cardinals were in the driver's seat.  Let's see how they handle the car.  Hopefully we'll see them put the pedal down tonight with another win!

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Cardinals: Momentum Killers

Posted on October 11, 2011 at 6:36 AM
I wrote back in August, after an Edwin Jackson start in Milwaukee even, that the Cardinals had no concept of momentum.  Thankfully, in some ways they still don't.

The Cardinals--and more directly, Albert Pujols--made sure to stop Milwaukee's momentum before it started, crushing the Brewers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series 12-3.  Albert got it started right, smashing a two-run home run in the first inning.  Jackson kept the Brewers off the board, Albert and others piled on, and this game got out of control in a hurry.

Obviously, every Cardinal fan owes a debt of thanks to Derrick Goold.  Derrick's line of questioning after Game 1 and his article in relation to that seemed to stir up Albert and I think a lot of us know that when Albert gets stirred up, good things can happen.  It's one of the things that makes Albert such an amazing ballplayer.

With all the big hits and runs driven in, it's somewhat easy to overlook that this was the same heads-up Pujols that we are used to seeing.  I'm not sure everyone would have scored on that wild pitch from Shaun Marcum, especially not a big guy like Pujols.  We know, though, that he's an aggressive and fearless base runner and it got the Cards another run, a run that for a while looked like it was going to be necessary.

Someone on Twitter (and I'm not sure who it was right now) made the point that even though everyone's talking about how a good postseason could raise Pujols's contract price in the offseason, that seems to be a bit strange.  Pujols has put up an historic career, so a good postseason is going to be raising his price?  I mean, I guess in theory after an "off year" (which most players would still take in a heartbeat) a down postseason would give some GMs ammunition to try to come in low, but it was going to be 20-25 million a year even if Albert went 0-40 in October.  However, I don't think you are going to see Albert get any offers for 30 million per even if he literally tears open his uniform to reveal a big S on his chest.  The range for Pujols is pretty much set, I think.

It's probably not a surprise that Josh and I talked about a couple of things during Game 1, one that Pujols's average was a bit deceptive (he'd gone 4-5 in one game, but hit about .200 other than that in the NLDS) and that there'd been a lack of power in the offseason.  Always good to be that wrong that quickly, huh?  Not only did Albert have his big night, but he and David Freese went yard.  Talk about other things that just didn't carry over!

Pretty interesting to see that another thing that was different about Game 2 was that Tony La Russa didn't try to run the starter overly long.  The Cards were up 7-2, there was one out, and Ryan Braun was on second base.  This was a much lower stress situation than Game 1, when Jaime Garcia was on the ropes.  Still, TLR went to the pen, brought in Arthur Rhodes to face Prince Fielder (in shades of earlier in the season, he wasn't able to get him out) and then Lance Lynn to finish off the inning and keep the Cards rolling.  (Granted, that was helped out by a missed call at first on the inning-ending double play, but we'll take it.)

So now the series shifts to St. Louis.  A day off today (after another happy flight) and then Chris Carpenter goes up against Yovani Gallardo.  I've said a number of times before this series that Gallardo scares me more than any other Milwaukee pitcher.  I feel like he's been able to shut the Cards down and it'll take a great pitching performance to beat him.

That might not be as accurate as I feared.  Looking at the numbers, Albert's had a huge career against him, so if he's still locked in during Game 3, that could be a big weapon for the Cardinals.  Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal have good averages against him, as does Ryan Theriot.

Going through his game log, his two September outings against the Cardinals weren't so great, as he gave up three runs in six innings in Busch and the outing before that he allowed eight runs in 4.2 innings in Miller Park.  Even his August start, when the Brewers were rolling and the Cardinals hadn't come together yet, was iffy as he allowed five runs (four earned) in five innings.  Really looking at it, he had the one good start--May 7, when he carried the no-hitter late into the game and threw eight shutout innings--and that's it against the Redbirds this year.

Does that mean you take him for granted?  No, of course not.  He's still a pitcher that can dominate on a given night.  He's just not been as regularly dominant against the Cardinals as I thought he had been.

