New Month, Same As The Old Month

You could hope that, with the calendar changing, perhaps old habits of lackluster offense could be put away.  However, the Cardinals carried that baggage into June as well, taking it to the extreme by struggling against a Cincinnati bullpen that was pressed into service in the second inning.

If it wasn't for Colby Rasmus, it would have been even more of a frustrating outing than it actually was.  Great to see Rasmus get into the swing of things and get that average up somewhat, though I expect he'll get today off (more on that later).  It seems like whomever hits in front of Albert Pujols is able to do something, but if you hit behind him, not so much.

Todd Wellemeyer didn't help out things either.  I thought it was going to be a good night, since he got through the first two innings unscathed.  The wheels came off in the fourth, though, and he wasn't around to see the sixth.

Still, I can't give him the Goat tag.  Some days, four runs in five innings would have done it, but with an all-around bad game like Rick Ankiel had, Wellemeyer is off the hook.  Ankiel was 0-4, two strikeouts, an error in the field and the time he did reach base (via an error) he was doubled off.  There's not too many more aspects of the game you can get wrong.

You might be able to sum up the offense in this way.  I went back and looked to see how often the Cards are able to erase a deficit in a game and how large those deficits are.  In 37 of their games, they've either gotten down and never tied the game or lead throughout. In seven games, they've rallied from a one-run hole.  In five games, they've come back from two down.  In only two games, April 17 vs. the Cubs (3 runs) and April 21 vs. the Mets (4 runs) have they put together a big come-from-behind run.  If, when you get down by three runs, the game is basically over, there's definitely something wrong with your offense.

So offense is on the mind of John Mozeliak, even with Troy Glaus's, well, encouraging isn't the right word, maybe expected will work, report yesterday.  Glaus is starting to do some throwing, but he still likely won't be back before the beginning of August.  For a team that's averaging just over three runs a game in the last three weeks, that's not going to help much.  Getting Ankiel or Ryan Ludwick on track would help, but a move has to be made, most likely, and sooner rather than later.

Things don't look much better for today's game, though, as Brad Thompson gets the nod in a fill-in role.  Thompson, who hasn't thrown in competition in two and a half weeks, worries me immensely.  Why does it worry me?  Probably the easiest way to explain it is the following numbers:

2005 1.46
2006 1.32
2007 1.04
2008 1.09
2009 0.93

That's Thompson's ground ball to fly ball ratio over the past nine years.  Thompson's biggest advantage was being able to throw the sinker, get the double play grounder, that kind of thing.  He's not doing it anymore.  Batters are able to let the sinker go by and pound the stuff up in the zone.  It's probably not a coincidence that his ERA has continually climbed as well, save this year where he has only 14 innings.

Thompson has been a little better since his demotion to the minors earlier this season.  He's posted a 2.25 ERA and a GB ratio of 1.17, but it's been in very limited time (8 innings).  Needless to say, I really think the offense needs to come through for the Cards to have a chance tonight.

Historically, Thompson's not been that bad against the Reds, though.  They've not seen too much of him (the top exposure is twelve plate appearances) but they are just hitting .204 as a team.  Then again, the Reds were hitting .150 against Wellemeyer before last night.

Bronson Arroyo has had a little more trouble with the Cardinals.  Both Pujols and Ankiel have three home runs against Arroyo, which probably gets Ankiel in the lineup.  Chris Duncan also has solid numbers against him.  Unless Tony LaRussa decides to bench Ludwick, it might be a night off for Rasmus, even with the strong game last night.


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