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Nailing the Coffin

Posted on August 17, 2011 at 6:45 AM
Filed Under: Heroes and Goats | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals
 It's strange seeing the season end in mid-August.

Even last year, with a team that faded down the stretch, there was that sweep in Cincinnati August 9-11 that put the Cardinals briefly back into first place.  That was the high water mark and they hit some rough baseball immediately after, but they still were in contention.  (Of course, by the end of the month they were seven games behind the Reds and the reeds of hope were awfully thin.)

After games of August 16, here's where the Cards have stood the past few years:

2006 +1.5
2007 -2.5
2008 -6.5
2009 +5
2010 -1
2011 -7

Even though they were almost as far out in 2008, the Cubs were leading the division then and you still figured they were going to fall apart.  Other than that, the Cards have been in the race at this time of year for the past decade.  (I didn't check 2003, but all the other years the Cards made the playoffs.)

However, the Cards can start booking October vacations and we'll get just that much more time to talk about the Albert Pujols contract because it would take a extremely surprising run to see this team in postseason baseball.

We've talked before about how this team kills momentum, and coming out of a winning series at home against Colorado, they've done that by dropping two in Pittsburgh.  We talked about how they needed to go 5-1 on this road trip, something that can't happen now.  We've talked about the team not being able to afford to drop a Chris Carpenter start, yet they did just that last night.

Would the game have turned out different if things had gone better in the third inning?  Carpenter walks the pitcher with one out, and as Mike Shannon (and most everyone else) says, walking the pitcher always comes around to bite you.  Jose Tabata singled on a ball that I thought Rafael Furcal was going to be able to get to and turn two, but it seemed like he was shifted very close to second and was barely able to corral it before it got into the outfield. Carpenter then induces a tailor-made double play ball, made more so by the fact Xavier Paul can't get out of the batter's box without falling, but Skip Schumaker boots it and just gets the one out.  Then Carpenter throws a lollipop curve to Andrew McCutchen and McCutchen doesn't miss those.

What if Schumaker turns the double play?  What if Carpenter gets the pitcher?  Would the game have turned out the same from that point forward?  We don't know, but it's frustrating to think about.

Nothing is more frustrating than the way the game ended, though.  Matt Holliday gets a sacrifice fly in the ninth and the Cards have a one run lead.  All Fernando Salas has to do is get their 5-6-7 hitters.  Instead, our Goat of the game serves up a long ball to Neil Walker on his first pitch, tying the game and setting up Arthur Rhodes' failure later.

Rhodes comes in with two on in the 10th after Salas had walked one and intentionally walked another.  Now, Rhodes has allowed 4 home runs and a .323 average in 62 ABs against right-handers.  So, naturally, he comes in to face Ryan Doumit (a switch-hitter who has a much higher OPS in his more limited time as a right-handed batter) and Walker (another switch-hitter that actually does hit worse from the right side).  Not really sure why Tony La Russa went to him in that situation, save the fact that neither of them had gotten a hit of Rhodes in the past (both 0-9, but that's a pretty small sample).

And, of course, the batter that Rhodes should face, left-handed hitter Garrett Jones, takes him deep to end the game after one batter in the 11th.  Is it just asking too much for the LOOGYs to at least get lefties out?

As you can tell by this post, not a lot of positives last night.  We'll give David Freese the Hero tag for his three hits.  Jon Jay got a couple of hits from the leadoff position, so we may see him there again.  Albert got his 30th home run, hitting that part of his personal triple crown, and now needs just 24 more RBI.  However, he only went 1-4, which means that average is getting that much harder to get up to .300.

Also, Carpenter should get some attention.  Save for that rough third, at least part of which wasn't his fault, he locked the Pirates down and gave the team a chance to come back.  Seven innings, three runs, 10 strikeouts should get you a better fate, but it was not to be.

The news wasn't any better off the field yesterday, as Shelby Miller was suspended indefinitely.  If sources are to be believed, it was due to a fight with alcohol involved, something that apparently has happened before.  Hopefully that'll help Shelby get focused and straighten him out a bit.

The Cards just hope not to be swept as they go tonight in the series finale.  That might be easier said than done, though, looking at the pitching matchup.  Kyle Lohse takes the mound for the Cards and, right now, you aren't really sure what you'll get out of him, though he did pitch well last time out.  Here's what he's done against Pittsburgh:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Ryan Doumit 16 13 4 1 0 1 2 2 3 .308 .375 .615 .990 0 0 1
Ronny Cedeno 14 14 5 1 0 0 1 0 2 .357 .357 .429 .786 0 0 2
Andrew McCutchen 14 14 6 2 0 1 2 0 1 .429 .429 .786 1.214 0 0 0
Garrett Jones 13 12 3 1 0 1 3 1 1 .250 .308 .583 .891 0 0 1
Ryan Ludwick 13 12 3 0 0 0 2 1 4 .250 .308 .250 .558 0 0 0
Neil Walker 13 11 4 1 1 0 4 2 4 .364 .462 .636 1.098 0 0 0
Pedro Alvarez 11 10 4 2 0 1 4 1 3 .400 .455 .900 1.355 0 0 0
Matt Diaz 9 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 .111 .111 .222 .333 0 0 0
Charlie Morton 9 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 .143 .125 .143 .268 0 0 0
Paul Maholm 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 113 103 31 9 1 4 19 7 24 .301 .339 .524 .864 0 0 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

Not a lot of hope there. I know it's a small sample, but when as a team they are hitting .301 off of someone, it's not what you want to see. 

Paul Maholm goes for the Pirates. Cards got to him last time around but he's been tough on them in the past.
   
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Albert Pujols 43 36 21 7 0 2 8 6 1 .583 .628 .944 1.572 3 0 0
Lance Berkman 38 34 7 1 0 0 1 4 3 .206 .289 .235 .525 0 0 1
Ryan Theriot 38 33 11 5 0 0 5 4 3 .333 .405 .485 .890 0 0 2
Yadier Molina 31 27 7 1 0 0 3 4 2 .259 .355 .296 .651 0 0 3
Matt Holliday 24 22 3 0 0 2 4 2 4 .136 .208 .409 .617 0 0 2
Rafael Furcal 17 16 6 2 0 1 3 1 1 .375 .412 .688 1.099 0 0 0
Jon Jay 7 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 .167 .286 .500 .786 0 1 0
Chris Carpenter 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0
Allen Craig 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .500 .833 0 0 0
David Freese 6 5 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 .400 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 1
Corey Patterson 6 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 .167 .167 .667 .833 0 0 0
Gerald Laird 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Jake Westbrook 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 229 203 62 17 1 7 29 22 19 .305 .373 .502 .875 3 1 9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2011.

I had no idea how much Pujols liked to face him. It's not what he used to do against Zach Duke, but it's impressive nonetheless. The Cards have a good average against Maholm as well, so maybe this will be a more interesting game than I first thought.

The game will likely just be finishing up when UCB Radio Hour starts tonight.  Tara from Aaron Miles' Fastball joins me and we'll talk with Terry Rodgers, who works for the Cardinals' public relations department.  Should be a fun show, if we can keep the talk of burying the 2011 season to a minimum.  Come join us at 9:30 this evening!

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Author Profile Page Guest Author | August 17, 2011 8:17 AM | Reply

I think it all comes back to defense. I've never seen a team that was so defeated by its gloves. I watched two balls over the weekend land in fair territory in left and Holliday was nowhere. Contrast that with Carl Crawford or Brett Gardner. It all adds up for the pitching staff that has to get four or five outs three or four times a game. It's hard to do. Furcal is too little too late I'm afraid.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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