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Operation: Squash the Plush

Posted on October 8, 2011 at 10:11 AM
Filed Under: Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals

NLCS.jpgAfter a season of discussion about how the NL East was the best division and how weak the NL Central is, for the third time in the last eight years, two NL Central teams meet up in the NLCS, bringing all the baggage of 18 meetings with them.  (Interestingly enough, there have been 16 NLCS meetings since the wild-card was introduced.  Three times it's been all NL Central, twice it was all NL East.  Other than that, there were no rivalry games determining who gets to the World Series.)

The Cardinals and Brewers split their meetings this year, but I think looking at the situation around when these games were played might be more meaningful.  Let's take a look at the series 

May 7-9 at Milwaukee: St. Louis wins 2-1

Jaime Garcia took a perfect game into the eighth in the first game, won by the Cardinals 6-0.  The second game, which was the UCB Progressive Game Blog for the year, was almost as dominant by Yovani Gallardo.  The rubber game was won by Kyle McClellan during his strong start to the season, with the only run against him being an inherited runner allowed to score by the bullpen.  Pitching was obviously the name of the game in this series.

June 10-12 at Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 3-0

This series might have been on me, since it was part of the eight game losing streak the Cards went on while I was on vacation.  Kyle Lohse had a rough start in the first game, but the bullpen was pretty atrocious as well.  Good thing the two that pitched were Ryan Franklin and Brian Tallet, two pitchers that are no longer in the organization.  The second was during Chris Carpenter's rough part of the season, as he allowed five runs in six innings, four immediately after receiving a 2-1 lead.  Finally, there was a close 4-3 loss, which was frustrating since the Cards had a 3-0 lead in this one.  Jake Westbrook was the starter and couldn't hold it.  Westbrook will not be starting in this NLCS.

Aug 1-3 at Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 2-1

This is when the rivalry stuff really started.  The Cards drop the opener behind Carpenter, who gave up five runs in the fifth inning.  Matt Holliday hit a two-run home run in the first, but that's all that the Cardinals could muster.  Game 2...well, you remember Game 2, I'm pretty sure.  When we make a list of the great regular-season games, this extra-inning affair will be on it.  The up and in to Albert Pujols, the retaliation pitches at Ryan Braun, Yadier Molina getting ejected, Garcia hit a home run, the Cards blow a three run lead, but rally to force extra innings, this game had it all.  The third game was a bit of a letdown, as all of us that were hoping things were turning around were disappointed when the Brewers blew the doors off of Edwin Jackson, who was left to absorb a huge beating due to the bullpen usage the night before.

Aug 9-11 vs. Milwaukee: Milwaukee wins 2-1

Hard to believe, but the Brewers didn't come to St. Louis until this late in the season.  This was during the Brewers' extreme hot stretch, where the only team that could beat them was St. Louis and even that wasn't done with much regularity.  The first one was a extra-inning loss that the Cards looked to win in the ninth with Pujols up and two on with two out, but he popped out to end the threat.  The Brewers then scored two off of Octavio Dotel to win it.  The second game didn't go much better, as the Cards couldn't solve Randy Wolf and the Brewers had figured out Westbrook.  The Cards did salvage the last game, when aces Carpenter and Gallardo met and Pujols went 4-4 with a home run.

Aug 30-Sept 1 at Milwaukee: Cardinals win 3-0

Here is the first series between the two teams during the Cards' remarkable turnaround.  In the first game, Jackson put aside the memories of his disaster start in Miller Park to allow only one run in seven innings.  The revamped bullpen clicked and the Cards came away with a 2-1 win.  The second game had the remarkable appearance of a Jake Westbrook grand slam, which negated the three runs he had allowed.  Pujols hit another homer and the bullpen again was stellar.  The Cards brought the brooms to the final game in repeat fashion, with a number of things that happened in the second (AP and Rafael Furcal hitting homers in the first, a grand slam) occurring in that one as well.

Sept 5-7 vs. Milwaukee: Cardinals win 2-1

The shadows made it into public discourse after the first game.  Westbrook struck out nine and allowed three, but the Redbird bats weren't able to keep up as they only got four hits in a mid-afternoon start.  No such problem in the second game, as Kyle Lohse pitched a strong game and, even though the bullpen got touched some, the four Cardinal runs stood up.  The last game, which was a Chris Carpenter shutout (he's done that a lot recently), also brought us the easy villain, Nyjer Morgan, who threw chewing tobacco at Carpenter after Carp struck him out, also took to Twitter to continue his inane ramblings, mentioning also that he hoped those "crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha playoffs"  Dignity, maturity, spelling, Tony Plush knows not those things.

Looking at this breakdown, there are definitely some positives for St. Louis.  The Cards won five of the last six games the teams played, when they kicked into the gear they are in now.  They were able to go 6-6 in Milwaukee, which is impressive since the Brewers only lost 24 games there at all this year.  Seven of Milwaukee's nine wins either game before the trading deadline or in the immediate aftermath, before this team came together.  Plus, they beat Chris Carpenter early in the year, but they didn't do much against him late in it.

I think Cardinal fans would be much more frustrated losing to the Brewers than they would have been to the Phillies.  It's not the stakes so much as the fact that St. Louis has a team that can beat Milwaukee and they'd get a lot of joy out of doing it.

Looks like Jaime Garcia is going to go in Game 1, which is a little surprising since it's a road start, but it leaves him available to start Game 5 at home.  Teams can overcome a loss in the first game.  In the fifth, it's a little tougher.  Rumor has it Edwin Jackson is going in the second game, which would be surprising given that big blowup he had in Miller Park if he hadn't already come back from that in the venue, then Carpenter in three and Lohse in four.  I like the matchups, I like the way this team is playing.  Can they win and make it to the Series?  Surely.  Will they?  We'll find out starting Sunday afternoon.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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