Blogs By FansC70 At The Bat

Baseball Schedule is your best source for the latest St Louis Cardinals Schedule information as well as keeping up with division rivals including Cubs Schedule, Reds Schedule, Brewers Schedule and Astros Schedule.

Bet on the Cardinals with Sports Interaction's MLB betting lines

Slots Galore Casino Tournaments

Get your tickets from Bubba! Cheap St. Louis Cardinals Tickets and more, including tickets for the next MLB All-Star Game. Bubba's got Boston Red Sox Tickets and New York Yankees Tickets

RSS Feed




Alliance tickets has an extensive inventory of St. Louis Cardinals Tickets , Colorado Rockies Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and Seattle MarinersTickets.

With all of the St Louis tickets out there, Cardinals tickets and Rams tickets make for great presents. can fill all of your sports tickets needs, just check out our testimonials

The Rest of the PECOTA Story

Posted on October 27, 2007 at 12:00 AM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals

Earlier, I compared the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA numbers and the community projections by Viva El Birdos and CardsClubhouse to the actual stats of some of the Cardinals. The ones in the previous post were players that had already been shut down for the year. With the season well over now, it's time to reflect on the others that we projected before the season began.

Jim Edmonds

CCH 427 73 117 25 1 24 82 64 .274 .369 .506
VEB 425 79 116 21 1 25 86 69 .273 .375 .504
PECOTA   62   19 1 21 65 59 .253 .358 .482
Actual 365 39 92 15 2 12 53 41 .252 .325 .403

Edmonds, like most every player on the Cardinals, battled injuries throughout the year. The extent of his offseason surgery was probably underplayed in the minds of the Cardinal projectors, as Edmonds never quite got his groove on in 2007.

Edmonds is the only hitter that was left (surprisingly, we didn't do Mr. Pujols, probably figuring it was too easy!), but there are three pitchers left to examine.

Scroll Down to Continue Reading

Kip Wells

CCH 165.0 162 72 115 18 12 10 82 4.47 1.42
VEB 171.0 173 68 121 19 12 10   4.45 1.41
PECOTA 104.1 110 46 66 12 5 7   4.78 1.50
Actual 162.2 186 78 122 19 7 17 103 5.70 1.62

Anyone that's read this blog for very long knows that, at least for a while, Wells was not as bad as these numbers suggest. The middle of the season was pretty good for him. The beginning and end, well, not so much. Wells's gamble on signing a one-year contract to build up his value didn't really pan out and he should be elsewhere come next April.

Jason Isringhausen

CCH 58.2 45 27 56 5 2 3 36 6 19 2.91 1.23
PECOTA 58.1 52 30 49 6 3 4 20     3.77 1.39
Actual 65.1 42 28 54 4 4 0 32 2 18 2.48 1.07

One of the unheralded stories of the 2007 season was the return to form of Jason Isringhausen. After an '06 so bad that people booed him and his season ended early (meaning that Adam Wainwright was the last pitcher to throw a pitch last year), he bounced back better than most anyone expected. If the team hadn't played so many blowout games (whether wins or losses), his save totals might have been a bit higher. Picking up his option this offseason was really a no-brainer.

Adam Wainwright

CCH 169.0 160 65 148 19 13 10 1 0 78 4.15 1.33
VEB 172.0 168 56 142 18 13 8       4.06 1.30
PECOTA 148.2 151 50 119 19 9 9 0     4.44 1.35
Actual 202.0 212 70 136 13 14 12     83 3.70 1.40

As bad as 2006 was, it would have been so much worse if Wainwright hadn't stepped into the ace role. Walt gets slammed for the Haren trade often, but he's got to get some credit for getting a young pitcher like this into the organization.


6 Comments | Leave a comment

Interesting stuff. Good point about Walt not getting credit for the Wainwright deal. You've got to figure that we got Adam, Marquis, King ( who turned into Miles and Bigbie ). The Cards won on that trade.

I'd also like to hear if you could sum up these stats. It sort of seems like CCH and VEB weren't even close on the first two. What's your conclusion?

Well, Edmonds's injury situation was much worse than anyone took into account. I mean, everyone figured that he'd miss some time, slow down some, but the extent of the offseason surgery and its impact on him was really not expected.

Wells, heck, who knows. I know we all expected that Dave Duncan would work wonders with him, and for a time he did. It really does seem to be more of a mental thing with him. He seemed to do well out of the pen, so that might be his future from now on.

