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UCB Project: 2013 National League East Predictions

Posted on March 26, 2013 at 11:00 AM
Filed Under: Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | United Cardinal Bloggers | Washington Nationals
OK, we took care of the American League yesterday.  Now it's time to move on to real baseball and tackle the National League East.  Remember, the United Cardinal Bloggers are doing this all week long and you can keep up with everyone's posts right over here.

The NL East promises to be an interesting division this year, with a lot of young talent and some changing of the guard.  Oh, and the Marlins are there as well.


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1) Washington--The Nationals laid claim to the division title last year and there doesn't seem any reason to think they'll relinquish that anytime soon.

There are many reasons for that, but the largest number come from the rotation.  Besides the obvious superstar in Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals fill out their rotation with Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler.  That's a rotation that stacks up with any in the game and likely comes out on top.

Then there's the bullpen.  Drew Storen still too young to be considered a closer?  The Nationals went out and got Rafael Soriano.  So if one slips, the other is there.  The middle of the bullpen may be the only soft spot and even that's not as bad as many teams.

To back all that pitching up, there's a lineup with Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span.  That's a tough lineup for any team to have to go through on a regular basis.  Putting that hitting with the pitching above and it seems unlikely that the NLDS is going to be the last place we see the Nationals this year.

2) Atlanta--Have they cleaned off the field yet?  After a wild card game that got wilder than expected, Atlanta went home and made some changes to try to make sure that wouldn't happen again.

Chief among those changes were importing in the Upton brothers.  B.J. Upton came via free agency while Justin Upton was shipped in from Arizona in a deal everyone saw coming, though not many saw Atlanta on the other in.  Putting them in an outfield with Jason Heyward and in a lineup that includes Heyward and Freddie Freeman gives Atlanta a solid punch.  If Brian McCann can get healthy and Andrelton Simmons continues to develop, there's going to be some runs scored in Atlanta.

The rotation isn't much of a problem either.  Old hand Tim Hudson still seems to have plenty in the tank and there are some young guns in the rotation behind him.  How far Atlanta goes probably depends on whether Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, and Julio Teheran can make adjustments and develop their stuff at the big league level.

The bullpen locks down at the back end with Craig Kimbrel, probably the best closer in the game.  Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty have been strong in the past as well, meaning Atlanta can shorten games considerably once they get a lead.

3) Philadelphia--The team of the late 2000s isn't necessarily the team of the early 2010s.  Philadelphia has gotten older, as was emphasized last year in the injuries of Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay and the fact that they missed the playoffs.

Things don't look a whole lot stronger now.  The team brought in Michael Young, who can play a lot of positions but isn't making the team any younger.  Chase Utley isn't what he used to be.  Delmon Young was actually added in the offseason.  The brightest point may be that Domonic Brown should finally get a regular shot at playing, but that may not be enough for the Phillies.

The pitching staff should ensure they don't have to score just a ton of runs, though.  There's still Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and Halladay will be back, though there have been some concerns about his velocity in camp this spring.  Still, Halladay's the closest thing to Chris Carpenter left in the league.  If he can go out there, he'll get it done.

Jonathan Papelbon should make sure that most any lead that gets to the ninth is safe and there are a number of solid if unspectacular relievers to get those leads to him.

4) New York--The Mets are, well, the Mets.  They were able to keep David Wright and gave him a captain's C as well, but he can't do it alone.  Ike Davis should be able to help and John Buck can keep the catcher's spot warm for Travis d'Arnaud, but otherwise there's not a whole lot in the lineup.  When your GM is even acknowledging in humorous tones that the outfield is a mess, that's probably a sign of something.

The Mets also traded off their Cy Young Award winner, which typically doesn't help a rotation.  Johan Santana will start the season on the disabled list and there's no real timetable for when he might come off of it.  Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey might have to grow up quickly in the big leagues, because there's not a lot around them to take off the burden.

It looks like Frank Francisco will be the closer for the team.  I'm not sure what it says that looking at their roster didn't give me any hints there and I had to go find a depth chart.

5) Miami--Is there anyone still there, besides Giancarlo Stanton?  Well, OK, Ricky Nolasco is there, but no one expects that to be the case come August.  You can make all the arguments you want about the baseball rationale behind the fire sale this winter, but I think it's telling that the only people that want to make those are the Marlins' owners.  I can't think of a more derided move in the last 20 years (at least, not one that doesn't involve the Marlins in some way) than the Blue Jays trade from this winter.

Stanton will have a slew of intentional walks this year, because the only other bat in the lineup looks to be Logan Morrison, who isn't bad but is not necessarily the guy you want protecting your biggest bopper.  On the upside, old friend Placido Polanco has a job, as does former Cardinal farmhand Donavan Solano.

It's Nolasco and then a lot of unproven commodities.  Jacob Turner and Nathan Eovaldi might be able to turn into something, but it seems unlikely that this is the year for it.  They'll take their lumps as they learn how to be productive big leaguers.  There doesn't appear to be any truth to the rumor that the team reached out to Charlie Hough to try a comeback, only to turn him down when he wanted more than the minimum.


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Yeah, I think this order is pretty dead on. The Braves could challenge though.

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Heroes
Carlos Beltran (6)
Yadier Molina (5)
Matt Holliday (4)
Jon Jay (4)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Pete Kozma (3)
Shelby Miller (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Allen Craig (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Tyler Lyons (2)
Edward Mujica (2)
Jake Westbrook (2)
David Freese (1)
Joe Kelly (1)
Seth Maness (1)
Trevor Rosenthal (1)
Michael Wacha (1)
Ty Wigginton (1)

2012 Top Hero: Matt Holliday (17)
2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Jon Jay (6)
David Freese (5)
Mitchell Boggs (4)
Joe Kelly (4)
Pete Kozma (4)
Matt Carpenter (3)
Allen Craig (3)
Daniel Descalso (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
Matt Adams (2)
Carlos Beltran (2)
Matt Carpenter (2)
Matt Holliday (2)
Lance Lynn (2)
Seth Maness (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Adam Wainwright (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2012 Top Goat: Rafael Furcal (11)
2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2013)
Yadier Molina 96.2% (up 8.8%)
Chris Carpenter 89.8% (down 0.3%)
Derrick Goold 89.1% (up 6.3%)
Matt Holliday 88.4% (up 0.9%)
Allen Craig 88.3%
Adam Wainwright 88.2% (down 3.7%)
Jose Oquendo 87.1% (up 2.4%)
Jason Motte 86.9%
John Mozeliak 86.5% (up 1.1%)
United Cardinal Bloggers 85.2% (up 6.3%)
Bill DeWitt 85.1% (up 5.3%)
Mike Shannon 85.1% (down 0.2%)
John Rooney 84.5% (up 3.0%)
Mike Matheny 84.4% (up 3.3%)
David Freese 82.9% (down 2.6%)
Jon Jay 81.8% (up 10.7%)
Lance Berkman 80.6% (down 8.0%)
Jenifer Langosch 79.5%
Lance Lynn 79.5%
Dan McLaughlin 76.0% (up 8.0%)
Jim Hayes 73.0% (up 1.1%)
Ricky Horton 65.5% (down 2.0%)
Jaime Garcia 64.1%
Albert Pujols 59.2% (up 4.3%)
Ballpark Village 58.3%
Joe Strauss 54.3% (down 13.4%)

2012
Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

2011
Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
Matthew Leach 85.5%
Pop Warner 76.7%
Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
John Vuch 68.9%
Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
Dan Lozano 58.7%

2009
Rick Ankiel 83.9%
Chris Duncan 69.1%


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