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Playing Pepper 2010: Philadelphia PhilliesLast year before the season began, I posed five questions to a blogger for each team, so as to get to know the rest of baseball. I focus so heavily on the Cardinals that sometimes the rest of MLB can pass me by. That went very well, so much so that it spawned not only a postseason edition but was part of the impetus for the formation of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.So this year, I've brought Playing Pepper back, with a little bit of a twist. Instead of five questions, I posed 10 questions, and this year every team got the same set. Plus, tapping into those BBA connections, I sent them to every blogger representing that team in the BBA. We'll try to do two a day in a general alphabetical order---ah, who are we kidding, we'll get them up when we get them up. Philadelphia Phillies 2009 Finish: 93-69, first in NL East, lost in the World Series It's a good time to be a Phillies fan. An organization that spent so long trying to return and win a championship has now been to the Series two years in a row and, on paper, looks primed for a three-peat. There are some quality Phillies blogs in the BBA and I was lucky enough to round up Bill from Crashburn Alley, Max from Fire Eric Bruntlett and Scott from Phils Baseball to expound upon this team and what 2010 looks like for them. Scroll Down to Continue Reading
C70: How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it? CA: I would give the Phillies' off-season, orchestrated by GM Ruben Amaro, a high B. Speaking as a fan and not as an objective analyst, I would have preferred for the organization to go all-out in an attempt to reclaim the World Series championship by keeping Cliff Lee and trading for Roy Halladay. However, the objective analyst in me realizes that 2010 is not the only goal, so I will be thanking Amaro in 2011 and beyond for not sacrificing the Minor League system for adding a few percentage points to the team's chance to win this season. I do think Amaro received too little in return for Lee. Personally, I would not have pulled the trigger on any trade with Seattle that didn't involve outfielder Michael Saunders. FEB: Ruben Amaro, Jr. certainly had another very busy - and very productive
- off-season. I generally agree with who he let go. Third-baseman Pedro
Feliz, who had decent power and was as good as anyone defensively, but
could not be depended on in the clutch, proven by his 0-4 performance
with runners in scoring position in Game 6 of the World Series. Brett
Myers, who despite being great fun to talk about off the field,
suffered an injury that kept him three months of 2009, and is a big
question coming into this season in Houston. In terms of signings and acquisitions, I think Placido Polanco adds a much-needed contact factor to a team that usually goes for the long ball. Danys Baez and Jose Contreras provide solid veteran relief help. Ross Gload is a nice bench bat and infield replacement. Juan Castro is a decent replacement for Bruntlett. And Jayson Werth's beard is a strong replacement for Bruntlett's beard. Oh, and that Roy guy? Halladay? Yeah, he's the best pitcher in baseball. Onto the ones that got away... I'm not happy with how the Chan Ho Park situation played out, but that's far more his fault than anyone on the Phillies. The Phillies offered him $3 million to return to the 7th inning job, the same role he so well occupied for much of 2009, but he turned it down, saying how he wanted to start. (By the way, this is all despite the fact that as the 5th starter, Park was 1-1 in 7 starts (33.1 IP), with a 7.29 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.67 K/9, a K:BB ratio of 21:17 (1.24), and a .311 BAA. As a reliever, he was 2-2 in 38 appearances (50 IP), with a 2.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.36 K/9, a K:BB ratio of 52:16 (3.25) and a .231 BAA. Just in case you were wondering...) Concerning that Cliff Lee trade fiasco, I realize that any rotation involving Halladay, Lee, and Cole Hamels would be ungodly and arguably the best in baseball history, I really do. But this comes down to a matter of personal philosophy. You have to look inside and ask yourself, "Would you sell your soul for as close to a guaranteed World Series as you can get? Would you sacrifice your team's future for one year?" And after thinking about that for a while, I would say no. You might disagree with me. In fact, you probably do, but wouldn't you rather have four or five years of Halladay and Hamels and a good chance to make the World Series over one year of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, a great chance to make the World Series, but mediocrity for the next five years? The only player I am even the least bit concerned with losing is - as weird as this is to say - Pedro Martinez. He was far more than your serviceable five-slot starter, your "replacement player," if you will, in the second half of 2009, contributing a VORP of 9.6. Remember that was with little preparation to get into