Speaking of game logs, let's take a look at Chris Carpenter's.  Since the beginning of September, Carp's had three complete game shutouts (including Game 5) and one game of eight scoreless innings out of eight appearances.  He was beaten up against Cincinnati to start this run and won a game in Pittsburgh where he gave up four runs, but on the whole he's been clicking.  I don't figure he'll throw a shutout, but if the offense is clicking, he won't have to.

If the Cards are able to win Game 3, and I feel even better about their chances after writing this post, things are really lined up for them well.  Randy Wolf has struggled, and though he limited the Cards to one run his last time out, they got to him for six runs in five innings the time before that.  Kyle Lohse has pitched well on long rest this last six weeks, so the Cards have the advantage there.  Then in Game 5, they'd have Garcia going at home, which is always good, against Zack Greinke who they were able to touch well in Game 1 in a losing cause.

No predictions or guarantees--the Cards could drop any of these games without it being a major surprise--but it's at least reasonably possible the next time the Cards get on a plane, it'll be to Game 3 of the World Series.  Here's hoping!
 
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Well, It's Worked Before

Posted on October 10, 2011 at 6:55 AM
The Cardinals opened the series by getting a three-run lead but blowing it, scoring six runs but losing the ballgame, and leave Game 1 down 1-0 on the road.

Haven't we been here before?

There were a lot of similarities between the opening game against the Brewers yesterday and Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies.  Both times, a big home run pushed the Cards out to a three-run lead.  Both times, a big blow by the first baseman took the lead back.  Yet there were significant differences as well.

The main one being that Zack Greinke, for as good as he is, really isn't the ace that the Cards need to worry about, unlike Roy Halladay.  Greinke had been very good at home and for the Cardinals to pile up six runs against him says that this was much more of a pitching fault than an offensive failure.

On the flip side, this is a seven game series instead of a five gamer.  As with the NLDS, the Cards only needed to win one game here in Milwaukee, something they still can do.  So there's definitely no reason to panic.

Where do we put the blame, then, if we are looking to do it?  Well, going into the series it was pretty obvious that if the Cardinals couldn't contain Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, this was going to be a short outing for the Redbirds.  Yesterday proved that, as Braun and Fielder both left the yard and combined to drive in six of the runs.  The game plan for those guys has to be better going forward, and that's a possibility--Ryan Howard had a big Game 1 and then was never heard from again.  That might be a bit much to ask for, especially for Braun, but the Cards should be able to better limit the damage.

In fact, there seemed to be a great chance to do that yesterday.  There was a Twitter discussion before Braun's key third at-bat, when two were on and nobody was out in the fifth, that Octavio Dotel, who was warming up in the pen, had struck out Braun six of eight times in his career.  So if Dotel was warming up, why did he not get into the game when that situation presented itself?  Tony La Russa says that Jaime Garcia was pitching better than that and thought he could get Braun.  As inconsistent as Garcia had been, though, I'm not sure that you don't go get him.

You do hate to burn through your bullpen and you can afford to gamble a bit with Game 1, but being able to get a win in this game would have been really big.  Even if you stay with Garcia after Braun, though, you have to at least go out to the mound before Fielder bats.  Garcia looked to just rear back and throw a pitch down the heart of the plate, looking to get a strike or to overpower Fielder.  It didn't work as Fielder lost it in the swirl of white towels.  Calming Garcia down, reminding him that he still had a lead and needed to be careful, might have been a game-changing idea.  Instead, the lead--and Garcia--was gone.

The Cardinals did try to rally, but runners on the corners for Albert Pujols in the seventh became a regular-season at-bat, as AP bounced into a double play that ended the threat.  The playoff atmosphere that got to Garcia seemed to get to Pujols somewhat as well, as he expanded his zone there and the team paid.  He has to realize that a walk in that situation would have been fine, as it'd have brought Lance Berkman to the plate.  It's so easy, though, to want to do too much, especially in a hostile environment and trailing.

