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Cardinals: Momentum Killers

Posted on October 11, 2011 at 6:36 AM
Filed Under: Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals
I wrote back in August, after an Edwin Jackson start in Milwaukee even, that the Cardinals had no concept of momentum.  Thankfully, in some ways they still don't.

The Cardinals--and more directly, Albert Pujols--made sure to stop Milwaukee's momentum before it started, crushing the Brewers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series 12-3.  Albert got it started right, smashing a two-run home run in the first inning.  Jackson kept the Brewers off the board, Albert and others piled on, and this game got out of control in a hurry.

Obviously, every Cardinal fan owes a debt of thanks to Derrick Goold.  Derrick's line of questioning after Game 1 and his article in relation to that seemed to stir up Albert and I think a lot of us know that when Albert gets stirred up, good things can happen.  It's one of the things that makes Albert such an amazing ballplayer.

With all the big hits and runs driven in, it's somewhat easy to overlook that this was the same heads-up Pujols that we are used to seeing.  I'm not sure everyone would have scored on that wild pitch from Shaun Marcum, especially not a big guy like Pujols.  We know, though, that he's an aggressive and fearless base runner and it got the Cards another run, a run that for a while looked like it was going to be necessary.

Someone on Twitter (and I'm not sure who it was right now) made the point that even though everyone's talking about how a good postseason could raise Pujols's contract price in the offseason, that seems to be a bit strange.  Pujols has put up an historic career, so a good postseason is going to be raising his price?  I mean, I guess in theory after an "off year" (which most players would still take in a heartbeat) a down postseason would give some GMs ammunition to try to come in low, but it was going to be 20-25 million a year even if Albert went 0-40 in October.  However, I don't think you are going to see Albert get any offers for 30 million per even if he literally tears open his uniform to reveal a big S on his chest.  The range for Pujols is pretty much set, I think.

It's probably not a surprise that Josh and I talked about a couple of things during Game 1, one that Pujols's average was a bit deceptive (he'd gone 4-5 in one game, but hit about .200 other than that in the NLDS) and that there'd been a lack of power in the offseason.  Always good to be that wrong that quickly, huh?  Not only did Albert have his big night, but he and David Freese went yard.  Talk about other things that just didn't carry over!

Pretty interesting to see that another thing that was different about Game 2 was that Tony La Russa didn't try to run the starter overly long.  The Cards were up 7-2, there was one out, and Ryan Braun was on second base.  This was a much lower stress situation than Game 1, when Jaime Garcia was on the ropes.  Still, TLR went to the pen, brought in Arthur Rhodes to face Prince Fielder (in shades of earlier in the season, he wasn't able to get him out) and then Lance Lynn to finish off the inning and keep the Cards rolling.  (Granted, that was helped out by a missed call at first on the inning-ending double play, but we'll take it.)

So now the series shifts to St. Louis.  A day off today (after another happy flight) and then Chris Carpenter goes up against Yovani Gallardo.  I've said a number of times before this series that Gallardo scares me more than any other Milwaukee pitcher.  I feel like he's been able to shut the Cards down and it'll take a great pitching performance to beat him.

That might not be as accurate as I feared.  Looking at the numbers, Albert's had a huge career against him, so if he's still locked in during Game 3, that could be a big weapon for the Cardinals.  Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal have good averages against him, as does Ryan Theriot.

Going through his game log, his two September outings against the Cardinals weren't so great, as he gave up three runs in six innings in Busch and the outing before that he allowed eight runs in 4.2 innings in Miller Park.  Even his August start, when the Brewers were rolling and the Cardinals hadn't come together yet, was iffy as he allowed five runs (four earned) in five innings.  Really looking at it, he had the one good start--May 7, when he carried the no-hitter late into the game and threw eight shutout innings--and that's it against the Redbirds this year.

Does that mean you take him for granted?  No, of course not.  He's still a pitcher that can dominate on a given night.  He's just not been as regularly dominant against the Cardinals as I thought he had been.

Speaking of game logs, let's take a look at Chris Carpenter's.  Since the beginning of September, Carp's had three complete game shutouts (including Game 5) and one game of eight scoreless innings out of eight appearances.  He was beaten up against Cincinnati to start this run and won a game in Pittsburgh where he gave up four runs, but on the whole he's been clicking.  I don't figure he'll throw a shutout, but if the offense is clicking, he won't have to.

If the Cards are able to win Game 3, and I feel even better about their chances after writing this post, things are really lined up for them well.  Randy Wolf has struggled, and though he limited the Cards to one run his last time out, they got to him for six runs in five innings the time before that.  Kyle Lohse has pitched well on long rest this last six weeks, so the Cards have the advantage there.  Then in Game 5, they'd have Garcia going at home, which is always good, against Zack Greinke who they were able to touch well in Game 1 in a losing cause.

No predictions or guarantees--the Cards could drop any of these games without it being a major surprise--but it's at least reasonably possible the next time the Cards get on a plane, it'll be to Game 3 of the World Series.  Here's hoping!
 
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WilliaminMaine | October 11, 2011 8:29 AM | Reply

Got to give TLR props last night. He pulled Jackson at just the right time when the Brewers still had a chance to make it a game. Perfect timing there.

All the talk about Pujols increasing his value in the post season is stupid. If you want to know his value, just look at his baseball-reference.com page. Sheesh.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
Jason Motte (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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