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The Flame Keeps Flickering

Posted on September 12, 2011 at 6:47 AM
Filed Under: Atlanta Braves | Heroes and Goats | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals
Late rallies.  Big wins.  A Cardinal fan knows not these things.  At least, not so much until this weekend.

While there's still quite an uphill battle with not a lot of time left, the Cardinals kept themselves relevant to the postseason picture by sweeping the Braves this weekend at Busch.  St. Louis wakes up today with the standings showing them 4.5 games out of the wild card.  (They also gained a little ground on Milwaukee, but they still sit six out there.)

Let's take it game by game:

Friday (4-3 in 10 win)
Hero: Nick Punto's game-winning sacrifice fly was a nice thing, but it doesn't get to that point without Albert Pujols.  Pujols's two-run single in the ninth off of Craig Kimbrel tied it up and allowed the Cards a chance to win it in extras.  Pujols almost won it outright, but Ryan Theriot was tossed out at home.  Without actually seeing that play, I can't comment on whether that was a TOOTBLAN.  If you don't know what that acronym means in relation to Theriot, do a Google search.

Goat: Guess it has to go to Jon Jay, because he was the only starter that didn't get a hit.  Jay's been on a run as of late, but everyone has games like that.  Got to be frustrating to do it on a night when most everyone else is clicking, though.

Notes: This was a game that really impressed me.  So often this year, the Cardinals have gone into a series with momentum but also with purpose and just come out flat.  To win this game was big enough, but to rally in the ninth with two outs off of one of the better closers in baseball this year?  That's huge.  That's the kinda thing that makes you believe.

As for performances, Lance Berkman had a three hit night and is starting to swing the bat better.  Edwin Jackson continued to work out of trouble and, though he only went six, just allowed to runs.  The bullpen, on the whole, did an excellent job of keeping the game right where it was at.

Saturday (4-3 win)
Hero: Lance Berkman.  A two hit day with a walk, a run and an RBI is a pretty solid job all the way around.

Goat: Again, Jon Jay was the only starter that didn't get a hit or a walk.  Tough couple of games for Jay, though he rebounded Sunday with two hits.

Notes: Jaime Garcia got pulled after just 74 pitches, but he went six and was good enough, though he was staked to a 4-0 lead and just about gave it all back.  The bullpen, again, was solid, allowing no runs in three innings as a combination of Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas and Jason Motte slammed the door.

Hero: Yadier Molina.  Three hits and three RBI make for a pretty solid day for anybody.  While he was thrown out at third looking for a triple, his bases-loaded double in the third pretty much put the game away.

Goat: Rafael Furcal.  A 0-4 in the leadoff slot, though Furcal has been hitting better lately.

Notes: After getting a five run lead, Jake Westbrook came back out in the fourth and put a lot of Braves on bases, looking like he was going to give a good portion of it back.  Instead, he was able to get out of the jam, keep the game scoreless, and keep the momentum with the Cards.  He only went 5.1 innings as Tony La Russa really relied on the bullpen this weekend, but it was enough.

Motte had himself a nice weekend.  A win on Friday and saves on Saturday and Sunday, and he got Sunday's by striking out the side.

This weekend showed that, if this team had been around all year, the Cardinals would have been in much better shape.  Take only the bullpen for an example.  The pen pitched 10.2 innings, allowed two runs, struck out ten and walked only one.  Such a difference from the beginning of the year, when every time the bullpen door opened, it was an adventure.  Motte seems to be settling in as closer (though he's probably not available tonight in Pittsburgh after going three straight days) and the rest of the pieces are also falling into place.

And if all that news wasn't good enough for this weekend, it appears that the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter have agreed on a contract extension.  According to Joe Strauss, it's a $21 million/2 year deal, which means that next season's $15 million option goes away and the Cards save about $4 million.  That'll be big when it comes to squeezing Pujols into the picture.

I think this is a pretty good move by the front office and one that most people have been expecting and advocating for quite some time.  Carpenter obviously is not what he used to be, but only because he can't reach those heights as consistently as he has in the past.  He still can be a dominant pitcher on any given night and even the nights when he's not on his game, he usually competes and can keep the team close.

He's been healthy for the second straight year, so there's not a huge concern there, at least not more than any other pitcher at his age.  After his rough start, he's got a 3.75 ERA and nine wins, which on the face of it looks pretty good.  I look forward to Pip's more in-depth analysis to see whether the detailed numbers make this look as good as the traditional ones do.  There's still a lot of business to do for John Mozeliak, but this is a good start.

If you are scoreboard watching, Atlanta hosts Florida today (Chris Volstad for the Fish, Brandon Beachy for the Braves) while Milwaukee is off.  The Cards go into Pittsburgh, hoping to better than the last time they visited, when they lost two of three.

Kyle Lohse goes for the Cards.  He won the last time he faced the Pirates, but he gave up four runs (two earned) in just five innings.  That's not exactly what we'd like to see tonight.  His career numbers:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Derrek Lee 26 25 10 3 0 2 5 1 7 .400 .423 .760 1.183 0 0 0
Andrew McCutchen 20 20 8 2 0 1 3 0 2 .400 .400 .650 1.050 0 0 0
Ronny Cedeno 19 19 8 2 0 0 2 0 2 .421 .421 .526 .947 0 0 2
Ryan Doumit 19 16 4 1 0 1 2 2 3 .250 .316 .500 .816 0 0 1
Garrett Jones 18 17 4 2 0 1 3 1 2 .235 .278 .529 .807 0 0 2
Neil Walker 18 14 4 1 1 0 4 4 6 .286 .444 .500 .944 0 0 0
Jose Tabata 17 15 7 0 1 1 4 1 2 .467 .500 .800 1.300 0 0 0
Ryan Ludwick 16 15 3 0 0 0 2 1 6 .200 .250 .200 .450 0 0 0
Pedro Alvarez 11 10 4 2 0 1 4 1 3 .400 .455 .900 1.355 0 0 0
Charlie Morton 9 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 .143 .125 .143 .268 0 0 0
Chase d'Arnaud 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0
Alex Presley 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500 1.167 0 0 0
Brandon Wood 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Josh Harrison 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 1
Jeff Karstens 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Michael McKenry 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 0
Xavier Paul 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 189 173 57 16 2 7 31 12 39 .329 .369 .566 .935 0 0 6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2011.

He'll have to be careful with Derrek Lee and Andrew McCutchen, but who doesn't? A few other Pirates have done well against Lohse as well. The Cards may have to work to get to six in a row. 

Brad Lincoln is going for the Pirates. He pitched six scoreless innings against St. Louis last time he faced them, his only start against the Birds this year. Career numbers:
 
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Lance Berkman 6 5 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 .200 .333 .800 1.133 0 0 0
Rafael Furcal 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Jon Jay 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Albert Pujols 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 3 3 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667 0 0 1
Yadier Molina 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0
Allen Craig 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1.000 1.000 2.500 3.500 0 0 0
Chris Carpenter 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
David Freese 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Tyler Greene 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Kyle Lohse 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Corey Patterson 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Ryan Theriot 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 0 0 0
Total 39 38 12 2 0 2 7 1 5 .316 .333 .526 .860 0 0 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/12/2011.

Allen Craig may get a start as he's 2-2 against Lincoln. Daniel Descalso has also done well in a small sample, but that's about it.

Cards are really just on the fringes of the race, but a win tonight and a Braves loss and those fringes become much, much more substantial.


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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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