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Playing Pepper 2011: Pittsburgh Pirates

Posted on March 15, 2011 at 11:03 AM
Filed Under: Pittsburgh Pirates | Playing Pepper
Two years ago, I started a series I called Playing Pepper, where I asked questions of bloggers of each major league team about the season to come.  Not only was that informative and entertaining, it led to the spawning of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.  With spring training coming up, it's time to get back into shape by again playing a little pepper.

Pittsburgh Pirates (57-105, 34 GB and sixth in the NL Central)

The streak continued last year, as the curse of Francisco Cabrera ran into its 18th season.  Ever since that pinch hit single won Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS, Pittsburgh has not finished over .500. Going into last season, there was some hope that the streak would end, but that was quickly and effectively dashed.

What about this year?  Do the Pirates end the year facing the possibility of two decades of losing?  A couple of Pittsburgh bloggers take their turn in the tank to answer those questions.

Brian writes for Raise The Jolly Roger, a saying that Pirates fans always hope they'll be hearing more of since it signals a Pittsburgh victory.  You can follow his blog on Facebook as well as catch him on Twitter.

Pat has the blog Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?  The title invokes a painful trade for the Cardinals as well as looking back to a better time in Pittsburgh history.  Pat's the BBA's Pittsburgh Chapter president as well as being involved with a number of projects with this blog.  You can find him on Twitter and Facebook as well.

After the jump, signs of optimism where three rivers collide.


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C70: What was your opinion of the Pittsburgh offseason?

RTJR: It was a strange offseason for sure. We knew there was a decent amount of money to be spent, and at first we heard things about Jorge de la Rosa, Adrian Beltre, and a few other big names. Obviously they didn't end up in Pittsburgh, which may have disappointed some but I really didn't expect any big splashes anyway. What Neal Huntington did end up doing was adding lower profile guys like Kevin Correia, Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz, and Joe Beimel. Nobody on that list is going to be an All Star or lead the Buccos to glory, but they should all be improvements over their predecessors and make the team better, which is really the goal for 2011 as the Bucs begin to build around their young core group. 

AVS: The Pirates have been in a weird place the last two winters; they have money to spend and they want to spend money to prove that they can, but they have a bunch of young players that need playing time. That leaves them trying to split the middle. Players like Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz and Kevin Correia are far from inspiring, but they're generally solid players that might make the Pirates better in places they need to be better, so they're not necessarily awful signings even if they won't help the Pirates make the playoffs.

C70: Between Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, who will have the better season?

RTJR: The safe bet is McCutchen, as he's been steady and productive for a year and a half now while Alvarez was struggling to figure things out for much of his time in Pittsburgh last year. If you were to ask who will have the better career, I'd be tempted to say otherwise, but McCutchen should stay ahead of Pedro this season. 

AVS: Tough to say. I've got an inkling that 2011 will be a big breakout year for McCutchen. In 2010 he mostly matched his surprising rookie numbers across the board for a full season, but he went through a mid-season swoon brought on by a shoulder injury that kept him from putting a real breakout season. That said, Alvarez has a ton of power and if he can cut down on his strikeouts, he could have a heck of a season. I'll say McCutchen for now, mostly because he's got a bit more experience and I feel more comfortable setting the bar high for him.

C70: Who will be the ace of the staff by the end of the season?

RTJR: James McDonald. He really, really impressed me after the Bucs acquired him at the deadline last season, and I'm very excited to see what he can do in a full season with his heat and filthy stuff. 

AVS: James McDonald. Partly because of the lack of competition (Ross Ohlendorf is a decent middle rotation guy and Charlie Morton is talented but incredibly flaky, as evidenced by 2010) and partly because I do think his strong finished after last season's trade deadline is a good picture of things to come. He's got a killer fastball/curveball combo and had some success with his changeup after being traded to the Pirates last year and if he can improve on that this year, the Pirates might actually have a decent #2-type starter for the first time in a long time.

C70: Is there a Pirates prospect that will make a significant impact this season?

RTJR: Probably not as significant as the past couple years. Two years ago the High-A team won their minor league title, and last year the same group won the title in AA, so the hope is that they'll do well in AAA this season and maybe get a call-up in late summer or September. The key guys in that group are mainly pitchers: Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke, and Justin Wilson. 

AVS: Left-handed starter Rudy Owens has a good chance. As mentioned above, the Pirates' rotation isn't all that great and Paul Maholm is a strong trade candidate before the July trade deadline. Owens will start the year in Triple-A and if he can handle himself there, he'll almost certainly get a call-up at some point in 2011. He's pitched fantastically the last two seasons (last year he had a 2.46 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and a 5.74 K/BB ratio in Double-A Altoona at the age of 22) but scouts are awfully divided on him, with some worried about his velocity and ability to miss bats in the Majors. That said, he's been up to every challenge so far and could probably find some success at least his first time through the National League.

C70: What's your prediction for Pittsburgh's record and divisional finish?

RTJR: The Bucs will be better this season. Not .500, but better. I'll go with 71 wins and a 4th place finish. 

AVS: Being a good blogger that likes to be evasive so that I never have to take responsibility for predictions, I'm going to equivocate. I think it's possible that the Pirates could win 75 games and pull themselves out of the cellar and into fifth place in the NL Central, but they're much more likely headed for the 68-72 win territory and probably another last place finish. Their young players (McCutchen, Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, McDonald, Owens, etc.) will help make them better than last year, I think, and they'll be better than people expect since I think a lot of people expect them to put up another 100-loss season, but they're still at least a year (and probably more than that) away from really making any noise.


1 Comments

1 Comment | Leave a comment

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martin | March 16, 2011 8:02 AM | Reply

Tabata appears to be able to handle center field. Has PBC given any thought to moving McCutchen to SS?

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
Jason Motte (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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