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Time For The Real Show

Posted on October 6, 2012 at 6:12 PM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Nationals
I think it was David Ross that I read in one of the stories about how that wild card game didn't seem like the playoffs.  That is was more like a tough loss during the season than the culmination of a playoff series.  It reminded me of a line in one of those great Muppet songs, about the town so small that it had "welcome on the same post that says come back again."

While that did seem to be the case for the Cardinals and the Braves, the Cardinals and Nationals will have a whole different feel.  It's that best-of-five series that St. Louis has been so good at (7-2 historically, with only a nail-biting, Game 5 loss to eventual champs Arizona in 2001 and a disappointing sweep to the Dodgers in 2009) and allows for a little more margin for error.  This, my friends, is when playoff baseball begins.

I said earlier that I thought getting past Atlanta could be the toughest chore that the Cards might have to deal with this postseason.  While that's possibly true, it's not because anybody else out there is a piece of cake.  There's a reason the Nationals are coming to St. Louis--because they had the best record in the National League.  They've got to be pretty darn good.

Looking at past history doesn't give us a lot of clues either.  You have to feel good about the fact Washington was in St. Louis just a week ago and lost two of three.  Not only did they lose those two games, they were blown out, with the Cards racking up double-digit scores in those games. They also rallied in the third game after Kyle Lohse allowed a first inning grand slam (and that was all) to tie it up in the ninth before losing it in the tenth.  That was a good series for St. Louis and it helps bring some positive vibes into the series.

To balance that, there's the fact that the Cards faced the Nats in Washington at the end of August/beginning of September.  Those games didn't go nearly as well for the Redbirds as they lost three of four, including a couple of blowouts in favor of the home team.  The one game the Cards did win was a struggling 10-9 victory that took everything they had.  They had chances in the season finale and faced a pitcher they won't see in this series, but the fact remains the opposition took four of seven from St. Louis this season.

You can see a position-by-position breakdown here and St. Louis does come out favorably in this.  I'm not sure I'd give the edge in the starting rotation to the Nationals--it's an awful slim edge if so--but both teams have a lot of weapons and a lot of ways to win ballgames.  It could be a close and well-played series.

Adam Wainwright gets the call for Game 1 and there's not a thing wrong with that.  Wainwright didn't get to participate in last year's magical run, but we all remember what he did as a closer in 2006 and he should have gotten a win in 2009 versus the Dodgers, a game more remembered for Matt Holliday's fielding gaffe and Ryan Franklin's implosion.  Postseason won't rattle Wainwright.  If anything, it may sharpen his focus.  We've seen very good Waino and not so good Waino this year and September was a similar battle (three good, two bad).  However, the last time out was a nice one run, six inning start.....against these Nationals.  Of course, that balances with the six runs in less than three innings that he threw against Washington out there.  There's no clear answer to be given from looking at his 2012 numbers, but let's look at the career ones.

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Adam LaRoche 30 25 7 1 0 1 9 4 7 .280 .367 .440 .807 0 0 0
Ryan Zimmerman 26 26 7 5 0 0 0 0 5 .269 .269 .462 .731 0 0 0
Jayson Werth 18 16 4 1 0 1 5 1 4 .250 .278 .500 .778 0 0 0
Mark DeRosa 14 11 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 .091 .286 .091 .377 0 2 0
Jesus Flores 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .100 .000 .100 0 1 0
Ian Desmond 8 8 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 .375 .375 .375 .750 0 0 0
Tom Gorzelanny 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 .143 .143 .143 .286 0 0 0
Mike Morse 8 8 2 0 0 1 2 0 2 .250 .250 .625 .875 0 0 0
Kurt Suzuki 7 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 .286 .286 .286 .571 0 0 0
Bryce Harper 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 .600 .667 .800 1.467 0 0 0
Chad Tracy 6 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .333 .500 0 0 0
Roger Bernadina 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .750 1.250 0 0 0
Zach Duke 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 .667 1.333 0 0 0
Danny Espinosa 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Gio Gonzalez 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
John Lannan 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 .500 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 0
Edwin Jackson 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.000 0 0 0
Total 158 142 37 11 0 3 22 8 36 .261 .310 .401 .711 0 3 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2012.

Tough there as well. Some good, some bad, overall middling.  If the Bueno Waino shows, the Cards are in good shape. The problem is you can't be completely sure that will be the Wainwright that takes the mound.

