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UCB Project: NL Central Predictions

Posted on March 23, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Filed Under: United Cardinal Bloggers
As we hit the midpoint of the week, we also hit the section nearest and dearest to our hearts.  We know the Central pretty well, so in theory this should be the most accurate.  Then again, this is also where biases come into play.....

1) St. Louis Cardinals--I know, I know, no Adam Wainwright.  That is a major blow, there is no doubt about it.  The rest of the Central has gotten better and the competition should be fierce.  All very good points and I admit, I do have rose-colored glasses.  That said, this is still a team with Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus, and Jaime Garcia.  The offensive output at short increases with Ryan Theriot.  I believe in a bounce back year for Kyle Lohse.  All of that put together means that, in my mind, the Cards squeak into October.

2) Milwaukee Brewers--I don't think you can underestimate what the Brew Crew have done this offseason.  Getting in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum does wonders for a team that was always able to slug but had problems keeping the other team from doing the same.  Even with Greinke out for a month or so, the pitching staff is going to be significantly improved.  Plus you have Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Casey McGehee to support them, so scoring still won't be a problem.

3) Cincinnati Reds--The divisional champions falling this far?  Well, third place may be only 3 games out at the end of the year, you never know.  Still, I think that the Reds got a few "career years" last year and it'll be hard to replicate that.  Jay Bruce will improve, sure, but can Joey Votto be at an MVP level again?  As much as we love him, Scott Rolen's on the downhill slide.  Losing Johnny Cueto for a while does hurt, as that means the rotation gets that much younger.  Edinson Volquez is a great front of the rotation, but can players like Mike Leake and Travis Wood do it again?  And will Aroldis Chapman have to take over for Francisco Cordero at some point this season?

4) Chicago Cubs--Keep the counter ticking, because it doesn't look like this year is "next year" for the Cubbie faithful.  Adding Matt Garza to a revived Carlos Zambrano does help the pitching staff immensely, but I think Ryan Dempster may step back a bit and on the whole, I'm not sure their rotation matches with some of the others in the division.  I'm not sold on Carlos Pena being a major offensive upgrade, either.  When he hits it, it goes, but how often will he hit it?

5) Houston Astros--The Astros played some inspired ball after the managerial change last year, but they are still paying the price for bloated contracts and a barren minor league system.  I'm personally interested to see Jordan Lyles get a callup, but he's starting at AAA.  Wandy Rodriguez is always a Cardinal killer and, after a rough start, was back to normal last year.  Still, no Roy Oswalt and no Lance Berkman puts a lot of a burden on Hunter Pence to lead this team back to glory.  I think they are a couple of years away.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates--Every year, we think that maybe the Pirates are on the way up, and they should be soon.  Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, James McDonald and Pedro Alvarez give the Pirates more talent than they have had in a long while.  That said, it's still not quite enough to get them over the .500 mark.  The curse of Francisco Cabrera will continue on for another season.


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2 Comments

2 Comments | Leave a comment

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WilliaminMaine | March 23, 2011 11:46 PM | Reply

That would be my order exactly.

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Tim | March 24, 2011 1:24 PM | Reply

The Cardinals may have worse defense than the Brewers, not that much better hitting, and worse pitching now that Wainwright is out. Berkman is going to be the worst defender in the league this year.

Tough prediction to make there.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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