shape. Just imagine what he could give the team after a full spring training workout regimen. It'd be much better than whatever we happen to get this year out of the trifecta of Jose Contreras, Kyle Kendrick, and 8,634-year-old Jamie Moyer. He wanted $5 million to start the entire year, which I would have given him gladly. Overall, I'd give the offseason a solid B+ grade. PB: The Phillies' off-season has been anything but boring, and fans are still talking about the trade that shipped Cliff Lee to Seattle and brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. I will begrudgingly say it was a good move because Halladay is a slight upgrade and they retain prospects, but it was extremely painful to watch Lee go. The Cliff Lee discussion is too long to describe here, so suffice it to say that the Phillies could have kept Cliff Lee (who was scheduled to make $9 million in 2010) and tried to sign him long term. Finally, Placido Polanco will replace Pedro Feliz at third. Defense could be an issue at third, since Polanco last played third in 2005 and he is replacing the sure-handed Pedro Feliz. But Feliz was a terrible hitter to watch and Polanco will be a nice contact hitter to accompany the power in the lineup. Overall, I would consider this a slight upgrade to the team. Grade: B CA: It's easy to say that the Phillies need Cole Hamels to rebound, J.A. Happ to not regress as heavily as many expect, Brad Lidge to return to his 2008 self, etc. but the Phillies have dealt with so many problems over the past three years and overcome them all. In 2007, for instance, when the Phillies won the NL East, Adam Eaton and his 6.29 ERA made 30 starts. Freddy Garcia and his 5.90 ERA made 11 starts. J.D. Durbin and his 5.15 ERA made 10 starts. In 2008, the Phillies had a mediocre rotation as well aside from Cole Hamels and won the World Series despite it. Last season, Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge all had very disappointing seasons and the team was just two wins away from repeating as World Champions. The one constant through it all has been their offense. As long as the Phillies are able to average five runs a game, they will be able to overcome Hamels and Lidge if they don't regress towards the mean, and Happ if he does. FEB: The key to success is Cole Hamels regaining his 2008 form. Between 2008 and 2009, Cole Hamels's ERA jumped 123 points, his WHIP 21, his BAA 43. What stayed similar, however, was such ERA estimators as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching - no change), xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching - 6-point change), and tERA (a Fangraphs.com stat measuring "true" ERA - 12-point change.) So, how does one explain these changes or similarities from one year to the next? Quite frankly, in a word, luck. The most important change is his stats was a 55-point change in a little stat called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play. It measures batting average - or, in this case, batting average against - on hits that aren't home runs, out at bats that aren't strikeouts or hit-by-pitches, and it's the ultimate measure of luck in baseball. League average, whether on offense or defense, in about .300, with an average standard deviation of around 20 or 30 points. In 2008, Hamels had a BABIP of .270, which red-flagged his abnormally lucky season of a 3.09 ERA. Unfortunately, 2009 was on the complete opposite end of the spectrum for Cole, as he turned in a BABIP of .325, similarly red-flagging his abnormally unlucky year. 2010 should be somewhere in the middle of the two, more or less, probably closer to 2008, actually, giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's a good pitcher by nature. PB: Three things: Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, and the bullpen. Cole Hamels went from World Series and NLCS MVP to a slightly above average pitcher last year. A huge question for the Phillies is: which Cole Hamels shows up in 2010? He has been developing a new pitch (cut fastball or slider) over the winter to offset a subpar curveball, but will it be enough? Brad Lidge was perfect in 2008, but ranked as the worst reliever in 2009. With such polar opposite years, determining which version of Lidge we will see in 2010 is a real mystery. After undergoing elbow and knee surgeries, Lidge may not even be ready for opening day. But the Phillies are counting on Lidge to resemble the dominant 2008 guy and not the repulsive 2009 pitcher. The bullpen is generally a question mark for any team, and the Phillies are no different. They said goodbye to some pretty effective relievers in Scott Eyre and Chan Ho Park and replaced them with some marginally good guys. And with the questions surrounding Brad Lidge and a lot of new faces, the Phils might need a few of those complete game efforts from Roy Halladay. CA: Offense. Expect it to be the top offense in the National League once again. FEB: The offense is clearly the strong suit of this team. They were 4th in baseball in terms of runs scored, 5th in doubles, tied for 2nd in home runs, 