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Looking At The NLDS

Posted on September 30, 2011 at 10:11 AM
Filed Under: Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals
The aftermath of Wednesday's excitement is still being felt.  Granted, not much on the major networks, as they seem to be pretty focused on some team from the Northeast having some sort of failure.  (I don't know, it's the American League and not really worth following.)  Still, at least locally, there's some buzz about the Redbird nine.

First off, there's some well-deserved recognition for John Mozeliak.  I said in yesterday's post how important that the Colby Rasmus trade was to this team's September run and it's nice that the players recognized that as well.  I think they were more on board with that deal than some of the fans were even from the first, not necessarily because they were down on Rasmus (which they may have been) but because they recognized the flaws on this team and that they were being filled.  While the Brewers' incredible hot August made it look like the "win-now" component of the deal wasn't going to be fulfilled, the pieces were in place for the incredible September.

It's hard to remember now all the trouble Tony La Russa went through with his shingles this year, isn't it?  Where exactly does the time go?  It seems like we were just talking about how this was a problem, then how Tony had lost the team and maybe a change was needed.  Apparently, all ideas of shaking things up were a bit premature.  I don't think there's any doubt now that TLR is back for 2012, if there ever was any.  Even a quick exit in the NLDS won't damper what the Cards have been through in the last month.

This team is incredibly focused, as is obvious in this article from Matthew Leach as he lays out all the different obstacles this Cardinal team went through, both on and off the field.  A couple of those by themselves, especially the Adam Wainwright blow, would have ruined a lesser team.  Putting a number of them in combination should have finished off even the hardiest of contestants.  However, this Redbird team never gave up, plugged along, and now are reaping the benefits.

Of course, those benefits include a trip to Philadelphia and a chance to face the most dominating pitching staff in modern times.  So, you know, pretty much par for the course.

The rotation has been announced and it will be Kyle Lohse in Game 1, Edwin Jackson in Game 2, Chris Carpenter back home for Game 3.  Most likely you'd have Jaime Garcia in Game 4 and then Lohse again in Game 5.

I think that's the way I would have put them as well, given the fact that you couldn't start Carpenter in the first game.  That said, it's a bit interesting that Garcia and Jackson weren't flipped.  Of course, Garcia has been very good at home and struggled on the road a lot of the season.  His ERA at Busch is two runs better than his road one and by just about every measure (save strikeout rates, which are for some reason better out of town), so the logic definitely is having him pitch under the Arch.  (Side note: looking at some of his splits, did you know he has a 1.85 ERA in games he wins, a 3.52 ERA in games where he gets a no-decision, and a 7.51 ERA in games he loses?  When it goes south for him, it really goes south.)

The only drawback I see to Garcia going in Game 4 is the fact that, if the Phillies are up 2-1 at that point, it's an elimination game, and I think all of us know that there are questions about Garcia's mental toughness at times.  Can he handle that kind of pressure?  Can he comport himself if an error allows a run, or will it be another flash fire?

Garcia did throw seven strong innings in Philadelphia just three starts ago, but you have to go back to July to see similar results away from Busch.  I understand it and it makes complete sense, especially since Jackson is pitching so well right now also, but I can see the potential fly in the ointment.

As far as I know, the roster configuration hasn't been announced yet.  It's probably not too hard to guess it, though.  Here's what I'd do and I expect it'll be pretty accurate.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Gerald Laird

Backup catcher is pretty much meaningless here, since Molina will play every inning unless he gets hurt and odds are Tony won't pinch-hit with his catcher.  Plus there's no other option, as Tony Cruz only got three at bats in September.

Infield: Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Rafael Furcal, David Freese, Daniel Descalso, Ryan Theriot, Nick Punto

Last I heard about Furcal, he's still day to day.  I hate to go into Philadelphia with a 24 (or 23, depending on the outfield situation) man roster, but if Furcal really thinks he can go, he'll be on there.  If for some reason he's not going to be ready for a week, leave him off, put Tyler Greene in there and then swap them for the NLCS if necessary.

