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Cardinals Stick To The Plan

Posted on October 20, 2011 at 6:36 AM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers
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Before the World Series started, I half-jokingly laid out the plan for the Cardinals to win their 11th World Championship.

Step 1: Win Game 1 behind Chris Carpenter.
Step 2: Win Game 2, a "happy flight" game.
Step 3: Win Game 5, a Carpenter start AND a "happy flight" game.
Step 4: Win one of Game 6 or Game 7 at home.


After a series where the starters had nothing and the bullpen reigned supreme, a little more baseball order was restored on a very cold night in St. Louis.  The temperatures and the moisture in the air might have helped keep balls in the ball park, but there's no doubt that Carpenter had the stuff you expect out of your ace.  He made one mistake, a ball that got up to Mike Napoli, who turned on it and roped it down the line for a two-run home run.  Other than that, he kept the fearsome Texas offense in check, getting numerous groundballs and never letting Texas really threaten a big inning.

Then, just like in the NLCS, Tony La Russa made exactly the right moves.  He pulled Carpenter in the top of the seventh and sent Allen Craig up with two on and two out.  All Craig did was plate the winning run and, if the ball hadn't bounced just the right way on Nelson Cruz, could have added a run or two of insurance as well.  The bullpen was lights out again, with only Fernando Salas stumbling a bit (allowing a walk and a hit), but Marc Rzepczynski struck out both batters he faced with two on and one out in the seventh to keep the score at 3-2.

There were a lot of positive signs coming out of this game.  There were still the good at-bats that we've seen most of the last two months.  The Cardinals hit the ball hard at times off of C.J. Wilson and the Texas bullpen, even if they didn't always have something to show for it.  For example, David Freese roped one to center that looked like it'd have gone out of the ballpark if the temperature had been about 65 instead of 45.  Late in the game Rafael Furcal hit one that got the crowd excited as well before Cruz ran it down right at the warning track.

However, Cardinal fans can't start planning parade routes just yet.  The Cardinals really had to win this game and they did.  Texas probably didn't have to win it to get a title.  There is still some significant work to be done and hopefully Jaime Garcia is up to the task.

Plus, how will the Cardinals react to actually having a lead after the first game of a series?  The stats show that the team that wins Game 1 wins the Series 19 of the last 23 times.  Since 1993, the home team winning Game 1 and the World Series winner have been one and the same.  However, there were similar stats for the NLDS and the NLCS and the Cards bucked them.  There's no reason why Texas can't buck them in this Series.

Granted, I like where the Cardinals are sitting now, I liked how they played last night, and I'd much rather be up one game than down one game.  I just don't think we can get all that comfortable yet, even if they are sticking to the plan.  A Game 2 victory would help me feel much more secure.

What are the odds of that?  Well, it is Jaime Garcia at home and we know how effective he's been there.  Looking at the Rangers' overall stats, it doesn't look like there is much difference between how Texas hits lefthanders vs. how they hit righthanders.  However, they are a significantly less powerful team on the road, so the Cards have that going for them.

We'll probably hear a lot about how the Rangers' Game 2 pitcher, Colby Lewis, is the inverse of Garcia, how he's much better on the road than at home.  It's a true statement--teams slug 100 points less against him when he's not in Arlington.  That's probably because he's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher (GB/FB 0.70).  Those balls are not likely to carry in a cold Busch Stadium either, so the Cards are going to have to hit line drives and grounders through the infield to win this one.  (Lewis does have a really cool birthday, something I'm pretty sure Christine Coleman will agree with me on.)

I like the Cards' chances in this one and would really like to go to Texas up 2-0.  Let's make that happen, Redbirds.

Couple of quick notes before I wrap this up.  First off, you can see my response to KMOV's inquiry about what the Cards have to do to win the Series over here.  Secondly, I do want to note that I have a short baseball/religious metaphor coming this afternoon.  If you are not a Christian and don't care to read about things like that, you may want to skip it.  It's not deep and it's not preachy, but just wanted to give fair warning.

Game time is 7:05 tonight.  Let's hope for the same results as last night!

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
Jason Motte (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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