5th in runs batted in, 3rd in slugging percentage, and 7th in stolen bases. They basically traded in Pedro Feliz, a power hitter - which they could afford to lose - for Placido Polanco, a contact hitter, who can help the Phils at batting average, for example, where they were 23rd, or on-base percentage, a category in which they were 14th. They also had no hitter above .300, the highest being Shane Victorino at .292. I like how the team is a little more balanced this season, and it also helps that Jimmy Rollins put his pre-All Star Break, consisting of 7 homers, a .229 average, .287 OBP, and .642 OPS, behind him, to triple his overall home run total and raise his OPS 160 points. Look for another season of the Phillies in the top 25% percentile of most offensive categories. PB: Offense. The only change to the Phillies everyday lineup has been the signing of Placido Polanco at third base. He could be a great addition, because the Phillies have a ton of power and some speed, but they strike out way too much. Polanco is an extreme contact hitter and will provide some real stability to that lineup. With good hitters like Rollins and Victorino, as well as 30+ homer guys like Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, the Phillies should lead the league in runs once again. CA: A lack of capable left-handers out of the bullpen. As of right now, J.C. Romero is the only lefty guaranteed to make the squad and he is on the mend from surgery on his left forearm. He may not be ready for opening day. Other than Romero, it's unknown what other lefty will find a role in the bullpen. It may be Antonio Bastardo, it may be Sergio Escalona, it may be Mike Zagurski. Problem is that they're all young and they're all unreliable as of right now. FEB: The bullpen is, without a doubt, the Achilles' heel of the Phillies. They blew 22 saves last year, tied for 8th-worst in the league, despite having the 9th-most save opportunities. The rest of the bullpen was fairly middle-of-the-pack - a 3.91 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, both good for 14th in baseball, a 1.87 K/BB rate (18th), and a 7.63 K/9 rate (16th), but they'll need a major improvement from Brad Lidge, who blew 11 saves in a 7.21 ERA-1.81 WHIP season. Ryan Madson had an ERA of 3.26, but will need to be more dependable in the 9th, should anything happen to Lidge. Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey, who compiled a 1.50 ERA in 30 IP and a 3.00 ERA in 42 IP, respectively, will both not return to the team this year. Expect the team to run into far more troubles than last year, should they continue to have trouble shutting the door. PB: The closer position. How effective will Brad Lidge be and will he be healthy? Ryan Madson showed last year that he is not a closer, and the prospect of counting on guys like Baez, Contreras, or Durbin is a little scary. CA: Chase Utley. It's ridiculous how good he is. Since 2005, he has been the Phillies' most valuable player in terms of WAR, and he has been worth no less than 6.8 WAR and as much as 8.1 WAR. To put that in perspective, last year Chone Figgins had a 6.1 WAR and Joe Mauer had an 8.2 WAR. That's right -- at his worst, Utley is Chone Figgins at his best. At his best, Utley is Joe Mauer at his best. FEB: I think it's that Chase Utley earned his due praise. He seems to play great ball for a couple months at a time, but still somehow manages to play second fiddle to the team MVP at the end of the year. Of course, "second fiddle" isn't exactly accurate; 31 homers, 93 RBIs, 23 stolen bags, and a .282 average ain't too shabby. But for someone who seems to be in the MVP discussion every year, but has seen two teammates win the award, I'm going out on a limb to say that Utley finally gets his hardware, too. Obviously, when the words "Phillies" and "team MVP" are brought up, Roy Halladay has to be in the discussion, as well. Considering he's a 3-time 19-game winner, who has only one season in the past 8 with single-digit wins - and only one with an ERA higher than 3.75 in the same time period - it's fairly hard to believe that he's only won one Cy Young award. Either way, this team has no shortage of possible team MVPs this year. You wanna borrow one of them, Pittsburgh? PB: Ryan Howard. Howard has been amazingly consistent with four straight seasons of 40-plus homers and 135-plus RBIs. Although the prospect of Jayson Werth as the team MVP is enticing, it is tough to ignore Howard. As great as he has been, I think he might even be better in 2010. CA: No, the Phillies are a very veteran-laden bunch. However, if we generalize the term "rookie" to simply refer to young players, then any of the aforementioned lefties who may throw out of the bullpen -- Bastardo, Escalona, Zagurski -- may make a positive impact and hopefully they do. FEB: No, unlike last year, when Jay Happ was always a contender for Rookie of Year, I don't believe any rookies will have any significant impact this year. The best prospect, Domonic Brown, is still at least one year from being Major League-ready, in my opinion, although