Outfield: Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, Adron Chambers

I honestly expect they'll take Corey Patterson instead of Chambers, but they really shouldn't. Chambers has just as much speed as Patterson, can play probably about as adequate of a center field if not moreso, and can hit better than Patterson can right now.  All Patterson gives you is experience, but even that's limited--he was with the 2003 Cubs and that seems to be the only time he played in October.  And Cub experience in October--especially THAT October--may not be exactly what you want on the club.

Matt Holliday is already been ruled out of the first game.  I'd say that if it doesn't look like he can go, keep him off and you could definitely get Chambers in.  However, from what Al was saying on the last broadcast, it was more of a fielding issue than a hitting one, so you'd like to have him on the bench as a weapon for the late innings if that's the case.

Starters: Lohse, Jackson, Carpenter, Garcia

We'll get to Lohse in a bit as we look at Game 1.  Talked about Jackson and Garcia and what else needs to be said about Mr. Carpenter?

Relievers: Jason Motte, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Fernando Salas, Arthur Rhodes, Kyle McClellan, Eduardo Sanchez

I expect Sanchez will be removed for Jake Westbrook, though I'm not sure I see any reason for that besides honoring Westbrook for being on the team.  He's obviously not going to start any games and I don't know how well he'd work out of the bullpen.  Sanchez is a bullpen member that hasn't been worn out, but obviously still has his stuff as we saw on Tuesday night.  Having that card up your sleeve for the late innings could be huge.

Tough to lose Mitchell Boggs, because I think he could make a difference as well, but I think looking at his usage patterns, Tony and company don't fully trust him and they've got to be able to do that with those on the roster.

So, Lohse against Roy Halladay.  While it looks like a huge mismatch, when you look at the current run Lohse is on, it's not quite as much.  Since his meltdown against the Dodgers at the lowest part of the season, he's gone out there five times, won four of them, and posted a 1.72 ERA.  If he can keep that up, and when you factor in how he pitched at the beginning of the season as well, it's not unreasonable to think that the Cards can hang with the Phillies in a low-scoring affair.

In that stretch, Lohse gave up one unearned run in over seven innings in Philadelphia, so it's not like he was beating up on weak teams.  On the flip side, that does mean that the Phillies have him fairly fresh in their minds.  Here are the career numbers:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Hunter Pence 43 41 13 2 1 0 2 2 8 .317 .349 .415 .763 0 0 2
Raul Ibanez 38 33 9 0 0 3 9 4 4 .273 .342 .545 .888 0 0 2
Placido Polanco 30 28 10 0 0 0 3 1 2 .357 .400 .357 .757 0 1 2
Jimmy Rollins 30 27 5 0 0 1 1 3 2 .185 .267 .296 .563 0 0 1
Chase Utley 28 24 4 1 0 0 1 3 3 .167 .286 .208 .494 0 1 0
Shane Victorino 25 24 5 2 0 0 0 1 2 .208 .240 .292 .532 0 0 1
Ryan Howard 20 16 8 0 0 2 8 4 5 .500 .600 .875 1.475 0 0 0
Carlos Ruiz 20 20 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250 .250 .300 .550 0 0 0
Brian Schneider 14 13 4 3 0 1 3 1 3 .308 .357 .769 1.126 0 0 0
Ross Gload 11 8 3 1 0 0 2 2 1 .375 .455 .500 .955 0 0 0
Roy Oswalt 11 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 .143 .143 .286 .429 0 0 0
John Bowker 5 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 .250 .400 1.000 1.400 1 0 0
Roy Halladay 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Wilson Valdez 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .250 .400 .250 .650 0 0 0
Domonic Brown 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Ben Francisco 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 1
Cliff Lee 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 1
Joe Blanton 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Cole Hamels 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0
Brandon Moss 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Pete Orr 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 300 268 70 11 1 8 31 23 41 .261 .322 .399 .721 1 2 10
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/30/2011.

