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Tipping Point?

Posted on October 14, 2011 at 9:58 AM
Filed Under: Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals
You know, the thing about baseball is it is amazing how quickly things change.  Batter ahead 3-0?  How often does it then work to 3-2 with a strikeout?  Score four in the first?  Before you know it the other team is right there with you.  Up 2-1 in a series, things are pretty good, life is going our way.  2-2 and you start to see just how tenuous these leads and good feelings can be.

I'm always concerned when the narrative starts building.  It seems like once everyone starts paying attention to an event, it disappears.  Guy has a quiet 20 game hitting streak?  Let the nation find out and it won't usually make it to 25.  This team has beaten that team 10 straight times?  Let that be part of the game story and the streak will often be snapped.

Yesterday's narrative seemed to be how bad Randy Wolf had been pitching and how now the Cardinals, after chasing all year, were in the driver's seat.  All day long, and if you read my Twitter feed you can see that, I felt like Admiral Ackbar was sitting on my shoulder speaking his famous phrase.

For whatever reason, whether it was just that Wolf has the Cardinals number (and as we noted yesterday, he'd had intermittent success against them this year) or if it was just an off night for the batters, the team that had been putting together rally after rally couldn't do much last night.  You kinda had that feeling when the first inning went by so quickly.  After talking about how much Milwaukee was going to stay away from Albert Pujols, he struck out in the first inning and went 1 for 4 on the night.

Matt Holliday and Allen Craig provided all the offense, Holliday on a ball that he seemed to think was a popup but carried into the stands.  After his shot, the Cards had two on with one out and a chance to start really putting the Brewers away, but they came up with nothing.  Another chance after Craig's homer, but nothing happened.  And once you give a pitcher a chance to get a rhythm, it's not going to go well for you.

It's interesting that so often this postseason, the Cards have won without hitting a home run.  They hit some in Game 2, of course, but they tacked on a lot of runs around it.  Didn't get any in Game 3 and won.  Didn't get any in the wins against Philadelphia, even when they came back against Cliff Lee.  This offense is best when they are going first to third, getting doubles, building excitement and momentum.  Not that the home runs are bad, mind you--I'll take them all day long.  It just seems like they've not been the best of omens for this team.

As for Kyle Lohse, he admitted he was rusty.  Which is a tough situation, because it seemed like he pitched better on longer rest down the stretch, so you have to rest him some but not too much?  Hard to get a bead on that.  Still, I think it was the right call.  I think I'd rather have Edwin Jackson go twice in this series than Lohse, even on the run he's been on.  That might be biased by last night's outing, I'm not sure.  It's not like Jackson went deep into the game either.

Which is the other thing.  So far the bullpen has thrown more innings than the starters.  Can they keep that up?  True, only Fernando Salas has pitched both of the last two nights, as it seems Tony La Russa has two shifts out there.  In theory, all the guys from Game 3 (save Salas) should be fresh and ready to go tonight, then everyone good for Game 6 and, if necessary, Game 7.  So as long as the starter doesn't get bombed in the first or second, the pitching should be fine.

The Cardinals have won 15 straight games when they've left town afterwards, so there's the Happy Flight Theorem at work tonight.  Of course, now that's built into the narrative.  We didn't know really how many Happy Flights there had been until after the last one.  That's going to gnaw at me some today, I think.

Looking at the matchups, though, I think the Cards will be OK.  Jaime Garcia gets his second start, but it's at home, which is a boost for him, and it's unlikely TLR will risk him in dangerous situations in the middle of the game like he did in Milwaukee.  Garcia might not go 5 tonight (I hope he does), but I don't think he gives up a lot of runs either.

Zack Greinke goes for the Brewers.  The Cards got to him for a lot of runs in Miller Park and he's been much better at home than on the road this year.  In the regular season, he posted a 3.15 ERA against the Redbirds and he only gave up two runs in seven innings the last time he pitched at Busch.  Hopefully he'll pitch more like he did in Game 1 and the bats will be able to come around.  

It really is a must-win for both teams, so it should be an intense game.  I told myself I wasn't going to get worked up about this postseason.  This was a team that seemed to be destined for a quiet ending, so anything in October was gravy.  That lasted until possibly Game 4 of the NLDS.  After that, with everything seemingly possible for this team, it's become much more nerve wracking.  I've already got that nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach and game time is still hours away.

It's best of three right now for two teams that are tied 11-11 in the season series.  Cards win today, they just need to either beat Shaun Marcum (or, I'm guessing if the Brewers are looking at elimination, Chris Narveson) or win a Chris Carpenter Game 7.  If they lose, they've got to do it both in a spot where the Brewers have only lost two in a row twice this year, though once was to the Cardinals.  It'd be a tough road for whichever team loses tonight.  Let's make sure it's them.

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2 Comments

2 Comments | Leave a comment

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WilliaminMaine | October 14, 2011 11:54 AM | Reply

This might be my favorite post I've ever read here. Terrific read, well said and great thought processes. Terrific.

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Author Profile Page Cardinal70 replied to comment from WilliaminMaine | October 14, 2011 1:17 PM | Reply

Appreciate that! Hope that I have some more upbeat and positive ones to write in the next week or so that will top it! :)

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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