Some nice work by David Freese yesterday, both offensively and defensively.  Josh from Pitchers Hit Eighth was passing through town and stopped to watch the game with me, and neither one of us thought Freese's home run was going to go out.  The ball kept carrying, though, and it put the Cards back on top for a while.  Freese also turned a couple of nice double plays to keep the score within reach.

La Russa also used yesterday to see what he had out of his new roster members.  Kyle McClellan and Lance Lynn were added to the NLCS roster while Jake Westbrook and Skip Schumaker (due to injury) were taken off.  McClellan showed that there really was a reason he was left of the NLDS roster, as he gave up a run in just one-third of an inning.  Lynn put a couple of runners on in his inning, including an intentional pass to Fielder, but got Rickie Weeks to hit into one of those double plays and left unscathed.

I still think there are a lot of positives in this series for the Redbirds.  Greinke was probably their second-best pitcher and the Cards were able to get to him on his home turf, so there seems a good chance that they can get to Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf (if they aren't befuddled by Wolf has they have been in the past).  The Cardinal rotation should be better, as they've gotten some of the first-game jitters out of the way.  If the Redbirds can keep it out of Milwaukee's bullpen late in the game and behind, they can still do this.

Edwin Jackson goes tonight against Marcum.  Jackson got plenty of chances to face the Brewers after the big trade and, save for the first one, did rather well.  If the Cards can take this one and go back to St. Louis 1-1, they could theoretically put it to rest on the Busch Stadium diamond.  Perhaps the happiest flight would be the one they didn't have to take.  So while tonight's not a must win--win three in St. Louis and take either Game 6 or 7 in Milwaukee is still reasonable--it's still very big.  Here's hoping to a quick lead and some outstanding pitching from Jackson!

Know Your Enemy 2: NLCS Edition

Posted on October 9, 2011 at 12:37 AM
I'm doing my best to cover all the bases in getting ready for the NLCS.  Not only did I sit down with Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew for the podcast (which you can listen to here), but also I exchanged questions with Jaymes Langrehr of Brewers Bar.  He also posed some questions to me, which should be up on his blog soon.  For now, though, take a glimpse at what Jaymes is thinking about when it comes to this series.  By the way, you can follow both of these guys on Twitter--Jim is BerniesCrew, Jaymes BrewersBar--so you can keep a pulse on the other side during the series.

C70: Let's talk about your NLDS. Were there any surprises--good or bad? 

BB: I'd say there were plenty of surprises, which you're always going to get in a high-stakes short series. I wouldn't have expected Yuniesky Betancourt to have as big of a series as he did (5-for-18, with a double, triple, and a go-ahead RBI in Game 5). I wouldn't have expected Carlos Gomez to get on base in extra innings considering he posted a .276 OBP this year. I wasn't expecting John Axford to blow a save (although it was going to happen sooner or later), let alone one in which he only made one mistake on the double by Parra. Going back further in the series, I didn't expect Shaun Marcum to get roughed up like he did in Phoenix. 

A lot of unexpected things happened, but that's why it was such an entertaining series. I would've remembered it as one of the best postseason series I've seen even if the Brewers had lost Game 5. 

C70: How is the team looking going into the NLCS? Any concerns? 

BB: Rickie Weeks didn't hit well in the NLDS, and save for a mammoth home run in the season's closing days, hasn't hit for much power at all since coming back from his severe ankle sprain. He's still not running all that well, and his lateral movement defensively still seems iffy at best. Still, Weeks at 80% is still better than the other options the team has, especially if Jerry Hairston keeps starting at third base. 

I am a little concerned about Marcum and Randy Wolf after their poor starts in the LDS, but both were prone to random bad outings during the season, too. It's hard to make too much of one-start sample sizes, but it was odd to see Marcum throw so few changeups in his start when he threw them about 25% of the time during the season. 

Oddly enough, I'm not all that worried about a rookie manager having to face off against Tony La Russa with a trip to the World Series on the line. I've been critical of some of the things Ron Roenicke does, but for the most part, he's done a very good job of keeping a level head and making sure his players don't play tight. He could have had a quicker hook with Marcum and Wolf in Arizona, but he handled Game 5 just about as well as anyone could have. 