The Nats have little question about their starter.  Gio Gonzalez is in the running for the NL Cy Young Award as one of the favorites, having put up a 21-8 record and a 2.89 ERA.  The Cards missed Gonzalez when the club came into St. Louis, but they saw more than enough of him in Washington, as he threw a five-hit shutout against them (which, ironically, was the same game Wainwright got lit up, so we'll have a rematch on our hands in Game 1).  Accordingly, the career numbers are a little, well, skewed I guess is the right word.

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB HBP GDP
Carlos Beltran 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .143 .000 .143 0 0 0
Allen Craig 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0
Matt Holliday 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .250 .000 .250 0 0 2
Jon Jay 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .667 .750 .667 1.417 0 0 0
David Freese 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 1
Yadier Molina 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Daniel Descalso 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0
Pete Kozma 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Tony Cruz 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Shane Robinson 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Total 34 31 5 1 0 0 0 3 8 .161 .235 .194 .429 0 0 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2012.

Again, when there are only 34 total plate appearances and 32 of them came in the same game, it's tough to get a real read on a guy.  There's no doubt that he can shut them down again, though I think it'll be a little tougher this time with 40,000 screaming Cardinal fans going throughout the game.

Which leads into what could be the biggest edge the Cardinals have--experience.  There aren't many on this roster that haven't seen postseason action and in some of the biggest games.  You have Yadier Molina and Wainwright with their moments in '06 and almost everyone else was at least a part of Game 5 (NLDS) and Game 6 and 7 (World Series) last season.  The Cards have also already played the do-or-die game this season and won't likely get rattled by whatever gets thrown out there at them.

Is that enough?  It's a nice edge, but it's not everything.  After all, those Phillies from last year weren't necessarily wide-eyed newbies to the postseason scene, were they?  The Rangers had a little experience with the big moments, right?  And the Cards, well, most of them were seeing their first October experiences. We know what happened there.

I like the Cardinals in this series.  I think they have a lot of possibilities and if the offense keeps going like it has the last two weeks, I think they can take this down before it gets to Game 5.  However, it's not an upset if the Nationals win it, not at all.  Going to be a lot of fun the next week!


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Heroes
Carlos Beltran (5)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Matt Holliday (3)
Shelby Miller (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Allen Craig (2)
Daniel Descalso (2)
Jon Jay (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Edward Mujica (2)
Jake Westbrook (2)
Joe Kelly (1)
Pete Kozma (1)
Seth Maness (1)
Trevor Rosenthal (1)
Ty Wigginton (1)

2012 Top Hero: Matt Holliday (17)
2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
David Freese (5)
Jon Jay (4)
Mitchell Boggs (3)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Allen Craig (3)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Joe Kelly (3)
Pete Kozma (3)
Jaime Garcia (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Yadier Molina (2)
Carlos Beltran (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Matt Holliday (1)
Seth Maness (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Adam Wainwright (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2012 Top Goat: Rafael Furcal (11)
2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2013)
Yadier Molina 96.2% (up 8.8%)
Chris Carpenter 89.8% (down 0.3%)
Derrick Goold 89.1% (up 6.3%)
Matt Holliday 88.4% (up 0.9%)
Allen Craig 88.3%
Adam Wainwright 88.2% (down 3.7%)
Jose Oquendo 87.1% (up 2.4%)
Jason Motte 86.9%
John Mozeliak 86.5% (up 1.1%)
United Cardinal Bloggers 85.2% (up 6.3%)
Bill DeWitt 85.1% (up 5.3%)
Mike Shannon 85.1% (down 0.2%)
John Rooney 84.5% (up 3.0%)
Mike Matheny 84.4% (up 3.3%)
David Freese 82.9% (down 2.6%)
Jon Jay 81.8% (up 10.7%)
Lance Berkman 80.6% (down 8.0%)
Jenifer Langosch 79.5%
Lance Lynn 79.5%
Dan McLaughlin 76.0% (up 8.0%)
Jim Hayes 73.0% (up 1.1%)
Ricky Horton 65.5% (down 2.0%)
Jaime Garcia 64.1%
Albert Pujols 59.2% (up 4.3%)
Ballpark Village 58.3%
Joe Strauss 54.3% (down 13.4%)

2012
Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

2011
Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
Matthew Leach 85.5%
Pop Warner 76.7%
Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
John Vuch 68.9%
Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
Dan Lozano 58.7%

2009
Rick Ankiel 83.9%
Chris Duncan 69.1%


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