Hunter Pence and Placido Polanco are trouble and Ryan Howard's had a lot of success, but hopefully he's able to work around those guys and keep other Phillies off the basepaths.

He's going to have to because Halladay is always a handful.  Remember (and Cincinnati fans will never forget) his career numbers in the NLDS are: 1-0, 0 runs, 0 hits.  I will go out on a limb and say that the Cardinals break into at least one of those 0 columns.  They were able to beat him in Philly during that late series (he opposed Lohse in that game as well), in part by jumping on him early.  I also remember Halladay saying after the game that he'd "remember that," which just sounds ominous coming from a player like him.

Anyway, here are the career numbers for the Cardinal hitters:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Gerald Laird 23 23 6 0 0 0 3 0 6 .261 .261 .261 .522 0 0 0
Corey Patterson 23 23 8 1 0 0 1 0 3 .348 .348 .391 .739 0 0 1
Nick Punto 17 14 4 0 0 0 1 2 4 .286 .375 .286 .661 0 0 0
Albert Pujols 12 11 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 .182 .250 .273 .523 0 0 1
Rafael Furcal 10 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .444 .778 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 .375 .444 .375 .819 0 0 0
Ryan Theriot 9 7 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 .143 .333 .143 .476 0 0 0
Jon Jay 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0
Lance Berkman 7 5 2 0 0 1 2 2 0 .400 .571 1.000 1.571 2 0 0
Matt Holliday 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .167 .286 .167 .452 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .500 .833 0 0 0
Yadier Molina 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0
Allen Craig 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Kyle Lohse 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0
David Freese 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .333 .000 .333 0 0 0
Tyler Greene 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0
Edwin Jackson 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Kyle McClellan 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 154 142 36 5 0 1 10 10 26 .254 .303 .310 .612 2 0 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/30/2011.

I sincerely hope Patterson's success doesn't get him the nod to make the roster (and even TLR isn't crazy enough to start him in a game like this based on those numbers). Patterson has one groundout in the last three years against Halladay, so it's not relevant at all.

Albert has struggled against Halladay, but hopefully he can come up big in the postseason.  We could say that about almost all of them, though, couldn't we?  Should be a fun one on Saturday!

On a sad note, Dan McLaughlin was arrested again this weekend on DWI charges, including leaving the scene of an accident.  Dan was more than gracious with his time when I got to talk with him last year and, honestly, this year's rotation of on-air guys has made me miss the days of him and Al Hrabosky on there regularly.  I know that there were some comments that he made that indicated he wasn't really thrilled with the cutback in his work schedule, which you can well understand.

This, though, as it comes on the heels of his arrest last year, may be the final straw for him at Fox Sports Midwest.  I don't know that at all--this is pure speculation on my part, not anything I've heard from people that might know--but it's tough to swallow that this happened again.  

On the flip side of that, Dan has been with the company for 14 years and he's developed into a guy that gets some national work as well.  It's also not just as easy as dropping him and going with Rick Horton and Al as the full time team.  (At least, I hope it's not--that would be brutal for me personally.)  You'd probably have to get a professional in the mix, someone with a broadcasting background instead of a playing background, so you'd have to go out and find a guy like that as well.

Still, the easy thing isn't always the right thing.  FSMW has a tough decision to make and I don't envy those that have to do it.  I hope that, no matter how the situation gets resolved, Dan can find whatever counseling or rehab that he needs to make sure that this never happens again.  He was lucky this time that his accident was of the one-car variety and no one was hurt.  There's no guarantee that would happen the next time.

Don't know if I'll be back posting this weekend or not, so if not enjoy the games and you can find me on Twitter, most likely.  I do plan on recording the next Conversation With C70 on Saturday, so if I can get it all edited up you'll have that to look forward to!

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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