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Farming It Out: UCB Top 7 Prospects

Posted on September 16, 2011 at 12:00 AM
Filed Under: St. Louis Cardinals | United Cardinal Bloggers
Every September, the United Cardinal Bloggers split off into their respective corners of the internet and come up with their list of the Top 7 Prospects in the Cardinal system.  Then we put them into one big pile and come up with a combined list.  You can see all the lists from this post at the official site and I expect this year, there will be a lot of variation.

Before we look at the current crop, though, let's take a look at my attempt from last year.  Reflecting the youth that has been in the system, there's a good chance it'll be pretty similar to the current version, but it's tradition.

2010 Top 7
1) Shelby Miller--Still eligible in 2011
2) Zack Cox--Still eligible in 2011
3) Carlos Martinez--Actually was listed as Carlos Matias last year before the name change.  No matter, he's still eligible in 2011.
4) Lance Lynn--Technically still a rookie and so technically still eligible for this list in 2011.
5) Eduardo Sanchez--See the note on Lynn.  Still eligible in 2011.
6) Matt Carpenter--Same as Lynn and Sanchez.  Still eligible in 2011.
7) Tyrell Jenkins--Still eligible in 2011.

Wow, nobody from last year's list is automatically taken off due to promotion, which I believe is a first since we've been doing this.  Add to that the fact that there are a number of other names that are vying for attention and you've got yourself some decisions to make.  After the jump, we'll get started on those.


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1) Shelby Miller, RHP

2011: 11-6, 2.77 ERA, 170 K, 53 BB, 3.21 K/BB, 1.18 WHIP, 10.95 K/9 (A+ and AA)

For the third straight year, Miller sits atop my rankings.  I don't know that these will be any different than any others, as Miller is easily considered the top guy in the Cardinal farm system.  After a full year at Quad Cities in 2010, Miller moved to A+ Palm Beach and dominated, then didn't miss a beat as he jumped into the Texas League with Springfield at AA.  The Texas League has traditionally been a hitter's league, so his 2.70 ERA on that circuit is pretty nice.  He also ended the season very strong, going eight scoreless innings and striking out nine.  There's little doubt that he'll be sent back down next season, but most likely he'll start at AAA Memphis and be available for a mid-season callup if necessary (and if the results are there, of course).  Cardinal fans have been waiting for this guy for a long time.  The wait may just about be over.


2011: 6-5, 3.93 ERA, 98 K, 44 BB, 2.23 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 10.42 K/9 (A and A+)

Martinez, the Dominican signee from last season, made his professional debut in 2011 and initially lived up to all the expectations surrounding him.  He had a 3.57 K/BB ratio at Quad Cities and had a low-2.00 ERA while he was up that way.  He got a bump up to Palm Beach and had a bit more trouble there, posting a 5.28 ERA in 46 innings (10 games).  Martinez has not yet developed endurance, as six innings was his high for the year.  He still has the same stuff that had John Mozeliak saying at the beginning of the year that he could have started in AA if it weren't for the cultural issues.  His last couple of starts were better, but he needs to work on his command if he wants to continue to be a top prospect.

3) Zack Cox, 3B

2011: 569 PA, 76 R, 27 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 68 RBI, .306/.362/.434 (A+ and AA)

I do have a soft spot for former Arkansas Razorbacks, being one myself.  Cox put together a pretty solid year at both levels, especially when you consider that at both levels he struggled at first before finding his groove.  He's still not being touted as much of a defender, more like a Brett Wallace type that may be more bat than overall player, but that bat seems to play pretty well.  I wouldn't be surprised if Cox isn't part of some sort of trade package this offseason, but if he's not, he might get a shot at AAA Memphis, though being that he finished the season in a two for 16 slump, a return to Springfield may be more likely.