should one of the current outfielders leave town or go down with an injury, he could have a minor bench role. PB: No. The Phillies will not have a rookie in the everday lineup or on the starting pitching staff. A rookie might make an impact in the bullpen or possibly as the fifth starter, but it won't be significant. CA: As mentioned, the Phillies are pretty experienced so there won't be too much that's unexpected. But in terms of contributing positively under the radar, don't forget about Kyle Kendrick. He was very efficient -- thanks to a deflated BABIP -- in 2007 and regained some of that magic in limited work last year. If he can consistently induce weak ground balls and the Phillies infield plays like the top-notch defense that it has been as of late, then Kendrick may be poised to give the Phillies a much-needed boost out of the #5 spot in the starting rotation. FEB: "Breakout" is a very relative term on the two-time defending National League champs and three-time NL East champs, so I'll kind of play the middle of the road here. Carlos Ruiz, who, I guess you would call the only non-offensive force in the line-up really picked it up in the post-season. By the time the playoffs were over, Ruiz had two homers, nine RBIs, 8 runs scored, a .341 AVG, and an OPS greater than 1.000. PB: Kyle Kendrick. After working hard last season to develop a changeup, Kendrick is poised to make another run with the Phillies this year. He will win the fifth starter's spot with his new bag of tricks and show everyone that he is here to stay. C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009? CA: As I wrote at Baseball Daily Digest, it will likely be J.A. Happ. He benefited greatly from a .270 BABIP which is below one standard deviation from the league average. Pitchers, by and large, cannot control BABIP -- there is no year-to-year correlation. That means that we shouldn't expect Happ to compile the same numbers as last year because that BABIP will likely fall around the league average of .300. As a result, more runners will cross home plate and his ERA will probably end up at 4 or higher. FEB: It's no question that the Phillie most primed for a 2010 regression from the previous season is Jay Happ, a topic written on extensively by fellow BBA member and great Phillies writer Bill Baer. Essentially, his BABIP was nearly 30 points lower than the league average. He also stranded the most runners on base than anyone else in Major League Baseball, by 3.4%. We, as Phillies fans, were blessed with a phenomenal rookie fro Happ, but, as it may be, a statistical anomaly. In all likelihood, his 2010 ERA will be closer to 4.30, as separately projected by Bill James and the CHONE system, than the amazing 2.93 he had last season. PB: J.A. Happ. As much as I like Happ, I think he pitched way over his head last year and this year he will come back to earth. A big part of his success last season was a low opponent average with runners in scoring position, but with one year of film for hitters to look at, he might not be able to count on that in 2010. I love his demeaner and composure, but he may not have the stuff to be a consistently good pitcher. CA: I was surprised when I realized this, but it's probably Kyle Kendrick. As I explained at Crashburn Alley: By giving Kendrick the #5 spot, he would effectively be auditioning for the 29 other teams. If he pitches well, he becomes a valuable asset at the trading deadline considering his 2010 salary ($475,000) and that he would be under team control for at least three more years at a relatively cheap price. Due to Kendrick's light salary, the Phillies could get a trade partner to kick in some money in a trade involving one or more higher-paid players which would barely affect their bottom line this season. FEB: I don't see any major trades involving the Phillies before the 2010 off-season, barring any unforeseen injuries. It's possible that Amaro dangles one of his trade-eligible outfielders, Raul Ibanez (he's 37, I highly doubt that) or Jayson Werth (I pray not.) PB: Jayson Werth. I don't think Werth will be traded, but there is nobody noteworthy the Phillies would dangle in my mind. Werth will be a free agent after this year and will command big money, so I could see Ruben Amaro getting creative with Jayson Werth. C70: What will be the team's final record and divisional standing? CA: I think the Phillies will win the NL East with a win total in the low 90's. In fact, I'll put them right at 90 on the nose. FEB: I predict a 97-65 record, good for 1st place in the NL East, as well as the top seed in the National League. PB: 95-67, 1st in the NL East. This Phillies team is slightly better than last year, but so is the rest of the division. How far they go in the playoffs might depend on the success of Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. My thanks to Bill, Max and Scott for taking a look at these questions. Right now, I think the NL is a tossup between the Phils and the Cardinals, so it should be a fascinating summer. |
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