C70: Which projected pitching matchup do you think favors the Brewers the most? Which one worries you the most? 

BB: I think I like the Game 1 matchup best for the Brewers, with Zack Greinke going against either Jaime Garcia or Kyle Lohse (I thought I had seen it will be Garcia, but apparently nothing is decided yet?). Greinke is hard to beat period, but in Milwaukee he's been something else, and Garcia has had his troubles on the road. 

On the other end of the spectrum, I am definitely not looking forward to facing Chris Carpenter as the series shifts to St. Louis. If the Cardinals can get out of Milwaukee with the series tied at 1, I think they have a very good chance of taking control of the series in Game 3. 

C70: What do you think the odds are that any of the regular season "bad blood" rears up during the series? 

BB: I really wanted to see this matchup because of all the emotions involved. I'm not rooting for a fight, but the added tension adds to the drama of the series. I think a lot of people are expecting something to happen, but I would think both managers are making it clear that the best way to retaliate is by beating the other team on the field. Neither team can afford ejections or suspensions of key players at this point, so I think things could actualyl be remarkably calm. Of course, that could all go out the window depending on which player is getting plunked. 

C70: We know the rotation is strong (save for Randy Wolf's last start) and the offense is good. How is the bullpen looking right now? 

BB: Game 5-induced stomach ulcers notwithstanding, I still really like the Brewers' bullpen. It almost seems as though if the Brewers can get through 6 innings with the lead, they have the game well in hand -- Takashi Saito and/or LaTroy Hawkins can take the 7th, Francisco Rodriguez can take the 8th, and John Axford can take the 9th. Kameron Loe is a groundball machine, while Marco Estrada and Chris Narveson are very serviceable long men in a postseason bullpen. It still feels weird to say after all these years, but the bullpen shouldn't be a problem for the Brewers. 

C70: What are your expectations for this series? 

BB: Lots of emotion from both sides, but nothing will be decided in the first couple games. I'd be surprised if it takes less than 6 games to decide it, considering just how evenly matched these teams are. I can't even begin to imagine the excitement/nervousness in Milwaukee if things got to a Game 7. 

From the Brewers' perspective, things are set up nicely for a run at the World Series with Philadelphia out on the NL side and New York and Tampa gone in the AL. I like their chances. Still, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals walk away with the pennant. I saw a comparison elsewhere relating this series to the NFC Championship game between the Packers and Bears, except the Brewers were playing the role of the Bears -- division champions, homefield advantage, and vocally confident. The Cardinals are a bit more like the Packers of last year -- nearly decimated by injuries, snuck into the playoffs as a wildcard after another team choked (the Giants losing to Philly to let Green Bay in), but a team that get absurdly hot at the right time and seems to have everything breaking their way. That's a comparison that makes a Wisconsin sports fan nervous. 

No matter what happens, though, this is going to be a memorable series for both sides, and something that will build the rivalry. As much as Brewers fans hate the Cubs, there hasn't really ever been anything like this in that rivalry.

My appreciation to Jaymes for taking the time to answer these questions.  This should be a fun week!

Operation: Squash the Plush

Posted on October 8, 2011 at 10:11 AM

NLCS.jpgAfter a season of discussion about how the NL East was the best division and how weak the NL Central is, for the third time in the last eight years, two NL Central teams meet up in the NLCS, bringing all the baggage of 18 meetings with them.  (Interestingly enough, there have been 16 NLCS meetings since the wild-card was introduced.  Three times it's been all NL Central, twice it was all NL East.  Other than that, there were no rivalry games determining who gets to the World Series.)

The Cardinals and Brewers split their meetings this year, but I think looking at the situation around when these games were played might be more meaningful.  Let's take a look at the series 

May 7-9 at Milwaukee: St. Louis wins 2-1

Jaime Garcia took a perfect game into the eighth in the first game, won by the Cardinals 6-0.  The second game, which was the UCB Progressive Game Blog for the year, was almost as dominant by Yovani Gallardo.  The rubber game was won by Kyle McClellan during his strong start to the season, with the only run against him being an inherited runner allowed to score by the bullpen.  Pitching was obviously the name of the game in this series.

