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Examining The Pitching Options

Posted on June 2, 2010 at 11:31 AM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals
As I said in the main post this morning, I had spent a little discussion time on the possibility of the Cardinals acquiring a pitcher before technical difficulties intervened.  Since this is a free-form blog, allowing the publication of more than one post a day and no limits on length (short or long), I thought I'd take those comments and elaborate a bit more for another post.

The starting point is Kyle Lohse's injury, really.  Lohse had surgery over the weekend and everything seems to have gone well, but even at best you are looking at two months or more of him out of the rotation.  There's even a strong chance he won't be back this year at all.

At the moment, the Cardinals have three rookie pitchers in the rotation.  That will decrease soon when Brad Penny returns, but using two rookies for a team that has a "win-now" mentality isn't exactly optimal.  So there's a likelihood that St. Louis is at least knocking on doors and checking prices to see what it'd take to bring a more veteran arm into the fold.

For reference, let's use Derrick Goold's listing of seven pitchers that the Cardinals might have interest in.  That doesn't include Roy Oswalt, but does include Dontrelle Willis, who was traded yesterday by the Tigers to the Diamondbacks after being designated for assignment.  So we still have seven possibilities.  We'll list them in my personal order, from least to greatest.

Braden Looper.  Is he really an option?  Sure, he's available, he's cheap, he's had success in St. Louis, he's a veteran, and he's worked well with Dave Duncan before.  That's all well and good, but at best he was usually adequate in St. Louis and at times not even that.  He's two years removed from his Cardinal days after a fairly unimpressive year in Milwaukee.  He might give a bit more stability and consistency in the fifth slot than PJ Walters or Adam Ottavino, but odds are the rookies can do just as well and at times outshine anything he could bring to the table.  With the return of Aaron Miles, you can't completely rule this out, but I think the front office is smarter than to go in this direction.

Pedro Martinez.  We remember that he did very well for the Phillies down the stretch last year and he's been one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation.  That said, Pedro's also 38 and only threw 45 innings last year.  Do the Cardinals really just need a five inning pitcher, if that?  Adding to that the injury risk and there's a significant chance this acquisition would cause more harm than good.  He's a better option than Looper, but that's not exactly saying much.

Kevin Millwood.  Remember when he was that up and coming Braves pitcher?  Millwood has bounced around since then and now resides in Baltimore, where he's 0-5 with a 3.89 ERA for a team that's going nowhere in the AL East.  For the most part, Millwood's been a consistent three/four starter over his career.  He's in the last year of his contract, though I don't know that he'll be a Type A free agent in the fall.  Baltimore has to get something out of him, and it's rumored that the Mets are inquiring already.  

A shift to the NL could only help him, but I notice that his current SO/9 rate is a little higher than his recent career levels.  If that comes back down, that's just another hit or two and suddenly the numbers don't look that great.  Millwood might be an interesting project to team with Dave Duncan, but I'm not sure that he'd be worth what the Cards would have to give up for him.  I'm not against them trading prospects, but I think I'd want more of a sure thing for what Millwood's likely to go for.

Ben Sheets.  Most of us still have memories of that Sheets curveball working for the Brewers, often when he was taking on the Redbirds.  Sheets signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the A's in the offseason and most everyone expected Oakland to try to flip him at the deadline.  However, Oakland is now tied with Texas for the divisional lead, so they may be less likely to shop Sheets around.

There are the usual caveats when dealing with Oakland.  We well remember the last big pitcher the Cardinals obtained from the Athletics, though the most recent deal involving Matt Holliday worked out a little better.  Still, Oakland is likely to demand quite a bit for a guy that has a 4.91 ERA currently and has a significant injury history to boot.  That said, Sheets is dominant when healthy and his ERA is a bit skewed from a couple of bad outings.  I wouldn't mind seeing him in Cardinal red, but I'm afraid that the cost will be too much, especially when he could break down at any moment.

Jake Westbrook.  Westbrook has been in the Cardinals' sights for a while, since he seems to be one of those guys that Duncan would really enjoy.  He's a groundball specialist who has put up reasonable numbers in the American League for a few years, though he's stepped it up this year.  I would think that he'd be looked at by a lot of other teams, so the cost in talent could be much higher than some of the others on the list.  Talent is the one point that can hurt the Cards, who have some interesting pieces, but don't have those top-notch prospects that some teams really look for.

Roy Oswalt.  Personally, I'd love to see Oswalt in St. Louis and in a world that was completely perfect, the Cards would go out and get him.  Even though Oswalt may not be the guy that he was a few years back, he's still a workhorse that can go out and dominate teams.  He's an ace on most any staff, but he'd be a three in St. Louis.  Tell me that doesn't sound good to you!

However, the situation isn't perfect.  First off, you know that Houston is going to ask for a lot for him and more so for a divisional rival.  The Cards would pretty much have to go over and above to bring him in, since any deal close that gets Oswalt out of the division would be in the Astros' interest.  Couple that with the fact that, unlike most pitchers on this list, Oswalt is under contract for next year (at $16 million) and you start getting into the Albert Pujols discussion.  The goal of the Cardinals is to clear payroll in the future, not add to it.  While Oswalt wants to come to the Gateway City and might rework his contract, I'm not sure he can rework it enough for the Redbirds.

Cliff Lee.  So now we come to the pitcher I'd most like to see with the Birds on the Bat.  Lee is an Arkansas boy who likely followed the Cardinals as he grew up.  He proved what he can do in the National League with a stellar outing with the Phillies last year when he came over from Cleveland.  He's a free agent at the end of the year and would definitely be a Type A, so that could be used to replenish any talent that is sent along to the Mariners.

So it really depends on what Seattle wants.  Are they more interested in salary relief?  If the Cardinals offered to take on all the rest of the $9 million he's owed this year, could they get by without including Shelby Miller?  Maybe some sort of deal with Jon Jay or Joe Mather, whomever wins the Walters/Ottavino audition in the next few weeks, and another arm or bat?

If Seattle is looking for top of the line talent back for Lee, the Cards aren't going to be in the hunt.  Miller doesn't need to go in any of these deals.  If not, though, I think the Birds should make a play for Lee and run out a post-season rotation of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee and Jaime Garcia, with Brad Penny ready if necessary.  How good does that sound?


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3 Comments

3 Comments | Leave a comment

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UnHoly Diver | June 2, 2010 3:11 PM | Reply

The thing about Oswalt; unless Drayton McLane has gone completely senile and/or Ed Wade is a moron, there is no way the Astros would trade him to the Cardinals. Unless they would be getting say, Albert in return. And we all know that ain't gonna happen.
I'm thinking they'll pick up a DFA somewhere along the line if a trade can't be worked out.

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Author Profile Page Cardinal70 replied to comment from UnHoly Diver | June 2, 2010 10:04 PM | Reply

So you are saying there's a good chance, then.... ;)

Yeah, I don't see Oswalt getting shipped here. That said, if the reports are true that he's only got three teams on his list and if they are really motivated to move him, their options may be less than you'd expect.

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SMS_Mike | June 3, 2010 6:01 PM | Reply

Geez, I don't like most of those options, and after getting Holliday last season I don't think the Cardinals have the prospects left they'd need to pry Oswalt or Cliff Lee away.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
Jason Motte (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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