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The Molina Quandry

Posted on February 10, 2012 at 7:32 AM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals
I wasn't sure that anything could overshadow Adam Wainwright getting back on the mound, but Yadier Molina giving a good interview about the past, present and future pretty much did it.

Molina, as will be pointed out numerous times this spring, is in the same position that his good friend Albert Pujols was in--a homegrown veteran and pillar of the clubhouse in the last year of his contract and potentially heading toward free agency.  While there are obvious differences relating to the scope and impact of that situation, the rough outlines are the same.  So can we expect Molinageddon?

It doesn't sound like it, as he says he's open to talking about it during the season, which means no spring training deadlines and no press conferences on the first day.  Yadi also is being more open in the press, saying that he'd like to stay in St. Louis, but it's a business, something reinforced by watching Pujols last season.

Let me preface this by saying I'm a big Molina fan.  I've rooted for him for a long time, I've often wanted him up rather than others (sometimes even Pujols) in the proper situation, I've defended him here and other places.  Plus he's one of my son's favorite players--he even has a Molina jersey for his Build-A-Bear.  I'd love to see Yadi be one of those long-time Cardinals and get into that niche in team history that players like Willie McGee have created as beloved favorites of the fan base.

But..............

There's a reason this whole thing isn't easy.  A catcher with the wear and tear that Molina has becomes a problem to project out.  Can he stay healthy?  Will he stay effective?  Molina doesn't have that "all-time icon" status that would cushion the club in case he wasn't able to be as productive at the end of the contract.  He's piled up a lot of innings in the last few years--at some time that debt is going to be paid.

Right now, his top comparison at Baseball-Reference is Tim McCarver.  Comparisons like that are more likely in the realm of Bob, Mark and Tyler, but if Molina's looking for a four-year extension, that would cover his 30-34 years.  McCarver bounced around a lot in that stretch of his career--Philadelphia to Montreal, back to St. Louis, to Boston and then finally back to Philadelphia--and in that time played just shy of 400 games, which would average out to 100 a season.  Even that would be a downturn for Molina, but it might more telling that that average was affected by playing only 85 and 59 the last two years.  He played another five years in the league after that contract, but never cracked 100 again.

That's my biggest problem with any Molina contract.  I don't worry too much about his hitting--it might decline toward the end of the deal, but given the limited expectations of catchers, I think he'd be OK.  The problem is going to be whether he can stay on the field or not.  In the last four years, he's finished second, first, second and first in games played as a catcher.  We all remember him catching the 20-inning game of two years ago, then coming back and catching the next day.  That's going to take a toll sometime.

Molina admits that this is a business decision on both sides.  He's seen that the club didn't retain Pujols, and while he says he'll miss his friend, that isn't going to affect him in the way we might expect, that he's ready to jump ship and head out to Anaheim.  Molina is keeping a level head about things and being pragmatic, which you can't blame him for.  At least he's never said he wants to be a Cardinal for life, so he's got that going for him if he does move on.

The Cards will probably spend some time trying to figure out what they have in Tony Cruz and Bryan Anderson this spring and, if an extension doesn't get done, this summer.  With no ready replacements for Molina, to keep this club in contention John Mozeliak may have to pay him more than he'd like.  If they are comfortable with someone else behind the plate, that gives the GM just one more card to play and allows him to do as he did with Pujols and with Roy Oswalt (so far)--stand firm.

Keep reading and we'll talk about more upbeat stuff!


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Wainwright was on the mound yesterday, with Cruz catching and players such as Tyler Greene and former Redbird Rick Ankiel standing in against him.  By his own estimation, Wainwright threw at 80-90% effort and was dominating the strike zone with his breaking pitches.  Staying down in the zone, he frustrated the hitters, so much so that Ankiel begged for him to make a mistake.

Derek Lilliquist was watching, of course, and stated that he didn't see any reason why Wainwright wouldn't be on the same program that all the other starters were on in the spring.  That means no extra rest, no juggling the rotation to give him more days off.  The only thing left for Wainwright to do is build arm strength, and he can really only do that by throwing.  It's music to this Cardinal fan's ears.

Wainwright really is the key to this season.  Then again, we though the loss of him was going to be the key to last season and we see how that turned out.  As much fun as the huge comeback was, I'd have liked having Waino in the rotation, seeing if he couldn't have stopped some of those losing streaks and perhaps made September not quite as stressful.

We know that the Cards are going to score less than they did last year--well, we think we know that.  Last year the offense was at the top of the National League, so they have no place to go but down.  And even though Carlos Beltran will pick up a lot of Pujols's slack, you have to expect Berkman to slide some and Molina as well.  Whether Matt Holliday can improve on already good numbers or David Freese can stay healthy and productive all year remains to be seen.

That means that pitching is likely going to be even more of a focus in 2012 than it was in 2011.  And that means that Wainwright plays a large role.  Getting him back gives a mental boost to the club as well as the obvious payoff when he's on the field.

Finally, you remember that the Cards opened up a virtual Hall of Fame recently.  (The press release with the link often repeated is here.)  However, seeing the stuff on line just isn't quite the same as seeing it in person, which is why I was particularly excited to see that not only is the Cardinal Hall of Fame taking some of that stuff on the road, but they are starting an hour away from me in Little Rock.

Normally, I wouldn't make a point of going to the Clinton Library, but baseball trumps politics (as noted by @johnwhardin and I being friends!)  The library is selling $10 season passes to the exhibit, so I'll be buying one of those soon and taking the family down to see it (and then probably going myself again later!)

Just another week left with no baseball.  The end is near!

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Yadier Molina (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Rafael Furcal (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Tyler Greene (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Fernando Salas (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
J.C. Romero (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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