2011: 347 PA, 52 R, 27 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 62 RBI, .386/.444/.584 (A)

I'm not a huge minor league guy.  I try to keep a general eye on that and know that the guys at Future Redbirds are much more likely to be informed on these guys.  So when I say that Taveras kinda came out of nowhere for me, that may be more of an indictment of my attention rather than his past history.  However, the buzz on Taveras, especially closer to the end of the season, was really hard to ignore.  He had a very strong year at Johnson City the year before and carried that with him as he moved up to Quad Cities.  Taveras brings all the tools to the plate--average, power and speed.  He only stole one base this season, but had eight last year at JC.  In a system that doesn't have just a ton of high-level offensive prospects, Taveras stands out.  He's got a long way to go, of course, and probably will see Palm Beach to start next season, but after Miller gets promoted Taveras may start attracting a lot more buzz as a huge prospect.

5) Matt Adams, 1B

2011: 513 PA, 80 R, 23 2B, 2 2B, 32 HR, 101 RBI, .302/.359/.568 (AA)

Honestly, I don't know what to make of Matt Adams.  Bob tells me to think more Brett Wallace as a comparison, but so far Wallace hasn't been as exciting as we hope for.  I know that there's been a lot of hitters that get a good year in a hitter's park and then are never heard from again.  Is that what we have with Adams?  He put up similar numbers in 2010 with Quad Cities, so it's not a complete fluke at all.  He only plays first, so unless he starts learning some outfield, the chances are he's not going to get major league time with the Cardinals (assuming a resigning of Albert Pujols), but he's definitely a guy that has gotten a few hearts around Cardinal Nation racing.


2011: 7-7, 4.11 ERA, 132 K, 39 BB, 3.39 K/BB, 1.24 WHIP, 9.87 K/9 (A)

The Cardinals really have a number of intriguing arms in the system.  Rosenthal is quickly climbing up that list.  After a dominant turn through Johnson City in 2010, Rosenthal moved to Quad Cities and slipped a bit, but still showed that he could put away hitters.  Rosenthal had some dominant outings, such as keeping Lake County scoreless for 8 2/3 in July while striking out eight, but he'd also tend to give up a number of hits and allow some runs.  I believe I read that he spent much of the year working on his off-speed stuff, which probably accounted for some of the jump in ERA.  On a side note, he has a chance to finish off the Midwest League Championship for the Bandits on Saturday.


2011: 4-2, 3.86 ERA, 55 K, 13 BB, 4.23 K/BB, 1.35 WHIP,J 8.84 K/9 (Rookie)

Jenkins is the furthest from the big leagues, but he has a lot of upside as befitting a sandwich selection in 2010.  He's still a bit on the raw side, but he's striking out almost a batter an inning and not walking anyone.  We'll see if he can keep that up as he moves up the ladder and the hitters get more patient, but it was a very good start for Jenkins this season.

Honorable mentions:  Jordan Swagerty, Kolton Wong, Ryan Jackson

Drank some coffee this year, but still eligible for the list: Matt Carpenter, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez, Brandon Dickson, Maikel Cleto

Swagerty hit three levels this year, starting at Quad Cities and ending in Springfield.  While he is still projected as a starter, I believe, he was switched to the pen to keep his innings down.  He was solid at every level and should be in Springfield to begin 2012....Wong was the first round draft pick of the Cards in 2011 and signed early enough to get some significant time at Quad Cities.  He didn't disappoint, putting up a .911 OPS in his 200+ PA there with five home runs.  Power is never likely to be part of his game, but getting on base and playing adequate defense will be.  I imagine he'll start at QC again, but may not be there for long....Jackson smashed 11 home runs at Springfield this year, which raised some eyebrows given the fact that shortstop has been such a black hole for so long.  A mid-.280s average to go along with that and Jackson likely will be at Memphis next year with a chance to see St. Louis if something goes wrong with whomever that starter is.

Even though the coffee-drinkers still have rookie eligibility and could still be considered prospects, I decided to leave them off the list entirely this year.  For one, I had enough trouble whittling down the list to seven.  Two, even though people like Lynn and Sanchez are still technically rookies, I don't really think of them that way as they both had some significant time in St. Louis this season and are very unlikely not to be in Cardinal red (assuming they aren't traded) come Opening Day.

There's the list.  Like I say, I'm not a minors guy, so it's not the most informed list you'll ever read, but hopefully it gives you a feel for the Cardinal system, a system that is definitely on the upswing.


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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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