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UCB Project: Postseason Predictions

Posted on March 25, 2011 at 11:39 PM
Filed Under: United Cardinal Bloggers
OK, we've taken a look at all the different divisions.  Now let's take a guess at how October will pan out.

ALDS: Boston vs. Texas.  With the wild card likely coming out of the AL East, Boston as the presumptive best AL team will face the weaker of the other two divisional champs.  I think Texas can take a step back and still win the division, so let's guess it's them.  Without Cliff Lee, I don't think Texas has enough to overcome the Boston juggernaut.  Boston in 3.

ALDS: Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay.  With the Twins not having to take on the Yankees for once, they have a much stronger chance of getting past the first round.  This could be a struggle, though, as the two teams seem pretty even.  Minnesota in 5.

ALCS: Boston vs. Minnesota.  Again, Boston just looks to have too much for the rest of the division.  Boston in 5.

NLDS: Philadelphia vs. Colorado.  I like Colorado's chances to take the wild card, but not to go much farther.  When the Phillies might not even have to through Cole Hamels in the series, you know they've got some aces.  Philadelphia in 3.

NLDS: San Francisco vs. St. Louis.  A good postseason rematch, harking back to 1987 and 2002.  If the Cards had Adam Wainwright, I'd give them the edge, but they won't, so Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain would probably be enough to get them past the Birds.  San Francisco in 4.

NLCS: Philadelphia vs. San Francisco.  A rematch of last year, but the addition of Cliff Lee tilts the scales the other way.  Philadelphia in 6.

WS: Philadelphia vs. Boston.  It's what everyone has penciled in, a safe money pick, but there's a reason.  Both teams look pretty great on paper, though we'll have to see how that translates to actual results.  Philadelphia has better pitching, Boston has a better offense.  Some close games and the bullpens might make a difference. Boston in 7.

Now, let's take wild random stabs at some of the awards.

Manager of the Year: Terry Francona (AL), Jim Tracy (NL).  Francona is going to have the best team, but there won't be any other obvious candidates.  Tracy will have the Rockies in a tight race with San Francisco all year and get some credit for that.

Rookie of the Year: Desmond Jennings (AL), Brandon Belt (NL).  Neither of these guys will be opening day starters, but will have a Buster Posey-like impact on the races during the summer and garner lots of attention.

Cy Young Award: Francisco Liriano (AL), Cliff Lee (NL).  Liriano will be back to his pre-surgery form on a winning team.  Lee will continue his run of good pitching in a place where he's comfortable.

Most Valuable Player: Adrian Gonzalez (AL), Albert Pujols (NL).  I think Gonzalez's move to Fenway might be a bit overrated, but even if he's close to the projections, the offseason attention will help boost him past others.  As for Albert, well, he's the best player in the game and is healthy for the first time in a few years.  Plus if the Cardinals do wind up winning the division, he's going to get a lot of credit for it.


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EM | March 26, 2011 11:52 AM | Reply

I would like to think somebody could stop the Sox and Phils. But it isn't exactly a reasonable thing to expect.

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Heroes
Matt Holliday (5)
Matt Carpenter (4)
Rafael Furcal (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jon Jay (3)
Kyle Lohse (3)
Lance Lynn (3)
Yadier Molina (3)
David Freese (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Lance Berkman (1)
Allen Craig (1)
Shane Robinson (1)
Fernando Salas (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Hero: Lance Berkman (24)
2010 Top Heroes: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols (24)
2009 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (28)
2008 Top Hero: Albert Pujols (25)

Goats
Matt Holliday (4)
Carlos Beltran (3)
David Freese (3)
Jaime Garcia (3)
Jason Motte (3)
Marc Rzepczynski (3)
Adam Wainwright (3)
Rafael Furcal (2)
Tyler Greene (2)
J.C. Romero (2)
Fernando Salas (2)
Mitchell Boggs (1)
Matt Carpenter (1)
Tony Cruz (1)
Daniel Descalso (1)
Jon Jay (1)
Erik Komatsu (1)
Kyle Lohse (1)
Victor Marte (1)
Eduardo Sanchez (1)
Jake Westbrook (1)

2011 Top Goat: Ryan Theriot (12)
2010 Top Goat: Brendan Ryan (14)
2009 Top Goats: Rick Ankiel and Todd Wellemeyer (13)
2008 Top Goat: Troy Glaus (13)

2012 Happy Flights
Happy Flights: 7
Happy Flight Opportunities: 12
Happy Flight %: 58%

Through 5/20

    Cardinal Nation Approval Ratings (March 2012)
    Adam Wainwright 91.9% (down 2.8%)
    Chris Carpenter 90.1% (up 3.2%)
    Lance Berkman 88.6%
    Tony La Russa 88.2% (up 17.4%)
    Yadier Molina 87.4% (up 3.7%)
    Matt Holliday 87.3% (down 3.8%)
    David Freese 85.5%
    John Mozeliak 85.4% (up 13.3%)
    Mike Shannon 85.3% (up 0.4%)
    Jose Oquendo 84.7%
    Derrick Goold 82.8% (down 5.0%)
    Mark McGwire 82.6% (up 20.1%)
    John Rooney 81.5% (down 2.8%)
    Mike Matheny 81.1%
    Bill DeWitt 79.8% (up 8.8%)
    United Cardinal Bloggers 78.9%
    Skip Schumaker 73.3% (up 9.2%)
    Jim Hayes 71.9% (down 4.2%)
    Jon Jay 71.1%
    B.J. Rains 69.5% (down 0.9%)
    Kyle Lohse 68.9% (up 13.8%)
    Dan McLaughlin 68.0%
    Joe Strauss 67.7% (up 10.2%)
    Ricky Horton 67.5% (down 1.6%)
    Al Hrabosky 66.4% (up 3.2%)
    Albert Pujols 54.9% (down 45.5%)
    Colby Rasmus 46.5% (down 35.3%)

    2011
    Dave Duncan 87.9% (up 0.9%)
    Matthew Leach 85.5%
    Pop Warner 76.7%
    Ryan Franklin 72.8% (up 3.1%)
    John Vuch 68.9%
    Jeff Luhnow 66.4%
    Dan Lozano 58.7%

    2009
    Rick Ankiel 83.9%
    Chris Duncan 69.1%


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