June 10-12 at Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 3-0

This series might have been on me, since it was part of the eight game losing streak the Cards went on while I was on vacation.  Kyle Lohse had a rough start in the first game, but the bullpen was pretty atrocious as well.  Good thing the two that pitched were Ryan Franklin and Brian Tallet, two pitchers that are no longer in the organization.  The second was during Chris Carpenter's rough part of the season, as he allowed five runs in six innings, four immediately after receiving a 2-1 lead.  Finally, there was a close 4-3 loss, which was frustrating since the Cards had a 3-0 lead in this one.  Jake Westbrook was the starter and couldn't hold it.  Westbrook will not be starting in this NLCS.

Aug 1-3 at Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 2-1

This is when the rivalry stuff really started.  The Cards drop the opener behind Carpenter, who gave up five runs in the fifth inning.  Matt Holliday hit a two-run home run in the first, but that's all that the Cardinals could muster.  Game 2...well, you remember Game 2, I'm pretty sure.  When we make a list of the great regular-season games, this extra-inning affair will be on it.  The up and in to Albert Pujols, the retaliation pitches at Ryan Braun, Yadier Molina getting ejected, Garcia hit a home run, the Cards blow a three run lead, but rally to force extra innings, this game had it all.  The third game was a bit of a letdown, as all of us that were hoping things were turning around were disappointed when the Brewers blew the doors off of Edwin Jackson, who was left to absorb a huge beating due to the bullpen usage the night before.

Aug 9-11 vs. Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 2-1

Hard to believe, but the Brewers didn't come to St. Louis until this late in the season.  This was during the Brewers' extreme hot stretch, where the only team that could beat them was St. Louis and even that wasn't done with much regularity.  The first one was a extra-inning loss that the Cards looked to win in the ninth with Pujols up and two on with two out, but he popped out to end the threat.  The Brewers then scored two off of Octavio Dotel to win it.  The second game didn't go much better, as the Cards couldn't solve Randy Wolf and the Brewers had figured out Westbrook.  The Cards did salvage the last game, when aces Carpenter and Gallardo met and Pujols went 4-4 with a home run.

Aug 30-Sept 1 at Milwaukee: Cardinals win 3-0

Here is the first series between the two teams during the Cards' remarkable turnaround.  In the first game, Jackson put aside the memories of his disaster start in Miller Park to allow only one run in seven innings.  The revamped bullpen clicked and the Cards came away with a 2-1 win.  The second game had the remarkable appearance of a Jake Westbrook grand slam, which negated the three runs he had allowed.  Pujols hit another homer and the bullpen again was stellar.  The Cards brought the brooms to the final game in repeat fashion, with a number of things that happened in the second (AP and Rafael Furcal hitting homers in the first, a grand slam) occurring in that one as well.

Sept 5-7 vs. Milwaukee: Cardinals win 2-1

The shadows made it into public discourse after the first game.  Westbrook struck out nine and allowed three, but the Redbird bats weren't able to keep up as they only got four hits in a mid-afternoon start.  No such problem in the second game, as Kyle Lohse pitched a strong game and, even though the bullpen got touched some, the four Cardinal runs stood up.  The last game, which was a Chris Carpenter shutout (he's done that a lot recently), also brought us the easy villain, Nyjer Morgan, who threw chewing tobacco at Carpenter after Carp struck him out, also took to Twitter to continue his inane ramblings, mentioning also that he hoped those "crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha playoffs"  Dignity, maturity, spelling, Tony Plush knows not those things.

Looking at this breakdown, there are definitely some positives for St. Louis.  The Cards won five of the last six games the teams played, when they kicked into the gear they are in now.  They were able to go 6-6 in Milwaukee, which is impressive since the Brewers only lost 24 games there at all this year.  Seven of Milwaukee's nine wins either game before the trading deadline or in the immediate aftermath, before this team came together.  Plus, they beat Chris Carpenter early in the year, but they didn't do much against him late in it.