We didn't do too terribly bad on Wainwright. Of course, the numbers are a bit skewed by the two or three that thought he'd be back in the bullpen somewhere along the way, but he probably was the one that was closest to expectations on the whole.

I didn't see this post until it was referenced at VEB, but I'm surprised that nobody has noticed that the Actual line given for Kip Wells is really that achieved by Anthony Reyes.

Whoops! Thanks for the catch, 2nd edition. I've edited it to put the actual numbers in.

Something I found while looking them up: Wells had a 2.31 ERA as a reliever. I'd guess that's where people are going to try him next year.

I get so tired of hearing how Walt messed the Haren for Mulder deal up. That trade could come up 100 times and I'd make that deal 7 out of 10 times. It was right for that particular point in time. There are a great deal of critics who are playing Monday Morning Quarterback with Mulder. Everyone's a genious in hindsight.

A lot of the criticism is second-guessing and you are right, often that would have worked out. I agree, it was not a terrible deal at the time, and that's when you have to judge it.

The most troubling aspects of that trade, though, have come out recently, the fact that Duncan was adamantly against it and that Mulder may have been hurt at the time. Those should have raised red flags for Walt.

I will maintain, though, that if Haren was a lefty, he'd still be in St. Louis. I think they really wanted a left handed starter in the rotation and that's why they pulled the trigger.

Leave a comment





You can also hear Conversations With C70, along with other great podcasts, at Baseball

BallHyped Best Sports Blogs Book
This blog was featured in the Best Sports Blogs of 2010 Book! (As well as the 2012 version!)
Pick up the limited print edition
Free Best Sports Blogs ebook 

United Cardinal Bloggers


Some Guy Named Robb--The Music of Conversations With C70 (coming soon!)

Check out the UCB Network over at LockerDome!

Other Cardinal Blogs

Recommended Cardinal Forum

Other Cardinal Sites

General Baseball Blogs/Sites

Get a Cardinal theme for your browser!

Cardinals banner.jpeg

Carlos Beltran (6)
Yadier Molina (5)
Matt Holliday (4)
Jon Jay (4)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Pete Kozma (3)
Shelby Miller (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Allen Craig (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Tyler Lyons (2)
Edward Mujica (2)
Jake Westbrook (2)
David Freese (1)
Joe Kelly (1)
Seth Maness (1)
Trevor Rosenthal (1)
Michael Wacha (1)
Ty Wigginton (1)

2012 Top Hero: Matt Holliday (17)
2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Jon Jay (6)
David Freese (5)
Mitchell Boggs (4)
Joe Kelly (4)
Pete Kozma (4)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Allen Craig (3)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
Matt Adams (2)
Carlos Beltran (2)
Matt Carpenter (2)
Matt Holliday (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Seth Maness (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Adam Wainwright (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2012 Top Goat: Rafael Furcal (11)
2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2013)
Yadier Molina 96.2% (up 8.8%)
Chris Carpenter 89.8% (down 0.3%)
Derrick Goold 89.1% (up 6.3%)
Matt Holliday 88.4% (up 0.9%)
Allen Craig 88.3%
Adam Wainwright 88.2% (down 3.7%)
Jose Oquendo 87.1% (up 2.4%)
Jason Motte 86.9%
John Mozeliak 86.5% (up 1.1%)
United Cardinal Bloggers 85.2% (up 6.3%)
Bill DeWitt 85.1% (up 5.3%)
Mike Shannon 85.1% (down 0.2%)
John Rooney 84.5% (up 3.0%)
Mike Matheny 84.4% (up 3.3%)
David Freese 82.9% (down 2.6%)
Jon Jay 81.8% (up 10.7%)
Lance Berkman 80.6% (down 8.0%)
Jenifer Langosch 79.5%
Lance Lynn 79.5%
Dan McLaughlin 76.0% (up 8.0%)
Jim Hayes 73.0% (up 1.1%)
Ricky Horton 65.5% (down 2.0%)
Jaime Garcia 64.1%
Albert Pujols 59.2% (up 4.3%)
Ballpark Village 58.3%
Joe Strauss 54.3% (down 13.4%)

Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
Matthew Leach 85.5%
Pop Warner 76.7%
Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
John Vuch 68.9%
Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
Dan Lozano 58.7%

Rick Ankiel 83.9%
Chris Duncan 69.1%

Looking for St. Louis Cardinals Tickets?  TicketCity is your source for New York Yankees Tickets and World Series Tickets.

Looking for Cardinals tickets? Stop by OnlineSeats. We’ve got Blues seats and even Rams games. Go to the coasts as well and catch a Celtics game or get Dodgers tickets.