Number Crunching

OK, after doing the daydreaming yesterday, I thought I'd see if Santana would even fit into the budget. I was a little encouraged to hear Bill DeWitt say that they were increasing payroll by some amount anyway, but would make a significant increase for the right player. Surely, we can agree that Santana would fit that description.

Problem is, I'm not much on projections, at least salary-wise. So please let me know where you think I'm too low on any estimates. The actual numbers are taken from Cot's website.

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Pos	Player	Salary
C	Molina	2.00
C	BoBC	0.50
1B	Pujols	13.00
2B	Kennedy	3.50
3B	Rolen	12.00
SS	Ryan	0.40
INF	Miles	2.00
INF	Speizio	2.30
LF	Encarnacion	6.50
CF	Edmonds	8.00
RF	Ankiel	2.00
OF	Ludwick	0.40
OF	Schumaker	0.60
SP	Wainwright	4.00
SP	Looper	5.50
SP	Santana	13.50
SP	Thompson	0.60
SP	Pineiro	3.00
RP	Franklin	2.25
RP	Flores	1.00
RP	Johnson	0.60
RP	Kinney	0.50
RP	Springer	1.00
RP	Perez	0.40
CP	Isringhausen	8.00
DL	Mulder	6.50
DL	Carpenter	10.50
Total		110.55

OK, first off, all the numbers bolded are estimates or assumptions.  Some of which are as follows:

• I figure they'll try to lock up Molina to a long term deal this offseason, especially (as this exercise assumes) if they trade Bryan Anderson.  I was guessing a 3 year deal for $6, but that easily could go higher.  It'll be backloaded as well, most likely.


• BoBC=Brotherhood of Backup Catchers.  Maybe Bennett, maybe someone else.


• Players like Ryan, Ludwick, Schumaker, Thompson, Johnson, and Kinney are under Cardinal control and shouldn't get much of a bump from this year's salary.  I don't think any of them will be under consideration for a longer deal.


• I would think they'd look to keep Wainwright out of arbitration and buy out a few of those years.  I had $12 million over 3 years, but it might go longer or be higher (or both).  Again, though, they'd probably do some backloading.


• Wasn't sure how much Pineiro or Springer would resign for.  Gave it a rough guess.


• Didn't add any deferred money into the calculation, because I've seen discussions before that the Cardinals consider payroll what they pay out in that year, not including the amounts they set aside to pay later.


• I added Mulder and Carpenter to the payroll.  Mulder especially because he should be pitching by May.  Carpenter's contract may get covered by insurance this year, but I don't know how much would be paid by the insurance company.


• I put Encarnacion in there as well, but if he can't play, I'm sure the Cardinals will have some recourse there as well.


• Bennett and Taguchi have buyouts, but they don't total more than $25K, I don't think.

There you have it.  If this is even in the ballpark, adding Santana wouldn't do irreparable damage to the budget, at least not for 2008.  The Cardinals would definitely be going with the "studs and scrubs" philosophy, but with so many young guys able to contribute, it allows you to have people like Pujols, Carpenter and Santana on the same team.

Be sure to let me know where I'm off in the comments, and I'll rerun the numbers.

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