I think Cardinal fans would be much more frustrated losing to the Brewers than they would have been to the Phillies.  It's not the stakes so much as the fact that St. Louis has a team that can beat Milwaukee and they'd get a lot of joy out of doing it.

Looks like Jaime Garcia is going to go in Game 1, which is a little surprising since it's a road start, but it leaves him available to start Game 5 at home.  Teams can overcome a loss in the first game.  In the fifth, it's a little tougher.  Rumor has it Edwin Jackson is going in the second game, which would be surprising given that big blowup he had in Miller Park if he hadn't already come back from that in the venue, then Carpenter in three and Lohse in four.  I like the matchups, I like the way this team is playing.  Can they win and make it to the Series?  Surely.  Will they?  We'll find out starting Sunday afternoon.

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And So It Begins

Posted on October 1, 2011 at 9:36 AM
I wrote two different posts yesterday talking about the NLDS and in neither one of them did I actually get around to asking a question that I meant to ask.  So before we talk about the latest Cardinal roster move, let me jump into that.

I don't to speak for a large part of Cardinal fandom (though I would hope the fandom would speak in the comments to what I'm about to say) but so often we go into the postseason with high hopes and high expectations.  I don't think there's an NLDS that I haven't expected the Cardinals to win.  So often it seems like that's just a stepping stone to going deep into October.  

It hasn't always panned out that way, of course.  When the Cards were swept last time, in 2009 against the Dodgers, there was a lot of angst and frustration.  We knew this team was better than that.  We knew they should be moving on.  And yet they weren't.

Today, the Cards kick off another NLDS.  I do believe they can win it (as I noted yesterday) and I know that if they don't win, I'll be disappointed at seeing the season come to a close.

And yet, I don't think I'll be able to get really worked up about it, no matter what.  Sure, a couple of late inning collapses and I'll rue what could have been.  In the heat of the moment, I might get irate over what has just taken place.  But angst?  Lasting frustration?  I just don't see that happening.

I think that, because I had pretty much put this team to bed in August, that everything from now on is house money.  I want the team to win, I think they can win, but I don't think I can get all wrapped up in a loss knowing that if Atlanta had just been a smidgen better at holding a lead, the Cards are playing golf right now.  September gave us a lot of thrills and have given us the chance to see some October baseball, so to some degree I think I am just "happy to be here."  That doesn't mean I don't want to see more, just that I'll be content either way.

Being the fact that the Cards are an underdog rather than a favorite probably plays into it as well.  It's one thing when we've seen a team be strong all year long and are playing a team that's perhaps their equal or less.  We feel the Cards really should win those series.  Instead, this time they are playing possibly the best team in baseball, a team that is on paper built to win it all.  Again, doesn't mean that the Cards can't do it or that it'd be some major miracle if they did, but I can accept being beaten by a team that appears superior better than I can a team that the Cards really should handle.

Am I wrong?  Are more of you going to live and die with this October just like you have in years past?  Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

Now, we've talked about the surprise in the rotation already, but there was another twist to the roster.  Kyle McClellan won't be on the NLDS roster, it seems.  McClellan had complained of a dead arm recently, but he says he was back to full health.  The Cardinals felt they couldn't trust him to be available on back-to-back days and so they left him off.

That's a very, very tough call.  As Kevin referred to last night on Twitter, the Cards asked McClellan twice this year to change roles, first from the pen to the rotation when Adam Wainwright went down, then back to the pen when Edwin Jackson was acquired.  McClellan was a good soldier, doing what the team asked of him.  In that regard, doesn't he deserve the honor of going to the postseason with the club?  I mean, that's the reason that Jake Westbrook is still on the team, isn't it?  Westbrook hasn't relieved in a game since 2004.  He can eat up innings if the Cards are getting blown out, but that's about it.  I don't think we want to see Westbrook come into a game in the fifth if it hangs in the balance.

On the flip side, the Cards have to put out the best team they have, and if they are concerned that McClellan can't go more than an inning every other day or so, that's a legitimate reason to leave him off the roster.  The postseason isn't a time for sentiment and minimizing hurt feelings.  Remember, the Cards dropped Jason Marquis from the roster in '06 due to ineffectiveness.  McClellan has been prone to the long ball lately--possibly due to arm fatigue--and that can be a dagger in the postseason.

So I can't fault the Cards for doing that.  I do wish they'd have made room for Eduardo Sanchez, but they aren't completely sold on his health either, so I guess they are consistent about the whole thing.

The good news about the roster is that Rafael Furcal and Matt Holliday will both be on it after passing some physical evaluations.  It looks like Furcal might be healthy enough to go in Game 1, while Holliday isn't likely to start until later in the series, but could possibly pinch-hit.  Hopefully those guys can be healthy and productive, because that would be huge for the Cardinals' chances.

One last note--Tony La Russa is again a trendsetter.  He hit the pitcher eighth, then a couple of other teams started flirting with it.  He announces that Chris Carpenter is going in Game 2 on short rest and immediately Milwaukee thinks that's a great idea for Zack Greinke.  'Course,  Ron Roenicke said if Greinke had thrown 100 pitches he wouldn't be doing it, which shows he still has a ways to go before getting to TLR levels.

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Heroes
Lance Berkman (24)
Albert Pujols (19)
Matt Holliday (15)
Chris Carpenter (10)
Kyle Lohse (9)
Yadier Molina (9)
Ryan Theriot (8)
David Freese (7)
Jaime Garcia (7)
Jon Jay (7)
Jake Westbrook (6)
Allen Craig (5)
Kyle McClellan (5)
Colby Rasmus (5)
Edwin Jackson (4)
Skip Schumaker (4)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Gerald Laird (2)
Nick Punto (2)
Marc Rzepczynski (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Lance Lynn (1)

2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Ryan Theriot (12)
Albert Pujols (11)
Jake Westbrook (10)
David Freese (8)
Ryan Franklin (7)
Jaime Garcia (7)
Fernando Salas (7)
Kyle Lohse (6)
Kyle McClellan (6)
Colby Rasmus (6)
Skip Schumaker (6)
Miguel Batista (5)
Chris Carpenter (5)
Daniel Descalso (5)
Matt Holliday (5)
Jon Jay (5)
Jason Motte (5)
Allen Craig (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Tyler Greene (4)
Yadier Molina (4)
Lance Berkman (3)
Mitchell Boggs (3)
Gerald Laird (3)
Edwin Jackson (2)
Trever Miller (2)
Corey Patterson (2)
Marc Rzepczynski (2)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Maikel Cleto (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Octavio Dotel (1)
Mark Hamilton (1)
Lance Lynn (1)
Nick Punto (1)
Arthur Rhodes (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Raul Valdes (1)
PJ Walters (1)

2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2011)
    Adam Wainwright 94.7% (down 0.9%)
    Matt Holliday 91.1% (up 6.6%)
    Albert Pujols 90.4% (down 8.3%)
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Derrick Goold 87.8%
    Chris Carpenter 86.9% (down 6.7%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Mike Shannon 84.9% (down 4.6%)
    John Rooney 84.3% (up 8.1%)
    Yadier Molina 83.7% (down 8.3%)
    Colby Rasmus 81.8% (up 5.0%)
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Jim Hayes 76.1%
    John Mozeliak 74.1% (down 12.0%)
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    Bill Dewitt 71.0% (down 12.0%)
    Tony La Russa 70.8% (down 10.2%)
    BJ Rains 70.4%
    Ricky Horton 69.1%
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Skip Schumaker 64.1% (down 17.0%)
    Al Hrabosky 63.2% (up 19.0%)
    Mark McGwire 62.5% (down 10.7%)
    Dan Lozano 58.7%
    Joe Strauss 57.5%
    Kyle Lohse 55.1% (down 11.7%)

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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